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Portsmouth v Blackburn Rovers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Portsmouth win
44.1%
model 40.6%
Draw
28.3%
model 30.6%
Blackburn Rovers win
27.6%
model 28.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.5%
  2. 0-0 10.7%
  3. 1-0 10.6%
  4. 2-1 8.5%
  5. 0-1 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.542.6% Under 2.557.4%
BTTS yes49.6% BTTS no50.4%
Portsmouth 1+73.1% Portsmouth 2+37.8%
Blackburn Rovers 1+65.7% Blackburn Rovers 2+29.0%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
42/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Not both teams to score
GG/NG · usually 46%
54.0% fair odds 1.85
moderate signal · 1233 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Portsmouth.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Portsmouth have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.3% for the draw and 27.6% for Blackburn Rovers. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.31 for Portsmouth and 1.07 for Blackburn Rovers.

Why Portsmouth

Nothing in the data singles out Portsmouth.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.3%. A combined 2.38 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.31 to 1.07. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Blackburn Rovers can win

Nothing in the data singles out Blackburn Rovers.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Portsmouth, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Blackburn Rovers, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Portsmouth: 57% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Blackburn Rovers: 48% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 19.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Portsmouth's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Portsmouth are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.5%. Confidence 42/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.31–1.07 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.10–1.06 1-1 15% 37% 45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to win 34.6% 30.4% 43.5% 0.70× 3.29
Blackburn Rovers to win 32.7% 30.4% 29.0% 1.05× 3.29
Draw 32.6% 30.4% 27.6% 1.10× 3.29
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth & not both score 21.5% 21.9% 23.4% 0.94× 4.57
Blackburn Rovers & not both score 20.2% 21.9% 15.3% 1.43× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 19.5% 17.9% 20.4% 0.88× 5.58
Portsmouth & both teams score 13.1% 13.3% 20.2% 0.66× 7.54
Draw & not both score 13.1% 13.3% 7.3% 1.82× 7.54
Blackburn Rovers & both teams score 12.5% 13.3% 13.8% 0.96× 7.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth & under 3.5 28.0% 26.0% 32.5% 0.80× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 28.2% 26.0% 21.6% 1.20× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 28.2% 26.0% 21.6% 1.20× 3.84
Blackburn Rovers & under 3.5 26.6% 26.0% 22.3% 1.17× 3.84
Portsmouth & over 1.5 23.5% 21.7% 32.5% 0.67× 4.62
Blackburn Rovers & over 1.5 22.1% 21.7% 21.4% 1.01× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 19.5% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.56
Portsmouth & under 2.5 18.1% 18.0% 17.2% 1.05× 5.56
Portsmouth & over 2.5 16.6% 18.0% 26.4% 0.68× 5.56
Blackburn Rovers & under 2.5 17.2% 18.0% 13.0% 1.39× 5.56
Blackburn Rovers & over 2.5 15.6% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 13.1% 12.9% 7.3% 1.76× 7.77
Portsmouth & under 1.5 11.1% 12.9% 11.1% 1.16× 7.77
Blackburn Rovers & under 1.5 10.7% 12.9% 7.7% 1.66× 7.77
Portsmouth & over 3.5 6.6% 7.9% 11.1% 0.71× 12.70
Blackburn Rovers & over 3.5 6.1% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 4.5% 4.8% 6.0% 0.79× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.5% 4.8% 6.0% 0.79× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (1UP) 49.3% 43.4% 2.31
Blackburn Rovers (1UP) 47.6% 43.2% 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (2UP) 34.6% 31.1% 3.22
Blackburn Rovers (2UP) 32.7% 30.9% 3.24
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 41.8% 41.0% 2.44
Blackburn Rovers to win 2nd half 29.4% 26.3% 3.80
Portsmouth to win 2nd half 28.8% 26.3% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (+2.5) 95.5% 96.3% 91.9% 1.05× 1.04
Blackburn Rovers (+1.5) 85.4% 88.5% 80.7% 1.10× 1.13
Portsmouth (+0.5) 67.3% 68.7% 71.0% 0.97× 1.46
Blackburn Rovers (+0.5) 65.4% 68.7% 56.5% 1.22× 1.46
Portsmouth (-0.5) 34.6% 31.3% 43.5% 0.72× 3.20
Blackburn Rovers (-0.5) 32.7% 31.3% 29.0% 1.08× 3.20
Portsmouth (-1.5) 14.6% 11.5% 19.3% 0.60× 8.69
Portsmouth (-2.5) 4.5% 3.7% 8.1% 0.46× 26.78
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to concede 66.6% 72.5% 77.5% 0.94× 1.38
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet 33.4% 27.5% 22.5% 1.22× 3.64
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet in 1st half 62.4% 64.9% 1.54
Blackburn Rovers to concede in 1st half 37.6% 35.1% 2.85
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers over 2.5 corners 78.5% 75.9% 1.32
Blackburn Rovers under 6.5 corners 71.5% 71.6% 1.40
Blackburn Rovers over 3.5 corners 65.1% 67.5% 1.48
Blackburn Rovers under 5.5 corners 61.0% 61.8% 1.62
Blackburn Rovers over 4.5 corners 51.5% 53.1% 1.88
Blackburn Rovers under 4.5 corners 48.5% 46.9% 2.13
Blackburn Rovers over 5.5 corners 39.0% 38.2% 2.62
Blackburn Rovers under 3.5 corners 34.9% 32.5% 3.08
Blackburn Rovers over 6.5 corners 28.5% 28.4% 3.52
Blackburn Rovers under 2.5 corners 21.5% 24.1% 4.16
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers under 3.5 goals 97.7% 97.5% 97.8% 1.00× 1.03
Blackburn Rovers under 2.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Blackburn Rovers under 1.5 goals 71.4% 71.9% 69.9% 1.03× 1.39
Blackburn Rovers over 0.5 goals 65.4% 67.9% 69.4% 0.98× 1.47
Blackburn Rovers under 0.5 goals 34.6% 32.1% 30.6% 1.05× 3.12
Blackburn Rovers over 1.5 goals 28.6% 28.1% 30.1% 0.93× 3.56
Blackburn Rovers over 2.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 9.5% 0.81× 13.02
Blackburn Rovers over 3.5 goals 2.3% 2.5% 2.2% 1.10× 40.76
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers under 1.5 in 1st half 93.2% 94.2% 1.06
Blackburn Rovers under 0.5 in 1st half 65.4% 68.1% 1.47
Blackburn Rovers over 0.5 in 1st half 34.6% 31.9% 3.14
Blackburn Rovers over 1.5 in 1st half 6.8% 5.8% 17.26
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (away no bet) 51.5% 51.2% 61.2% 0.84× 1.95
Draw (away no bet) 48.5% 48.8% 38.8% 1.26× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers even goals 56.0% 56.9% 52.6% 1.08× 1.76
Blackburn Rovers odd goals 44.0% 43.1% 47.4% 0.91× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.9% 92.5% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.1% 7.5% 13.28
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 48.7% 50.3% 1.99
Not both halves under 1.5 51.3% 49.7% 2.01
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 43.6% 38.4% 2.61
Portsmouth to score 2+ in a row 24.2% 19.6% 5.11
Blackburn Rovers to score 2+ in a row 22.8% 19.5% 5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 12.4% 12.2% 8.21
Portsmouth to score 3+ in a row 6.6% 5.6% 17.76
Blackburn Rovers to score 3+ in a row 6.0% 5.6% 17.81
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth corners (+3.5) 88.5% 84.5% 1.18
Portsmouth corners (+2.5) 84.0% 79.7% 1.25
Portsmouth corners (+1.5) 78.5% 74.9% 1.34
Blackburn Rovers corners (+3.5) 59.2% 57.1% 1.75
Portsmouth corners (-1.5) 56.6% 57.1% 1.75
Blackburn Rovers corners (+2.5) 51.4% 52.5% 1.91
Portsmouth corners (-2.5) 48.6% 47.5% 2.10
Blackburn Rovers corners (+1.5) 43.4% 42.9% 2.33
Portsmouth corners (-3.5) 40.8% 42.9% 2.33
Blackburn Rovers corners (-1.5) 21.5% 25.1% 3.98
Blackburn Rovers corners (-2.5) 16.0% 20.3% 4.94
Blackburn Rovers corners (-3.5) 11.5% 15.5% 6.46
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 55.3% 46.6% 2.15
9-11 corners 22.5% 25.6% 3.91
0-8 corners 22.2% 25.6% 3.91
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 84.2% 80.8% 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 77.8% 76.5% 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 70.7% 72.6% 1.38
Over 10.5 corners 63.1% 63.4% 1.58
Over 11.5 corners 55.3% 57.8% 1.73
Under 12.5 corners 52.3% 53.3% 1.88
Over 12.5 corners 47.7% 46.7% 2.14
Under 11.5 corners 44.7% 42.2% 2.37
Under 10.5 corners 36.9% 36.6% 2.73
Under 9.5 corners 29.3% 27.4% 3.65
Under 8.5 corners 22.2% 23.5% 4.26
Under 7.5 corners 15.9% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 15.0% 13.7% 14.4% 0.95× 7.28
0-0 13.1% 11.5% 7.3% 1.57× 8.73
0-1 10.7% 11.5% 7.7% 1.48× 8.73
1-0 11.1% 11.5% 11.1% 1.03× 8.73
1-2 7.1% 7.4% 7.9% 0.94× 13.48
2-0 7.0% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.48
2-1 7.4% 7.4% 11.4% 0.65× 13.48
0-2 6.5% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.48
0-3 2.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.48
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 3.98× 58.49
1-3 2.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.48
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.49
2-2 3.9% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.47
2-3 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.48
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 6.63× 58.49
3-0 2.5% 1.7% 4.0% 0.42× 58.48
3-1 2.7% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.47
3-2 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.48
3-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.99× 58.49
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 6.63× 58.49
4-0 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.49
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.99× 58.49
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.21× 58.49
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 9.95× 58.49
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 19.90× 58.49
Any other score 1.0% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.48
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth leading at HT (DNB) 53.3% 56.0% 1.79
Blackburn Rovers leading at HT (DNB) 46.7% 44.0% 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth or Blackburn Rovers (12) 67.4% 69.6% 72.4% 0.96× 1.44
Portsmouth or draw (1X) 67.3% 69.6% 71.0% 0.98× 1.44
Blackburn Rovers or draw (X2) 65.4% 69.6% 56.5% 1.23× 1.44
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth or draw at HT 76.6% 79.8% 1.25
Blackburn Rovers or draw at HT 73.3% 74.4% 1.35
Portsmouth or Blackburn Rovers at HT 50.1% 47.4% 2.11
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth or draw (1UP) 67.3% 75.9% 1.32
Blackburn Rovers or draw (1UP) 65.4% 75.8% 1.32
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers or draw in 2nd half 71.2% 73.7% 1.36
Portsmouth or draw in 2nd half 70.6% 73.7% 1.36
Portsmouth or Blackburn Rovers in 2nd half 58.2% 59.0% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 69.3% 69.6% 1.44
Neither half drawn 30.7% 30.4% 3.29
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (DNB) 51.4% 50.9% 60.0% 0.85× 1.97
Blackburn Rovers (DNB) 48.6% 49.1% 40.0% 1.23× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to score first 44.2% 41.9% 2.39
Blackburn Rovers to score first 42.7% 41.8% 2.39
No goal scored 13.1% 10.3% 9.70
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 54.9% 51.4% 45.8% 1.12× 1.94
Both teams to score 45.1% 48.6% 54.2% 0.90× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 48.4% 44.3% 37.3% 1.19× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 30.1% 34.3% 39.9% 0.86× 2.92
Both score & under 2.5 15.0% 21.7% 14.4% 1.50× 4.61
Not both score & over 2.5 6.5% 8.4% 8.6% 0.97× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 91.4% 89.1% 89.0% 1.00× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 8.6% 10.9% 11.0% 0.99× 9.17
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 77.6% 75.3% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 22.4% 24.7% 4.05
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 67.1% 62.2% 1.61
Both score 2nd half only 19.6% 15.7% 6.35
Both score 1st half only 10.4% 10.7% 9.34
Both score in both halves 2.8% 5.0% 20.14
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.7% 86.0% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 13.3% 14.0% 7.13
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 56.8% 57.3% 1.75
A goal in each half 43.2% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.8% 47.4% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
0-1 goals 34.9% 30.8% 25.9% 1.19× 3.25
4-6 goals 16.6% 20.2% 22.4% 0.90× 4.96
7+ goals 0.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.33× 54.74
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to score exactly 1 36.7% 36.0% 39.4% 0.91× 2.78
Blackburn Rovers to score exactly 0 34.6% 33.8% 30.6% 1.11× 2.96
Blackburn Rovers to score exactly 2 19.5% 19.6% 20.7% 0.95× 5.11
Blackburn Rovers to score 3+ 9.2% 8.5% 9.5% 0.90× 11.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.6% 36.9% 0.96× 2.81
Portsmouth to score exactly 0 33.4% 32.7% 22.5% 1.45× 3.06
Portsmouth to score exactly 2 20.1% 23.2% 24.6% 0.95× 4.30
Portsmouth to score 3+ 9.9% 10.3% 16.2% 0.64× 9.69
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 49.9% 52.6% 1.90
Portsmouth leading at HT 26.7% 25.6% 3.90
Blackburn Rovers leading at HT 23.4% 20.2% 4.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth -1: 2 65.4% 67.6% 1.48
Portsmouth -1: X 20.1% 23.6% 4.24
Portsmouth -1: 1 14.6% 14.0% 7.14
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (0:1) 65.4% 65.4% 56.5% 1.16× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 20.1% 24.3% 24.2% 1.00× 4.12
Portsmouth (0:1) 14.6% 13.9% 19.3% 0.72× 7.21
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (0:2) 85.4% 86.9% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 10.1% 11.0% 11.3% 0.97× 9.13
Portsmouth (0:2) 4.5% 3.8% 8.1% 0.47× 26.49
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (0:3) 95.5% 96.6% 91.9% 1.05× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.4% 2.4% 4.8% 0.49× 42.11
Portsmouth (0:3) 1.1% 2.4% 3.4% 0.71× 42.22
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (0:4) 98.9% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 2.4% 0.50× 83.58
Portsmouth (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.16× 83.66
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (1:0) 67.3% 69.9% 71.0% 0.99× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 19.3% 17.0% 17.3% 0.99× 5.87
Blackburn Rovers (1:0) 13.4% 12.8% 11.9% 1.08× 7.80
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (2:0) 86.6% 88.4% 88.1% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.4% 6.5% 8.7% 0.75× 15.46
Blackburn Rovers (2:0) 4.0% 2.3% 3.3% 0.69× 44.12
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.5% 49.6% 2.02
Halves equal 31.2% 28.5% 3.51
1st half highest scoring 25.3% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to concede 65.4% 66.5% 69.4% 0.96× 1.50
Portsmouth clean sheet 34.6% 33.5% 30.6% 1.09× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth clean sheet in 1st half 65.4% 68.4% 1.46
Portsmouth to concede in 1st half 34.6% 31.6% 3.17
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth over 2.5 corners 91.3% 89.3% 1.12
Portsmouth over 3.5 corners 84.0% 81.0% 1.24
Portsmouth over 4.5 corners 75.0% 76.5% 1.31
Portsmouth over 5.5 corners 65.2% 66.6% 1.50
Portsmouth over 6.5 corners 55.2% 57.5% 1.74
Portsmouth under 6.5 corners 44.8% 42.5% 2.35
Portsmouth under 5.5 corners 34.8% 33.4% 3.00
Portsmouth under 4.5 corners 25.0% 23.5% 4.26
Portsmouth under 3.5 corners 16.0% 19.0% 5.25
Portsmouth under 2.5 corners 8.7% 10.7% 9.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth under 3.5 goals 97.4% 96.4% 94.8% 1.02× 1.04
Portsmouth under 2.5 goals 90.1% 92.2% 83.8% 1.10× 1.08
Portsmouth under 1.5 goals 70.0% 67.9% 59.4% 1.14× 1.47
Portsmouth over 0.5 goals 66.6% 67.9% 77.5% 0.88× 1.47
Portsmouth under 0.5 goals 33.4% 32.1% 22.5% 1.43× 3.11
Portsmouth over 1.5 goals 30.0% 32.1% 40.6% 0.79× 3.11
Portsmouth over 2.5 goals 9.9% 7.8% 16.2% 0.48× 12.89
Portsmouth over 3.5 goals 2.6% 3.6% 5.2% 0.71× 27.50
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth under 1.5 in 1st half 91.8% 95.3% 1.05
Portsmouth under 0.5 in 1st half 62.4% 64.7% 1.55
Portsmouth over 0.5 in 1st half 37.6% 35.3% 2.83
Portsmouth over 1.5 in 1st half 8.2% 4.7% 21.44
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (home no bet) 50.1% 51.6% 51.3% 1.01× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 49.9% 48.4% 48.7% 0.99× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth even goals 55.6% 55.4% 50.5% 1.10× 1.80
Portsmouth odd goals 44.4% 44.6% 49.5% 0.90× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 41.1% 40.7% 2.46
HT 1-0 19.0% 18.8% 5.33
HT 0-1 17.0% 18.7% 5.34
HT 1-1 8.4% 7.1% 14.03
HT 2-0 4.5% 2.3% 43.28
HT 0-2 3.7% 2.3% 43.34
HT 2-1 1.9% 2.3% 43.47
Any other HT score 2.2% 2.3% 43.45
HT 1-2 1.7% 2.3% 43.48
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.3% 43.58
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 22.5% 21.8% 4.59
Portsmouth at HT / Portsmouth at FT 19.5% 16.8% 5.96
Blackburn Rovers at HT / Blackburn Rovers at FT 17.1% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / Blackburn Rovers at FT 13.8% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Portsmouth at FT 13.6% 12.7% 7.88
Portsmouth at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.73
Blackburn Rovers at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% 28.78
Portsmouth at HT / Blackburn Rovers at FT 1.8% 3.5% 28.89
Blackburn Rovers at HT / Portsmouth at FT 1.6% 3.5% 28.90
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to score last 44.2% 40.1% 2.49
Blackburn Rovers to score last 42.7% 40.0% 2.50
No goal scored 13.1% 9.7% 10.31
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 86.9% 90.4% 1.11
Portsmouth to lead by 1 at any time 49.3% 44.1% 2.27
Blackburn Rovers to lead by 1 at any time 47.6% 44.0% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 36.4% 34.8% 2.87
Portsmouth to lead by 2 at any time 18.9% 14.9% 6.69
Blackburn Rovers to lead by 2 at any time 17.6% 14.9% 6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 10.5% 10.4% 9.59
Portsmouth to lead by 3 at any time 5.5% 6.6% 15.15
Blackburn Rovers to lead by 3 at any time 5.0% 1.7% 59.46
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth most corners 64.5% 60.5% 1.65
Blackburn Rovers most corners 28.1% 31.0% 3.23
Corners level 7.4% 8.5% 11.81
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.6% 83.5% 88.8% 0.94× 1.20
1-4 goals 80.1% 83.5% 83.4% 1.00× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.6% 69.0% 69.1% 1.00× 1.45
2-6 goals 64.4% 63.4% 72.8% 0.87× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.8% 63.4% 70.2% 0.90× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.3% 59.2% 64.8% 0.91× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.3% 53.2% 44.4% 1.20× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.8% 48.7% 50.4% 0.96× 2.06
3-6 goals 35.9% 39.1% 47.1% 0.83× 2.56
3-5 goals 34.3% 35.4% 44.5% 0.79× 2.83
3-4 goals 29.8% 30.3% 39.1% 0.77× 3.31
4-6 goals 16.6% 18.6% 22.4% 0.83× 5.37
4-5 goals 14.9% 14.9% 19.8% 0.75× 6.72
5-6 goals 6.1% 8.7% 8.1% 1.08× 11.46
7+ goals 0.7% 2.5% 1.4% 1.85× 39.30
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth never behind 39.3% 44.8% 2.23
Blackburn Rovers never behind 37.5% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.2% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 53.8% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.9% 57.6% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 41.1% 42.4% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.1% 57.9% 1.73
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.9% 42.1% 2.37
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.7% 95.5% 96.0% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 93.2% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 86.9% 87.6% 92.7% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 82.8% 82.4% 76.3% 1.08× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 65.1% 66.2% 74.1% 0.89× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 63.4% 61.8% 51.6% 1.20× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 36.6% 38.2% 48.4% 0.79× 2.62
Under 1.5 goals 34.9% 33.8% 25.9% 1.30× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 17.2% 17.6% 23.7% 0.74× 5.68
Under 0.5 goals 13.1% 12.4% 7.3% 1.69× 8.09
Over 4.5 goals 6.8% 7.7% 9.4% 0.83× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 2.3% 4.5% 4.0% 1.14× 22.23
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.3% 97.2% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.6% 97.2% 95.8% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 92.4% 92.5% 89.1% 1.04× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 78.6% 75.9% 68.5% 1.11× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 51.2% 51.8% 65.1% 0.80× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 48.8% 48.2% 34.9% 1.38× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 21.4% 24.1% 31.5% 0.76× 4.16
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 7.6% 7.5% 10.9% 0.69× 13.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.4% 2.8% 4.2% 0.66× 36.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.7% 2.8% 1.4% 1.96× 36.20
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.8% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 77.1% 78.8% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 58.9% 62.8% 1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 41.1% 37.2% 2.69
Over 1.5 in 1st half 22.9% 21.2% 4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.2% 7.2% 13.88
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 86.6% 85.3% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 71.1% 77.6% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 63.5% 61.8% 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 36.5% 38.2% 2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 28.9% 22.4% 4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 13.4% 14.7% 6.81
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers not to score in both halves 83.7% 84.4% 1.19
Portsmouth not to score in both halves 82.5% 84.3% 1.19
Portsmouth to score in both halves 17.5% 15.7% 6.37
Blackburn Rovers to score in both halves 16.3% 15.6% 6.39
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 45.1% 50.4% 54.2% 0.93× 1.98
Only Portsmouth scores 21.5% 22.3% 23.4% 0.96× 4.48
Only Blackburn Rovers scores 20.2% 22.3% 15.3% 1.46× 4.48
Neither team scores 13.1% 10.9% 7.3% 1.50× 9.14
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.5% 25.0% 25.8% 0.97× 4.00
Exactly 1 goals 21.8% 22.6% 18.7% 1.21× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 19.4% 17.4% 24.7% 0.70× 5.74
Exactly 0 goals 13.1% 12.1% 7.3% 1.66× 8.27
Exactly 4 goals 10.4% 12.1% 14.4% 0.84× 8.28
Exactly 5 goals 4.5% 4.4% 5.5% 0.80× 22.65
6 or more goals 2.3% 4.4% 4.0% 1.12× 22.68
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 36.5% 39.6% 2.53
1 goal in 2nd half 34.6% 33.5% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 28.9% 29.9% 3.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers not to win both halves 92.9% 94.0% 1.06
Portsmouth not to win both halves 92.1% 93.9% 1.07
Portsmouth to win both halves 7.9% 6.1% 16.49
Blackburn Rovers to win both halves 7.1% 6.0% 16.55
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to win neither half 54.3% 55.0% 1.82
Portsmouth to win neither half 52.4% 55.0% 1.82
Portsmouth to win either half 47.6% 45.0% 2.22
Blackburn Rovers to win either half 45.7% 45.0% 2.22
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers not to win to nil 79.8% 78.1% 84.7% 0.92× 1.28
Portsmouth not to win to nil 78.5% 78.1% 76.6% 1.02× 1.28
Portsmouth to win to nil 21.5% 21.9% 23.4% 0.94× 4.56
Blackburn Rovers to win to nil 20.2% 21.9% 15.3% 1.43× 4.56
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 32.6% 27.6% 27.6% 1.00× 3.62
Portsmouth by 1 20.1% 24.1% 24.2% 1.00× 4.14
Blackburn Rovers by 1 19.3% 16.9% 17.3% 0.98× 5.91
Portsmouth by 2 10.1% 11.8% 11.3% 1.04× 8.48
Blackburn Rovers by 2 9.4% 7.3% 8.7% 0.84× 13.77
Portsmouth by 3+ 4.5% 2.7% 8.1% 0.34× 36.94
Blackburn Rovers by 3+ 4.0% 2.7% 3.3% 0.83× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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