Pisa v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.29 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.52 – 0.18
Goals − xG
+0.05 – -0.57
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Pisa win
26.5%
Draw
27.6%
Cagliari win
46.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.20 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Pisa 2.95 xGCagliari 1.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Pisa attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Pisa |
Rafiu Durosinmi | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 8' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 10' |
 Cagliari |
Adam Obert | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Marco Palestra |
| 10' |
Cagliari |
Sulemana | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Pisa |
Michel Aebischer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Obert |
| 43' |
Cagliari |
Adam Obert | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Pisa |
Malthe Højholt | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 51' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 52' |
Pisa |
Samuele Angori | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 53' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.70 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Raúl Albiol |
| 57' |
Cagliari |
Adam Obert | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sulemana |
| 62' |
Cagliari |
Gabriele Zappa | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 66' |
Cagliari |
Leonardo Pavoletti | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alberto Dossena |
| 69' |
Cagliari |
Sulemana | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leonardo Pavoletti |
| 69' |
Cagliari |
Yael Trepy | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Cagliari |
Alberto Dossena | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adam Obert |
| 75' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro |
| 89' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 93' |
Cagliari |
Leonardo Pavoletti | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Folorunsho |
| 95' |
Cagliari |
Luca Mazzitelli | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sulemana ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.01 | 0.59 |
| Alberto Dossena DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Michael Folorunsho FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marco Palestra MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Adam Obert DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.69 |
| Zé Pedro DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Gianluca Gaetano MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Sub | 39 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.01 | 0.35 |
| Gabriele Zappa Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Yael Trepy Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Luca Mazzitelli Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Agustín Albarracín Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Stefano Moreo FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.89 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nícolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mehdi Leris DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Tramoni FWL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Malthe Højholt Sub | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Arturo Calabresi DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raúl Albiol Sub | 39 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.00 |
| Rafiu Durosinmi FW | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Marin MC | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| Idrissa Touré Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |