Pisa v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.38
Goals − xG
-1.28 – -0.76
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Pisa win
45.9%
Draw
28.0%
Udinese win
26.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.33–0.93 | 1-0 14% | 39% | 44% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Pisa 1.28 xGUdinese 1.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Pisa attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Pisa |
Henrik Meister | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 12' |
Pisa |
Mateus Lusuardi | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 13' |
Udinese |
Iker Bravo | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 15' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 31' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Pisa |
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iker Bravo |
| 37' |
Udinese |
Iker Bravo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 37' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 41' |
Pisa |
Mateus Lusuardi | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 43' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 44' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 50' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Idrissa Touré |
| 54' |
Pisa |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro |
| 57' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 61' |
Udinese |
Kingsley Ehizibue | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Buksa |
| 64' |
Udinese |
Nicolò Bertola | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 66' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro |
| 68' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | M'Bala Nzola |
| 71' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Idrissa Touré |
| 75' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Idrissa Touré |
| 94' |
Pisa |
Giovanni Bonfanti | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Razvan Sava GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Bertola DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.13 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.09 | 0.54 |
| Iker Bravo FW | 62 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.05 | 0.44 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Saba Goglichidze Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Zemura Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henrik Meister FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.46 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Tramoni AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Stefano Moreo AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mateus Lusuardi DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mehdi Leris Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Giovanni Bonfanti Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Calvin Stengs Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |