Parma Calcio 1913 v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 16
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
3 – 11
xG per shot
0.35 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.28
Goals − xG
+0.59 – -0.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
18.2%
Draw
23.4%
Bologna win
58.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–2.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 1.41 xGBologna 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Bologna |
Remo Freuler | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 2' |
Bologna |
Dan Ndoye | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Davide Calabria |
| 14' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Calabria |
| 16' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tommaso Pobega |
| 24' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Remo Freuler |
| 27' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mandela Keita |
| 29' |
Bologna |
Jhon Lucumí | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 31' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 40' |
Bologna |
Jhon Lucumí | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 42' |
Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Calabria |
| 72' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 78' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Simon Sohm | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Dennis Man |
| 83' |
Bologna |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Charalampos Lykogiannis |
| 86' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Calabria |
| 91' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Dennis Man | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 92' |
Bologna |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Sohm MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Botond Balogh DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emanuele Valeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Enrico Del Prato DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pontus Almqvist FWL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dennis Man Sub | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.12 | 0.63 |
| Mateo Pellegrino Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Løvik Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Drissa Camara Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Castro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Remo Freuler MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Dan Ndoye FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Federico Ravaglia GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Davide Calabria DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Nikola Moro MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Tommaso Pobega MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Riccardo Orsolini Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lewis Ferguson Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |