Parma Calcio 1913 v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Parma Calcio 1913

1–1

0.62 – 2.10 xG

Monza

Shots

7 – 16

On target

3 – 5

Shots in box

7 – 13

xG per shot

0.09 – 0.13

Set-piece xG

0.30 – 0.52

Goals − xG

+0.38 – -1.11

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 6 Sep, 07:53 · 5h before kick-off

Parma Calcio 1913 win

30.3%

model 35.0%

Draw

29.3%

model 28.5%

Monza win

40.4%

model 36.6%

302940

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.3%
0-1 11.8%
1-0 11.5%
0-0 10.2%
1-2 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	40.1%	Under 2.5	59.9%
BTTS yes	46.4%	BTTS no	53.6%
Parma Calcio 1913 1+	67.6%	Parma Calcio 1913 2+	31.1%
Monza 1+	68.6%	Monza 2+	32.3%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

88/100

Data quality

85/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

A half without a goal

Goal in both halves · usually 48%

54.5% fair odds 1.84

moderate signal · 1035 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Parma Calcio 1913 (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 86%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Monza carry the stronger rating, 1580 Elo against 1457.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Monza have an estimated 40.4% win probability, against 30.3% for Parma Calcio 1913 and 29.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.13 for Parma Calcio 1913 and 1.16 for Monza.

Why Parma Calcio 1913

At home Parma Calcio 1913 average 0.93 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.3%. A combined 2.29 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.13 to 1.16. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Monza can win

Monza carry the stronger rating, 1580 Elo against 1457.

Key players

Parma Calcio 1913's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateo Pellegrino (0.33), Simone Lontani (0.30), El Bilal Touré (0.29). Monza's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gustavo Varela (0.42), Keita (0.25), Ricardo Mangas (0.24).

Availability

1 of Parma Calcio 1913's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Parma Calcio 1913's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Monza's top three contributors did not start their last match. Monza changed goalkeeper for their last match. 82% of Monza's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Parma Calcio 1913: 45% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 17.5 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces. Monza: 39% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Monza are the model's most likely outcome at 40.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. Confidence 88/100, data quality 85/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWLLLWLLD last 10 scored 7 from 7.8 xG conceded 11 from 18.2 xG

Monza are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLWLLLLD last 10 scored 7 from 11.3 xG conceded 22 from 16.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	352837	1.13–1.16	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg	392833	1.23–1.10	1-1 13%	41%	47%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	392833	1.22–1.10	1-1 13%	41%	47%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win	41.9%	43.0%	34.2%	1.26×	2.33
Parma Calcio 1913 to win	29.6%	27.9%	39.3%	0.71×	3.59
Draw	28.5%	27.9%	26.7%	1.05×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & not both score	26.3%	25.2%	21.0%	1.20×	3.97
Parma Calcio 1913 & not both score	18.2%	17.9%	22.7%	0.79×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	17.9%	17.9%	18.5%	0.97×	5.58
Monza & both teams score	15.7%	17.9%	13.3%	1.35×	5.58
Parma Calcio 1913 & both teams score	11.4%	13.2%	16.7%	0.79×	7.55
Draw & not both score	10.6%	13.2%	8.3%	1.60×	7.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & under 3.5	33.1%	30.9%	26.8%	1.15×	3.24
Monza & over 1.5	28.7%	26.0%	24.7%	1.05×	3.84
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 3.5	24.2%	21.6%	29.5%	0.73×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	23.8%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	23.8%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Monza & under 2.5	21.4%	21.6%	16.2%	1.34×	4.62
Monza & over 2.5	20.5%	21.6%	18.1%	1.19×	4.62
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	29.0%	0.62×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.9%	18.0%	18.5%	0.97×	5.56
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 2.5	15.9%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 2.5	13.7%	12.9%	22.3%	0.58×	7.77
Monza & under 1.5	13.2%	12.9%	9.6%	1.34×	7.78
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 1.5	10.6%	12.9%	10.5%	1.23×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	10.6%	12.9%	8.3%	1.55×	7.78
Monza & over 3.5	8.9%	7.9%	7.5%	1.05×	12.69
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	9.9%	0.79×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (1UP)	55.5%	57.9%	50.9%	1.14×	1.73
Parma Calcio 1913 (1UP)	44.5%	39.0%	54.6%	0.71×	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (2UP)	41.9%	47.6%	36.6%	1.30×	2.10
Parma Calcio 1913 (2UP)	29.6%	24.8%	40.9%	0.60×	4.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.0%	36.2%	36.0%	1.01×	2.77
Parma Calcio 1913 to win 2nd half	30.1%	34.4%	34.6%	1.00×	2.91
Monza to win 2nd half	29.9%	26.3%	29.6%	0.89×	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (+2.5)	96.9%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Monza (+1.5)	89.1%	88.5%	82.8%	1.07×	1.13
Monza (+0.5)	70.4%	73.7%	60.7%	1.21×	1.36
Parma Calcio 1913 (+0.5)	58.1%	57.0%	65.8%	0.87×	1.75
Monza (-0.5)	41.9%	43.0%	34.2%	1.26×	2.33
Parma Calcio 1913 (-0.5)	29.6%	26.3%	39.3%	0.67×	3.80
Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5)	10.9%	11.5%	17.2%	0.67×	8.70
Parma Calcio 1913 (-2.5)	3.1%	3.7%	7.7%	0.49×	26.81

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede	63.1%	67.2%	70.8%	0.95×	1.49
Monza clean sheet	36.9%	32.8%	29.2%	1.12×	3.05

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 1st half	70.9%	76.9%	58.7%	1.31×	1.30
Monza to concede in 1st half	29.1%	23.1%	41.3%	0.56×	4.33

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 3.5 goals	96.2%	97.6%	97.1%	1.01×	1.03
Monza under 2.5 goals	86.9%	87.9%	88.3%	1.00×	1.14
Monza over 0.5 goals	71.2%	71.9%	69.1%	1.04×	1.39
Monza under 1.5 goals	64.6%	63.0%	65.6%	0.96×	1.59
Monza over 1.5 goals	35.4%	37.0%	34.4%	1.08×	2.70
Monza under 0.5 goals	28.8%	28.1%	30.9%	0.91×	3.56
Monza over 2.5 goals	13.1%	12.1%	11.7%	1.03×	8.25
Monza over 3.5 goals	3.8%	2.4%	2.9%	0.83×	40.99

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 1st half	88.0%	89.6%	90.1%	0.99×	1.12
Monza under 0.5 in 1st half	55.1%	62.8%	58.8%	1.07×	1.59
Monza over 0.5 in 1st half	44.9%	37.2%	41.2%	0.90×	2.69
Monza over 1.5 in 1st half	12.0%	10.4%	9.9%	1.05×	9.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (away no bet)	50.9%	51.2%	59.6%	0.86×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	49.1%	48.8%	40.4%	1.21×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza even goals	54.1%	52.8%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Monza odd goals	45.9%	47.2%	44.4%	1.06×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.9%	92.1%	87.2%	1.06×	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.1%	7.9%	12.8%	0.62×	12.62

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	52.6%	50.6%	59.4%	0.85×	1.98
Both halves under 1.5 goals	47.4%	49.4%	40.6%	1.22×	2.03

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	45.8%	45.9%	52.8%	0.87×	2.18
Monza to score 2+ in a row	29.2%	25.2%	27.6%	0.92×	3.97
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 2+ in a row	20.3%	19.3%	31.0%	0.62×	5.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.8%	12.0%	17.3%	0.69×	8.31
Monza to score 3+ in a row	9.0%	5.6%	7.8%	0.72×	17.81
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 3+ in a row	4.9%	2.7%	9.7%	0.28×	37.14

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	13.2%	11.5%	9.6%	1.20×	8.73
1-1	13.2%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.73
0-0	10.6%	11.5%	8.3%	1.38×	8.73
1-0	10.6%	11.5%	10.5%	1.09×	8.73
0-2	8.2%	7.4%	6.8%	1.10×	13.46
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.46
2-1	6.6%	7.4%	9.2%	0.81×	13.46
2-0	5.3%	7.4%	6.8%	1.10×	13.46
0-3	3.4%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.57
0-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.67×	58.59
1-3	3.4%	1.7%	1.9%	0.89×	58.57
1-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.59
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.57
2-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.58
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.1%	13.38×	58.59
3-0	1.8%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.58
3-1	2.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.58
3-2	1.4%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.58
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.91×	58.59
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.59
4-1	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.49×	58.59
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.38×	58.59
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
Any other score	1.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza leading at HT (DNB)	66.4%	73.3%	49.9%	1.47×	1.36
Parma Calcio 1913 leading at HT (DNB)	33.6%	26.7%	50.1%	0.53×	3.75

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 or Monza (12)	71.5%	72.1%	73.3%	0.98×	1.39
Monza or draw (X2)	70.4%	72.1%	60.7%	1.19×	1.39
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw (1X)	58.1%	57.0%	65.8%	0.87×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw at HT	82.3%	84.1%	72.4%	1.16×	1.19
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw at HT	65.2%	66.0%	72.6%	0.91×	1.52
Parma Calcio 1913 or Monza at HT	52.5%	47.5%	54.8%	0.87×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw (1UP)	70.4%	79.8%	66.2%	1.21×	1.25
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw (1UP)	58.1%	62.7%	71.0%	0.88×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw in 2nd half	70.1%	73.7%	70.4%	1.05×	1.36
Monza or draw in 2nd half	69.9%	65.6%	65.4%	1.00×	1.52
Parma Calcio 1913 or Monza in 2nd half	60.0%	63.8%	64.0%	1.00×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	68.5%	70.0%	64.4%	1.09×	1.43
Neither half drawn	31.5%	30.0%	35.6%	0.84×	3.33

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (DNB)	58.6%	58.2%	46.5%	1.25×	1.72
Parma Calcio 1913 (DNB)	41.4%	41.8%	53.5%	0.78×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score first	49.6%	45.7%	44.0%	1.04×	2.19
Parma Calcio 1913 to score first	39.8%	32.7%	47.8%	0.68×	3.06
No goal scored	10.6%	9.7%	8.3%	1.17×	10.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.0%	54.7%	51.8%	1.06×	1.83
Both teams to score	45.0%	45.3%	48.2%	0.94×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	47.9%	44.2%	41.3%	1.07×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	31.8%	34.4%	36.6%	0.94×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	13.2%	12.3%	11.7%	1.05×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	7.1%	8.4%	10.6%	0.79×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.7%	89.1%	87.1%	1.02×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.3%	10.9%	12.9%	0.85×	9.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.0%	75.0%	75.3%	1.00×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.0%	25.0%	24.7%	1.01×	4.00

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.0%	62.6%	63.5%	0.99×	1.60
Both score 2nd half only	19.9%	15.8%	19.9%	0.79×	6.34
Both score 1st half only	10.1%	10.4%	11.9%	0.88×	9.58
Both score in both halves	3.0%	4.9%	5.0%	0.99×	20.33

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.9%	85.5%	83.3%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	13.1%	14.5%	16.7%	0.87×	6.88

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	55.6%	57.2%	48.1%	1.19×	1.75
A goal in each half	44.4%	42.8%	51.9%	0.82×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	47.4%	48.0%	0.99×	2.11
0-1 goals	34.4%	30.7%	28.1%	1.09×	3.26
4-6 goals	18.1%	20.2%	23.3%	0.87×	4.94
7+ goals	0.8%	1.8%	0.9%	2.02×	55.36

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score exactly 1	35.8%	36.0%	34.8%	1.03×	2.78
Monza to score exactly 0	28.8%	27.4%	30.9%	0.89×	3.65
Monza to score exactly 2	22.3%	22.4%	22.8%	0.98×	4.47
Monza to score 3+	13.1%	12.8%	11.7%	1.09×	7.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 0	36.9%	35.6%	29.2%	1.22×	2.81
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.6%	32.1%	1.11×	2.81
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 2	18.4%	18.9%	24.6%	0.77×	5.30
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 3+	8.0%	10.3%	14.3%	0.72×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.5%	52.5%	45.2%	1.16×	1.91
Monza leading at HT	34.8%	34.0%	27.4%	1.24×	2.94
Parma Calcio 1913 leading at HT	17.7%	15.9%	27.6%	0.58×	6.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza -1: 1	58.1%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Monza -1: X	23.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Monza -1: 2	18.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:1)	70.4%	70.9%	60.7%	1.17×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	18.7%	17.8%	22.2%	0.80×	5.62
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:1)	10.9%	13.8%	17.2%	0.80×	7.24

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:2)	89.1%	87.0%	82.8%	1.05×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.8%	7.7%	9.7%	0.80×	12.97
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:2)	3.1%	3.8%	7.7%	0.49×	26.51

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:3)	96.9%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	42.04
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	3.2%	0.74×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.3%	0.52×	83.41
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.17×	83.46

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (1:0)	58.1%	58.2%	65.8%	0.88×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	23.3%	21.7%	20.0%	1.09×	4.60
Monza (1:0)	18.6%	17.0%	14.3%	1.19×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (2:0)	81.4%	84.5%	85.7%	0.99×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.2%	10.4%	8.5%	1.22×	9.62
Monza (2:0)	6.4%	6.5%	5.9%	1.10×	15.50

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.9%	46.8%	46.3%	1.01×	2.14
Halves equal	28.2%	26.5%	26.9%	0.99×	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.9%	26.5%	26.9%	0.99×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede	71.2%	73.0%	69.1%	1.06×	1.37
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet	28.8%	27.0%	30.9%	0.87×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet in 1st half	55.1%	62.8%	58.8%	1.07×	1.59
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede in 1st half	44.9%	37.2%	41.2%	0.90×	2.69

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 3.5 goals	98.1%	96.4%	95.4%	1.01×	1.04
Parma Calcio 1913 under 2.5 goals	92.0%	92.2%	85.7%	1.08×	1.08
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 goals	73.6%	74.2%	61.2%	1.21×	1.35
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 goals	63.1%	63.4%	70.8%	0.90×	1.58
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 goals	36.9%	36.6%	29.2%	1.25×	2.73
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 goals	26.4%	25.8%	38.8%	0.66×	3.88
Parma Calcio 1913 over 2.5 goals	8.0%	7.8%	14.3%	0.54×	12.88
Parma Calcio 1913 over 3.5 goals	1.9%	3.6%	4.6%	0.79×	27.48

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 in 1st half	95.3%	96.6%	90.2%	1.07×	1.04
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 in 1st half	70.9%	79.1%	58.7%	1.35×	1.26
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 in 1st half	29.1%	20.9%	41.3%	0.51×	4.79
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 in 1st half	4.7%	3.4%	9.8%	0.34×	29.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (home no bet)	59.5%	56.7%	56.2%	1.01×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	40.5%	43.3%	43.8%	0.99×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 even goals	56.8%	55.5%	56.9%	0.97×	1.80
Parma Calcio 1913 odd goals	43.2%	44.5%	43.1%	1.03×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	39.1%	38.7%	34.2%	1.13×	2.58
HT 0-1	23.3%	24.2%	18.4%	1.32×	4.13
HT 1-0	13.5%	11.1%	18.4%	0.60×	9.04
HT 1-1	8.0%	7.1%	10.6%	0.67×	14.09
HT 0-2	6.9%	7.1%	5.5%	1.29×	14.11
Any other HT score	2.8%	2.2%	3.1%	0.73×	44.72
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.2%	2.6%	0.88×	44.75
HT 2-0	2.3%	2.2%	5.5%	0.41×	44.76
HT 2-1	1.4%	2.2%	2.3%	0.97×	44.83
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.2%	0.6%	3.49×	44.91

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza at HT / Monza at FT	26.4%	26.6%	19.4%	1.37×	3.76
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.0%	16.8%	16.7%	1.01×	5.94
Draw at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	14.3%	12.7%	15.7%	0.81×	7.88
Draw at HT / Monza at FT	14.2%	12.7%	13.0%	0.98×	7.88
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	13.0%	12.7%	21.3%	0.59×	7.89
Monza at HT / Draw at FT	6.1%	6.0%	5.7%	1.05×	16.61
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.4%	4.5%	0.77×	29.15
Monza at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	2.3%	3.4%	2.6%	1.34×	29.19
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Monza at FT	1.3%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.23

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score last	49.6%	47.0%	43.9%	1.07×	2.13
Parma Calcio 1913 to score last	39.8%	38.4%	48.0%	0.80×	2.60
No goal scored	10.6%	9.1%	8.3%	1.09×	11.03

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.4%	90.9%	91.7%	0.99×	1.10
Monza to lead by 1 at any time	55.5%	55.0%	50.9%	1.08×	1.82
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 1 at any time	44.5%	39.1%	54.6%	0.72×	2.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	38.3%	34.8%	42.7%	0.81×	2.88
Monza to lead by 2 at any time	23.4%	19.6%	20.2%	0.97×	5.10
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 2 at any time	15.0%	14.9%	23.0%	0.65×	6.72
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.7%	10.4%	14.7%	0.71×	9.58
Monza to lead by 3 at any time	7.7%	6.5%	6.4%	1.02×	15.31
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.6%	8.4%	0.19×	61.86

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	89.0%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.7%	83.5%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.5%	72.4%	67.7%	1.07×	1.38
2-6 goals	64.8%	63.5%	71.2%	0.89×	1.58
2-5 goals	62.9%	63.5%	69.3%	0.92×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.9%	59.2%	61.0%	0.97×	1.69
1-2 goals	50.5%	53.1%	44.8%	1.19×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.7%	48.0%	1.01×	2.06
3-6 goals	38.1%	39.2%	46.3%	0.85×	2.55
3-5 goals	36.2%	39.2%	44.4%	0.88×	2.55
3-4 goals	31.2%	35.4%	36.1%	0.98×	2.83
4-6 goals	18.1%	18.6%	23.3%	0.80×	5.37
4-5 goals	16.2%	18.6%	21.4%	0.87×	5.38
5-6 goals	6.9%	8.7%	10.3%	0.85×	11.45
7+ goals	0.8%	2.5%	0.9%	2.83×	39.55

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza never behind	44.9%	48.4%	45.4%	1.07×	2.07
Parma Calcio 1913 never behind	33.9%	35.5%	49.1%	0.72×	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.4%	50.8%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.6%	49.2%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.6%	57.9%	56.8%	1.02×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.4%	42.1%	43.2%	0.97×	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.7%	52.0%	51.7%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.3%	48.0%	48.3%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.3%	95.5%	97.2%	0.98×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.4%	87.7%	91.7%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	81.1%	82.4%	75.9%	1.09×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	65.6%	66.3%	71.9%	0.92×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	61.1%	61.7%	52.9%	1.17×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	38.9%	38.3%	47.1%	0.81×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	34.4%	33.7%	28.1%	1.20×	2.96
Over 3.5 goals	18.9%	17.6%	24.1%	0.73×	5.67
Under 0.5 goals	10.6%	12.3%	8.3%	1.49×	8.12
Over 4.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	11.1%	0.70×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	2.7%	4.5%	2.8%	1.60×	22.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.2%	97.3%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.1%	97.3%	96.9%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	91.3%	92.5%	87.2%	1.06×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	76.3%	75.9%	68.7%	1.11×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	53.1%	51.8%	62.6%	0.83×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	46.9%	48.2%	37.4%	1.29×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	23.7%	24.1%	31.3%	0.77×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	8.7%	7.5%	12.8%	0.59×	13.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.9%	2.8%	3.1%	0.90×	36.36
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.8%	2.7%	0.9%	3.02×	36.42

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.0%	92.9%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	75.8%	78.6%	70.7%	1.11×	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	60.9%	63.6%	65.8%	0.97×	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	39.1%	36.4%	34.2%	1.06×	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	24.2%	21.4%	29.3%	0.73×	4.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.0%	7.1%	8.2%	0.87×	14.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.6%	85.3%	82.8%	1.03×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.9%	77.9%	77.8%	1.00×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.5%	61.9%	57.1%	1.08×	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	37.5%	38.1%	42.9%	0.89×	2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.1%	22.1%	22.2%	0.99×	4.53
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.4%	14.7%	17.2%	0.85×	6.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to score in both halves	86.0%	85.8%	76.1%	1.13×	1.17
Monza not to score in both halves	78.5%	78.4%	78.7%	1.00×	1.28
Monza to score in both halves	21.5%	21.6%	21.3%	1.01×	4.64
Parma Calcio 1913 to score in both halves	14.0%	14.2%	23.9%	0.60×	7.04

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	45.0%	46.6%	48.2%	0.97×	2.14
Only Monza scores	26.3%	26.1%	21.0%	1.24×	3.83
Only Parma Calcio 1913 scores	18.2%	16.1%	22.7%	0.71×	6.20
Neither team scores	10.6%	10.9%	8.3%	1.32×	9.15

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.7%	25.0%	25.0%	1.00×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	23.8%	22.7%	19.9%	1.14×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	20.0%	17.5%	23.1%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	11.2%	12.1%	13.1%	0.92×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	10.6%	12.1%	8.3%	1.45×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	5.0%	7.6%	8.4%	0.90×	13.14
6 or more goals	2.7%	4.4%	2.8%	1.57×	22.63

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	37.5%	39.9%	42.9%	0.93×	2.50
1 goal in 2nd half	35.4%	39.7%	35.1%	1.13×	2.52
No goals in 2nd half	27.1%	29.6%	22.2%	1.33×	3.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to win both halves	94.7%	94.0%	90.2%	1.04×	1.06
Monza not to win both halves	89.6%	88.1%	91.3%	0.97×	1.14
Monza to win both halves	10.4%	11.9%	8.7%	1.37×	8.44
Parma Calcio 1913 to win both halves	5.3%	6.0%	9.8%	0.61×	16.73

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to win neither half	57.5%	59.4%	47.7%	1.25×	1.68
Monza to win either half	54.3%	54.8%	48.3%	1.13×	1.82
Monza to win neither half	45.7%	45.2%	51.7%	0.87×	2.21
Parma Calcio 1913 to win either half	42.5%	40.6%	52.3%	0.78×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to win to nil	81.8%	83.0%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
Monza not to win to nil	73.7%	75.3%	79.0%	0.95×	1.33
Monza to win to nil	26.3%	24.7%	21.0%	1.18×	4.04
Parma Calcio 1913 to win to nil	18.2%	17.0%	22.7%	0.75×	5.87

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.5%	27.8%	26.7%	1.04×	3.59
Monza by 1	23.3%	24.1%	20.0%	1.21×	4.14
Parma Calcio 1913 by 1	18.7%	16.9%	22.2%	0.76×	5.90
Monza by 2	12.2%	11.8%	8.5%	1.38×	8.46
Parma Calcio 1913 by 2	7.8%	7.2%	9.7%	0.75×	13.80
Monza by 3+	6.4%	7.2%	5.9%	1.23×	13.81
Parma Calcio 1913 by 3+	3.1%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.97

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Parma Calcio 1913 0.62 xGMonza 2.11 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right Monza attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
2'	Parma Calcio 1913	Diego Carlos	0.06	Set Piece	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Enrico Del Prato
10'	Monza	Dany Mota	0.47	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Samuele Birindelli
13'	Monza	Dany Mota	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Eddy Kouadio
17'	Parma Calcio 1913	El Bilal Touré	0.14	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Emanuele Valeri
20'	Monza	Andrea Carboni	0.17	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Michael Folorunsho
21'	Monza	Dany Mota	0.31	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Andrea Carboni
32'	Monza	Lorenzo Lucchesi	0.01	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Omari Forson
34'	Parma Calcio 1913	Giovanni Fabbian	0.11	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Mariano Troilo
35'	Monza	Omari Forson	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Samuele Birindelli
37'	Monza	Jay Robinson	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Ricardo Mangas
45'	Monza	Michael Folorunsho	0.01	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Samuele Birindelli
47'	Monza	Omari Forson	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Dany Mota
52'	Parma Calcio 1913	Enrico Del Prato	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Emanuele Valeri
57'	Monza	Andrea Colpani	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Dany Mota
59'	Parma Calcio 1913	Simone Lontani	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Emanuele Valeri
59'	Parma Calcio 1913	Simone Lontani	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
62'	Monza	Eddy Kouadio	0.42	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Andrea Colpani
62'	Monza	Samuele Birindelli	0.01	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
65'	Parma Calcio 1913	El Bilal Touré	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Matija Frigan
75'	Monza	Michael Folorunsho	0.31	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Ricardo Mangas
83'	Monza	Lorenzo Lucchesi	0.05	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Andrea Colpani
86'	Monza	Yvan Maye	0.01	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Andrea Colpani
94'	Monza	Michael Folorunsho	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Demba Thiam

Players

Monza

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Michael Folorunsho MC	90	0	0	3	1	0.36	0.17	1.09
Lorenzo Lucchesi DC	90	0	0	2	0	0.06	0.00	0.95
Samuele Birindelli DMR	90	0	0	1	3	0.01	0.53	0.77
Ricardo Mangas DML	90	0	1	0	2	0.00	0.34	0.54
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.54
Demba Thiam GK	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.17
Eddy Kouadio DC	84	0	0	1	1	0.42	0.07	0.27
Andrea Carboni DC	84	0	0	1	1	0.17	0.31	0.99
Jay Robinson AMC	84	1	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.88
Dany Mota FW	65	0	0	3	2	0.84	0.16	1.20
Omari Forson AMC	57	0	0	2	1	0.14	0.01	0.87
Andrea Colpani Sub	33	0	0	1	3	0.07	0.48	0.07
Leonardo Colombo Sub	25	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Yvan Maye Sub	6	0	0	1	0	0.01	0.00	0.04
Adam Bakoune Sub	6	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mathis Mout Sub	6	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00