PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 10 September 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

PSV Eindhoven

12:45

Shakhtar Donetsk

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 81h before kick-off

PSV Eindhoven win

83.3%

model 82.6%

Draw

10.1%

model 10.6%

Shakhtar Donetsk win

6.6%

model 6.8%

83107

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (19 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

3-0 9.4%
2-0 8.8%
3-1 8.1%
2-1 7.6%
4-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	77.1%	Under 2.5	22.9%
BTTS yes	55.3%	BTTS no	44.7%
PSV Eindhoven 1+	95.9%	PSV Eindhoven 2+	82.8%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+	57.9%	Shakhtar Donetsk 2+	21.4%

Expected goals 3.20 – 0.86. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

61/100

Data quality

45/100

Model agreement

90%

★ Best pick

PSV Eindhoven (-1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 32%

63.6% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 877 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Over 0.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger rating, 1811 Elo against 1467.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Shakhtar Donetsk have only 8 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

PSV Eindhoven have an estimated 83.3% win probability, against 10.1% for the draw and 6.6% for Shakhtar Donetsk. Expected goals from the ensemble are 3.20 for PSV Eindhoven and 0.86 for Shakhtar Donetsk.

Why PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger rating, 1811 Elo against 1467. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.1%. Draws run at 16% in this competition.

Why Shakhtar Donetsk can win

They have had 30 days' rest to PSV Eindhoven's 11.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for PSV Eindhoven, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Shakhtar Donetsk, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

PSV Eindhoven: 63% possession, 21.6 shots a match, 7.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Shakhtar Donetsk: 43% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. PSV Eindhoven's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

PSV Eindhoven are the model's most likely outcome at 83.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 3-0 at 9.4%. Confidence 61/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	83117	3.20–0.86	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	731413	2.86–1.15	2-1 9%	76%	64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven to win	72.8%	73.8%	50.5%	1.46×	1.36
Draw	14.4%	13.3%	16.1%	0.83×	7.49
Shakhtar Donetsk to win	12.8%	13.3%	33.7%	0.40×	7.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven & both teams score	42.8%	40.1%	25.8%	1.56×	2.49
PSV Eindhoven & not both score	30.0%	25.2%	25.0%	1.01×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	12.9%	13.3%	11.1%	1.20×	7.54
Shakhtar Donetsk & both teams score	8.6%	8.4%	18.4%	0.46×	11.93
Shakhtar Donetsk & not both score	4.2%	4.9%	15.5%	0.31×	20.56
Draw & not both score	1.6%	4.8%	5.3%	0.92×	20.64

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven & over 1.5	67.4%	67.2%	42.4%	1.59×	1.49
PSV Eindhoven & over 2.5	60.0%	55.0%	36.1%	1.53×	1.82
PSV Eindhoven & over 3.5	44.4%	40.3%	23.9%	1.68×	2.48
PSV Eindhoven & under 3.5	28.4%	26.0%	26.8%	0.97×	3.84
PSV Eindhoven & under 2.5	12.8%	12.9%	14.7%	0.87×	7.77
Draw & over 1.5	12.9%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.77
Shakhtar Donetsk & over 1.5	10.5%	12.9%	28.2%	0.46×	7.77
Shakhtar Donetsk & over 2.5	9.3%	7.9%	23.9%	0.33×	12.69
Draw & under 2.5	7.3%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.70
Draw & under 3.5	7.3%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.70
Shakhtar Donetsk & under 3.5	7.4%	7.9%	19.2%	0.41×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	5.5%	1.43×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	5.5%	1.43×	12.70
PSV Eindhoven & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.70
Shakhtar Donetsk & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	14.7%	0.53×	12.70
Shakhtar Donetsk & under 2.5	3.5%	4.8%	10.0%	0.48×	20.94
Shakhtar Donetsk & under 1.5	2.3%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.95
Draw & under 1.5	1.6%	4.8%	5.3%	0.91×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven (1UP)	83.9%	87.4%	—	—	1.14
Shakhtar Donetsk (1UP)	33.9%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven (2UP)	72.8%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Shakhtar Donetsk (2UP)	12.8%	13.4%	—	—	7.47

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven to win 2nd half	60.0%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
2nd half drawn	24.3%	23.2%	—	—	4.31
Shakhtar Donetsk to win 2nd half	15.7%	18.8%	—	—	5.31

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven (+0.5)	87.2%	88.5%	66.3%	1.33×	1.13
PSV Eindhoven (-0.5)	72.8%	73.7%	50.5%	1.46×	1.36
Shakhtar Donetsk (+2.5)	67.1%	68.7%	81.6%	0.84×	1.46
PSV Eindhoven (-1.5)	52.6%	52.3%	31.6%	1.66×	1.91
Shakhtar Donetsk (+1.5)	47.4%	47.7%	68.4%	0.70×	2.10
PSV Eindhoven (-2.5)	32.9%	31.3%	18.4%	1.70×	3.20
Shakhtar Donetsk (+0.5)	27.2%	26.3%	49.5%	0.53×	3.80
Shakhtar Donetsk (-0.5)	12.8%	11.5%	33.7%	0.34×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk to concede	94.3%	91.9%	79.5%	1.16×	1.09
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet	5.7%	8.1%	20.5%	0.40×	12.33

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk to concede in 1st half	70.8%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet in 1st half	29.2%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk under 3.5 goals	97.0%	97.5%	92.1%	1.06×	1.03
Shakhtar Donetsk under 2.5 goals	89.0%	87.9%	78.9%	1.11×	1.14
Shakhtar Donetsk over 0.5 goals	68.4%	68.0%	70.0%	0.97×	1.47
Shakhtar Donetsk under 1.5 goals	68.0%	68.0%	59.7%	1.14×	1.47
Shakhtar Donetsk over 1.5 goals	32.0%	32.0%	40.3%	0.80×	3.12
Shakhtar Donetsk under 0.5 goals	31.6%	32.0%	30.0%	1.07×	3.12
Shakhtar Donetsk over 2.5 goals	11.0%	12.1%	21.1%	0.58×	8.26
Shakhtar Donetsk over 3.5 goals	3.0%	2.5%	7.9%	0.31×	40.72

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Shakhtar Donetsk under 0.5 in 1st half	63.1%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Shakhtar Donetsk over 0.5 in 1st half	36.9%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
Shakhtar Donetsk over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	5.8%	—	—	17.14

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven (away no bet)	83.4%	82.8%	75.9%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	16.6%	17.2%	24.1%	0.71×	5.82

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk even goals	55.0%	52.8%	54.5%	0.97×	1.89
Shakhtar Donetsk odd goals	45.0%	47.2%	45.5%	1.04×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	66.0%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Both halves over 1.5 goals	34.0%	28.8%	—	—	3.47

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	83.7%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Both halves under 1.5 goals	16.3%	22.0%	—	—	4.54

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	78.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
PSV Eindhoven to score 2+ in a row	69.9%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row	44.2%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
PSV Eindhoven to score 3+ in a row	40.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Shakhtar Donetsk to score 2+ in a row	19.4%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
Shakhtar Donetsk to score 3+ in a row	4.1%	2.6%	—	—	38.07

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	16.6%	13.8%	11.3%	1.22×	7.27
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	7.4%	1.01×	13.48
2-0	7.4%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
3-0	7.1%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.48
3-1	8.1%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.48
1-0	5.4%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.48
1-1	5.7%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.48
4-0	5.1%	7.4%	3.4%	2.17×	13.48
4-1	5.8%	7.4%	3.2%	2.35×	13.48
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	3.9%	0.43×	58.46
3-2	4.7%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.46
0-0	1.6%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.48
0-1	2.3%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.48
0-2	1.2%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.48
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	3.9%	0.43×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.49
1-2	3.4%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.47
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.48
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.49
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.48
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.49
3-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.25×	58.49
4-2	3.4%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.47
4-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.48
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.25×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven leading at HT (DNB)	80.0%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Shakhtar Donetsk leading at HT (DNB)	20.0%	21.4%	—	—	4.67

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven or draw (1X)	87.2%	86.7%	66.3%	1.31×	1.15
PSV Eindhoven or Shakhtar Donetsk (12)	85.6%	86.7%	83.9%	1.03×	1.15
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw (X2)	27.2%	26.2%	49.5%	0.53×	3.81

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven or draw at HT	86.1%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
PSV Eindhoven or Shakhtar Donetsk at HT	69.6%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw at HT	44.3%	43.2%	—	—	2.31

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven or draw (1UP)	87.2%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw (1UP)	33.9%	39.1%	—	—	2.56

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven or draw in 2nd half	84.3%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
PSV Eindhoven or Shakhtar Donetsk in 2nd half	75.7%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw in 2nd half	40.0%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	47.6%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Neither half drawn	52.4%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven (DNB)	85.1%	87.0%	60.0%	1.45×	1.15
Shakhtar Donetsk (DNB)	14.9%	13.0%	40.0%	0.32×	7.71

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven to score first	70.2%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Shakhtar Donetsk to score first	28.3%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
No goal scored	1.6%	4.2%	—	—	23.69

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.3%	56.5%	54.7%	1.03×	1.77
Not both teams to score	35.7%	43.5%	45.3%	0.96×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	58.6%	47.2%	49.2%	0.96×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	17.9%	21.7%	29.5%	0.74×	4.60
Not both score & over 2.5	17.8%	21.7%	16.1%	1.35×	4.60
Both score & under 2.5	5.7%	8.4%	5.8%	1.44×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	75.0%	79.9%	81.1%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	25.0%	20.1%	18.9%	1.06×	4.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	59.9%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Both teams to score in 2nd half	40.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.02

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	44.3%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Both score 2nd half only	29.6%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Both score 1st half only	15.6%	15.6%	—	—	6.43
Both score in both halves	10.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.34

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	73.9%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	26.1%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	73.5%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
A half without a goal	26.5%	26.8%	—	—	3.73

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	45.8%	47.4%	37.1%	1.28×	2.11
2-3 goals	33.8%	30.8%	37.6%	0.82×	3.25
7+ goals	11.1%	16.9%	6.8%	2.47×	5.92
0-1 goals	9.3%	7.6%	18.9%	0.40×	13.12

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	30.0%	1.20×	2.78
Shakhtar Donetsk to score exactly 0	31.6%	33.8%	30.0%	1.13×	2.96
Shakhtar Donetsk to score exactly 2	21.0%	22.4%	19.5%	1.15×	4.47
Shakhtar Donetsk to score 3+	11.0%	12.8%	21.1%	0.61×	7.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven to score 3+	54.5%	43.8%	31.1%	1.41×	2.28
PSV Eindhoven to score exactly 2	23.4%	23.2%	23.4%	0.99×	4.30
PSV Eindhoven to score exactly 1	16.4%	18.9%	25.5%	0.74×	5.29
PSV Eindhoven to score exactly 0	5.7%	10.3%	20.5%	0.50×	9.74

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven leading at HT	55.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Draw at HT	30.4%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
Shakhtar Donetsk leading at HT	13.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.36

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven -1: 1	52.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
PSV Eindhoven -1: 2	27.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
PSV Eindhoven -1: X	20.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven (0:1)	52.6%	51.1%	31.6%	1.62×	1.96
Shakhtar Donetsk (0:1)	27.2%	27.0%	49.5%	0.55×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	20.2%	24.3%	19.2%	1.26×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk (0:2)	47.4%	51.4%	68.4%	0.75×	1.95
PSV Eindhoven (0:2)	32.9%	28.7%	18.4%	1.56×	3.49
Draw (0:2)	19.8%	15.3%	13.4%	1.14×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk (0:3)	67.1%	71.9%	81.6%	0.88×	1.39
PSV Eindhoven (0:3)	17.7%	16.1%	9.5%	1.70×	6.21
Draw (0:3)	15.2%	16.0%	9.2%	1.74×	6.26

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk (0:4)	82.3%	87.0%	90.5%	0.96×	1.15
Draw (0:4)	9.5%	4.7%	5.8%	0.81×	21.30
PSV Eindhoven (0:4)	8.2%	4.7%	3.9%	1.18×	21.41

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven (1:0)	87.2%	86.4%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.3%	6.9%	16.6%	0.42×	14.43
Shakhtar Donetsk (1:0)	4.5%	3.2%	17.4%	0.18×	31.37

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven (2:0)	95.5%	96.9%	82.6%	1.17×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.2%	2.3%	7.9%	0.29×	44.17
Shakhtar Donetsk (2:0)	1.3%	2.3%	9.7%	0.23×	44.29

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.3%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	28.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	19.5%	19.4%	—	—	5.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven to concede	68.4%	66.6%	70.0%	0.95×	1.50
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet	31.6%	33.4%	30.0%	1.11×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet in 1st half	63.1%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
PSV Eindhoven to concede in 1st half	36.9%	35.8%	—	—	2.80

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 goals	94.3%	92.3%	79.5%	1.16×	1.08
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 goals	77.9%	77.8%	54.2%	1.43×	1.29
PSV Eindhoven under 3.5 goals	67.9%	67.9%	83.9%	0.81×	1.47
PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals	54.5%	53.3%	31.1%	1.72×	1.88
PSV Eindhoven under 2.5 goals	45.5%	46.7%	68.9%	0.68×	2.14
PSV Eindhoven over 3.5 goals	32.1%	32.1%	16.1%	2.00×	3.11
PSV Eindhoven under 1.5 goals	22.1%	22.3%	45.8%	0.49×	4.49
PSV Eindhoven under 0.5 goals	5.7%	7.7%	20.5%	0.38×	12.93

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
PSV Eindhoven under 1.5 in 1st half	65.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 in 1st half	34.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
PSV Eindhoven under 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	20.4%	—	—	4.91

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.1%	51.6%	32.3%	1.60×	1.94
Shakhtar Donetsk (home no bet)	46.9%	48.4%	67.7%	0.71×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven even goals	50.2%	50.6%	53.2%	0.95×	1.98
PSV Eindhoven odd goals	49.8%	49.4%	46.8%	1.05×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	22.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 0-0	18.4%	18.7%	—	—	5.33
HT 2-0	14.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
Any other HT score	13.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	10.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 0-1	8.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 2-1	6.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 0-2	2.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.50

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven at HT / PSV Eindhoven at FT	50.4%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Draw at HT / PSV Eindhoven at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	7.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Shakhtar Donetsk at HT / Shakhtar Donetsk at FT	6.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.69
Draw at HT / Shakhtar Donetsk at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Shakhtar Donetsk at HT / PSV Eindhoven at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
PSV Eindhoven at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Shakhtar Donetsk at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
PSV Eindhoven at HT / Shakhtar Donetsk at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven to score last	70.1%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Shakhtar Donetsk to score last	28.3%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
No goal scored	1.6%	4.2%	—	—	23.69

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	98.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
PSV Eindhoven to lead by 1 at any time	83.9%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	69.8%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
PSV Eindhoven to lead by 2 at any time	60.7%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	40.1%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
PSV Eindhoven to lead by 3 at any time	37.6%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Shakhtar Donetsk to lead by 1 at any time	33.9%	29.5%	—	—	3.40
Shakhtar Donetsk to lead by 2 at any time	9.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.94
Shakhtar Donetsk to lead by 3 at any time	2.5%	1.6%	—	—	61.86

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	79.6%	78.6%	74.5%	1.06×	1.27
1-5 goals	76.8%	78.6%	81.3%	0.97×	1.27
2-5 goals	69.1%	69.0%	67.6%	1.02×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.3%	68.9%	58.4%	1.18×	1.45
1-4 goals	61.1%	63.4%	67.6%	0.94×	1.58
3-5 goals	54.8%	53.2%	51.6%	1.03×	1.88
2-4 goals	53.4%	53.2%	53.9%	0.99×	1.88
4-6 goals	45.8%	48.7%	37.1%	1.31×	2.06
1-3 goals	41.5%	43.6%	51.3%	0.85×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.1%	39.2%	37.9%	1.03×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.3%	39.1%	30.3%	1.29×	2.56
2-3 goals	33.8%	35.4%	37.6%	0.94×	2.83
5-6 goals	26.2%	30.2%	20.8%	1.45×	3.31
1-2 goals	22.1%	24.5%	30.0%	0.82×	4.09
7+ goals	11.1%	14.9%	6.8%	2.17×	6.73

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven never behind	64.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Shakhtar Donetsk never behind	14.6%	13.3%	—	—	7.53

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.8%	45.8%	1.11×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.2%	54.2%	0.91×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.6%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.4%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	98.4%	95.5%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	90.7%	92.3%	81.1%	1.14×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	78.4%	77.4%	86.3%	0.90×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	76.4%	77.3%	65.0%	1.19×	1.29
Under 4.5 goals	62.7%	61.8%	72.6%	0.85×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	56.9%	58.8%	43.7%	1.35×	1.70
Under 3.5 goals	43.1%	41.2%	56.3%	0.73×	2.43
Over 4.5 goals	37.3%	38.2%	27.4%	1.40×	2.62
Under 2.5 goals	23.6%	22.7%	35.0%	0.65×	4.41
Over 5.5 goals	21.6%	22.6%	13.7%	1.66×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	9.3%	7.7%	18.9%	0.41×	12.91
Under 0.5 goals	1.6%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.24

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	89.2%	86.8%	77.4%	1.12×	1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	87.6%	86.7%	92.7%	0.94×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	74.4%	72.6%	84.1%	0.86×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.7%	72.6%	55.5%	1.31×	1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	53.6%	51.8%	67.3%	0.77×	1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	46.4%	48.2%	32.7%	1.47×	2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.3%	27.4%	44.5%	0.62×	3.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	25.6%	27.4%	15.9%	1.73×	3.65
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	12.4%	13.3%	7.3%	1.80×	7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	10.8%	13.2%	22.6%	0.59×	7.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	81.6%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	75.9%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Over 1.5 in 1st half	50.4%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Under 1.5 in 1st half	49.6%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Over 2.5 in 1st half	24.1%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Under 0.5 in 1st half	18.4%	13.8%	—	—	7.24

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.3%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	67.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	59.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	40.9%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	32.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.7%	11.4%	—	—	8.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk not to score in both halves	81.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
PSV Eindhoven to score in both halves	56.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
PSV Eindhoven not to score in both halves	43.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Shakhtar Donetsk to score in both halves	18.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.35

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	64.3%	60.3%	54.7%	1.10×	1.66
Only PSV Eindhoven scores	30.0%	26.1%	25.0%	1.05×	3.83
Only Shakhtar Donetsk scores	4.2%	4.6%	15.5%	0.30×	21.81
Neither team scores	1.6%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	21.6%	22.6%	13.7%	1.65×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	19.5%	17.4%	21.6%	0.81×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	19.6%	17.4%	16.6%	1.05×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	15.7%	17.4%	13.9%	1.25×	5.74
Exactly 2 goals	14.3%	12.1%	16.3%	0.74×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	7.7%	7.6%	13.9%	0.55×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	1.6%	4.4%	5.3%	0.84×	22.69

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	67.3%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
1 goal in 2nd half	22.9%	23.1%	—	—	4.33
No goals in 2nd half	9.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.23

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk not to win both halves	97.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
PSV Eindhoven not to win both halves	66.6%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
PSV Eindhoven to win both halves	33.4%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Shakhtar Donetsk to win both halves	2.2%	2.8%	—	—	36.35

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven to win either half	82.4%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Shakhtar Donetsk to win neither half	72.5%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Shakhtar Donetsk to win either half	27.5%	27.1%	—	—	3.70
PSV Eindhoven to win neither half	17.6%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shakhtar Donetsk not to win to nil	95.9%	96.1%	84.5%	1.14×	1.04
PSV Eindhoven not to win to nil	70.0%	75.3%	75.0%	1.00×	1.33
PSV Eindhoven to win to nil	30.0%	24.7%	25.0%	0.99×	4.04
Shakhtar Donetsk to win to nil	4.2%	3.9%	15.5%	0.25×	25.78

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PSV Eindhoven by 3+	32.9%	27.6%	18.4%	1.50×	3.62
PSV Eindhoven by 1	20.2%	24.1%	19.2%	1.26×	4.14
PSV Eindhoven by 2	19.8%	16.9%	13.4%	1.26×	5.91
Draw	14.4%	11.8%	16.1%	0.74×	8.47
Shakhtar Donetsk by 1	8.3%	7.3%	16.6%	0.44×	13.78
Shakhtar Donetsk by 2	3.2%	2.7%	7.9%	0.34×	36.98
Shakhtar Donetsk by 3+	1.3%	2.7%	9.7%	0.28×	37.04