Puebla v Atlante FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 September 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627
MEX-Liga MX
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.0%
- 0-1 9.7%
- 0-0 9.7%
- 1-0 9.1%
- 1-2 8.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 44.5% | Under 2.5 | 55.5% |
| BTTS yes | 51.1% | BTTS no | 48.9% |
| Puebla 1+ | 69.7% | Puebla 2+ | 33.5% |
| Atlante FC 1+ | 71.7% | Atlante FC 2+ | 36.0% |
Expected goals 1.19 – 1.26. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Atlante FC carry the stronger rating, 1497 Elo against 1382.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Atlante FC have only 6 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Atlante FC have an estimated 36.9% win probability, against 33.6% for Puebla and 29.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Puebla and 1.26 for Atlante FC.
Why Puebla
Nothing in the data singles out Puebla.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 29.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.19 to 1.26. Draws run at 24% in this competition.
Why Atlante FC can win
Atlante FC carry the stronger rating, 1497 Elo against 1382.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Puebla, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Atlante FC, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Puebla: 39% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlante FC: 40% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Atlante FC are the model's most likely outcome at 36.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.0%. Confidence 30/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.19–1.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.08–1.18 | 1-1 14% | 40% | 47% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.