Parma Calcio 1913 v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 6
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 3
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.34 – 0.57
Goals − xG
-0.51 – -1.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
31.7%
Draw
28.0%
Sassuolo win
40.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWWLLLWLL last 10
scored 7
from 7.5 xG
conceded 11
from 16.4 xG
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLLLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.6 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.99–1.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–1.29 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 51% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 1.51 xGSassuolo 1.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 7' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Daniel Mikolajewski | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Lautaro Valenti | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 21' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
 Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Sassuolo |
Tommaso Macchioni | 0.50 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christian Ordóñez |
| 35' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Christian Ordóñez | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mariano Troilo |
| 36' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ulisses García |
| 38' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 47' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 51' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Christian Ordóñez | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Pellegrino |
| 51' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Oliver Sørensen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Circati |
| 76' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Pontus Almqvist | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 79' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Goal | Pontus Almqvist |
| 81' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Pontus Almqvist | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Pellegrino |
| 84' |
Sassuolo |
Woyo Coulibaly | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | M'Bala Nzola |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.14 | 0.62 |
| Christian Ordóñez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.57 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.65 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.62 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.58 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Emanuele Valeri DML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.49 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sascha Britschgi DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Daniel Mikolajewski FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Alessandro Cardinali Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Niakhate Ndiaye Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Pontus Almqvist Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| Oliver Sørensen Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Franco Ezequiel Carboni Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommaso Macchioni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| Woyo Coulibaly DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ulisses García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Luca Lipani MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Felipe Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nemanja Matic Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Gioele Zacchi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |