Parma Calcio 1913 v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 7 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 26
On target
0 – 8
Shots in box
3 – 16
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-0.26 – -1.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
12.8%
Draw
22.9%
Internazionale win
64.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.84–2.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–2.26 | 1-2 10% | 65% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 0.26 xGInternazionale 3.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 5' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 7' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 7' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Augusto |
| 10' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 13' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 14' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 16' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 20' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 27' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 28' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 28' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Emanuele Valeri |
| 31' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Carlos Augusto |
| 32' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 37' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 40' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 45' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sascha Britschgi |
| 50' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Enrico Del Prato | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 53' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yann Bisseck |
| 56' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 61' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 63' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 82' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 91' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 97' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nicolò Barella |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.75 | 1.81 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.96 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.53 | 1.70 |
| Carlos Augusto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.03 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.93 | 0.12 | 1.57 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 1.09 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.76 |
| Nicolò Barella Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Piotr Zielinski Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Thuram Sub | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Acerbi Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrico Del Prato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Oliver Sørensen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emanuele Valeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sascha Britschgi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jacob Ondrejka FWL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Gaetano Oristanio FWR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pontus Almqvist Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Ordóñez Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Cutrone Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamín Cremaschi Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |