Pisa v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 13 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.57–1.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–2.06 | 1-2 10% | 63% | 61% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Zachary Athekame |
| 29' |
 Pisa |
Filip Stojilkovic | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 29' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rosen Bozhinov |
| 32' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Goal | Zachary Athekame |
| 55' |
AC Milan |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.76 | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — | |
| 58' |
Pisa |
Filip Stojilkovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Iling-Junior |
| 61' |
AC Milan |
Zachary Athekame | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 70' |
Pisa |
Felipe Loyola | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 80' |
AC Milan |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samuele Ricci |
| 83' |
Pisa |
Samuele Angori | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 84' |
AC Milan |
Luka Modric | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Samuele Ricci |
| 88' |
Pisa |
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felipe Loyola |
| 91' |
Pisa |
Samuele Angori | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zachary Athekame DMR | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Rafael Leão Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Samuele Ricci Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| Christian Pulisic Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Koni de Winter Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Loyola MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.03 | 0.43 |
| Filip Stojilkovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rosen Bozhinov DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Nícolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefano Moreo AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Matteo Tramoni AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Samuel Iling-Junior Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Mehdi Leris Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafiu Durosinmi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |