Parma Calcio 1913 v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 12
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 1.19
Goals − xG
+1.36 – -0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
20.0%
Draw
25.8%
Roma win
54.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWWLLLWLL last 10
scored 7
from 7.5 xG
conceded 11
from 16.4 xG
Roma are finishing above their chances — 2.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWDWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.4 xG
conceded 8
from 8.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.74–1.43 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.93–1.56 | 0-1 13% | 45% | 48% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 0.64 xGRoma 3.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Nesta Elphege | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 12' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nesta Elphege |
| 19' |
 Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 21' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Paulo Dybala |
| 28' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Paulo Dybala |
| 29' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Ordóñez |
| 44' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Ordóñez |
| 46' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 50' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Christian Ordóñez | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Roma |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 71' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 72' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 72' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 81' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 86' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nahuel Estévez |
| 90' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 91' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 93' |
Roma |
Daniele Ghilardi | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 93' |
Roma |
Devyne Rensch | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 100' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Christian Ordóñez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nesta Elphege FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 80 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Enrico Del Prato DMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Emanuele Valeri DML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 54 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Mateo Pellegrino Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Franco Ezequiel Carboni Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Sascha Britschgi Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pontus Almqvist Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 1.72 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Wesley DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| Paulo Dybala AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 1.41 | 1.22 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Neil El Aynaoui Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.48 |
| Devyne Rensch Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Venturino Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |