Puebla v León — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627

MEX-Liga MX results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Puebla

21:00

León

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 819h before kick-off

Puebla win

36.7%

model 35.6%

Draw

26.7%

model 28.6%

León win

36.7%

model 35.8%

372737

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.6%
0-1 8.6%
1-0 8.6%
0-0 8.5%
1-2 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.1%	Under 2.5	51.9%
BTTS yes	54.0%	BTTS no	46.0%
Puebla 1+	72.7%	Puebla 2+	37.2%
León 1+	72.8%	León 2+	37.4%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

36/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

León carry the stronger rating, 1464 Elo against 1382.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

León have an estimated 36.7% win probability, against 36.7% for Puebla and 26.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.30 for Puebla and 1.30 for León.

Why Puebla

Nothing in the data singles out Puebla.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.30 to 1.30. Draws run at 24% in this competition.

Why León can win

León carry the stronger rating, 1464 Elo against 1382. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Puebla, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for León, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Puebla: 39% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. León: 48% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

León are the model's most likely outcome at 36.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	372934	1.26–1.21	1-1 14%	45%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla to win	36.7%	36.4%	47.1%	0.77×	2.75
León to win	33.9%	30.4%	29.3%	1.04×	3.29
Draw	29.4%	27.9%	23.8%	1.17×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla & not both score	20.4%	21.9%	22.7%	0.96×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.8%	17.9%	17.4%	1.03×	5.58
León & not both score	18.7%	17.9%	11.7%	1.53×	5.58
Puebla & both teams score	16.3%	17.9%	24.5%	0.73×	5.58
León & both teams score	15.2%	17.9%	17.8%	1.01×	5.58
Draw & not both score	9.6%	8.4%	6.6%	1.28×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla & over 1.5	27.1%	26.0%	37.3%	0.70×	3.84
Puebla & under 3.5	27.3%	26.0%	30.9%	0.84×	3.84
León & under 3.5	25.5%	26.0%	19.7%	1.32×	3.84
León & over 1.5	24.8%	21.7%	23.4%	0.92×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	23.6%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	23.6%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.62
Puebla & over 2.5	20.3%	21.7%	30.4%	0.71×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.8%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
León & over 2.5	18.7%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Puebla & under 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	16.9%	1.07×	5.56
León & under 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	9.6%	1.88×	5.56
Puebla & under 1.5	9.6%	7.9%	9.9%	0.79×	12.69
Puebla & over 3.5	9.4%	7.9%	16.3%	0.48×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	9.6%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.69
León & under 1.5	9.1%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.69
León & over 3.5	8.4%	7.9%	9.8%	0.81×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (1UP)	52.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
León (1UP)	50.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (2UP)	36.7%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
León (2UP)	33.9%	31.0%	—	—	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.4%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
León to win 2nd half	30.9%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Puebla to win 2nd half	30.7%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León (+2.5)	94.3%	92.1%	90.9%	1.01×	1.09
León (+1.5)	83.4%	82.4%	77.1%	1.07×	1.21
Puebla (+0.5)	66.1%	68.7%	70.7%	0.97×	1.46
León (+0.5)	63.3%	62.9%	52.9%	1.19×	1.59
Puebla (-0.5)	36.7%	37.1%	47.1%	0.79×	2.70
León (-0.5)	33.9%	31.3%	29.3%	1.07×	3.20
Puebla (-1.5)	16.6%	17.6%	22.9%	0.77×	5.69
Puebla (-2.5)	5.7%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León to concede	71.7%	76.4%	81.9%	0.93×	1.31
León clean sheet	28.3%	23.6%	18.1%	1.30×	4.24

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León clean sheet in 1st half	58.1%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
León to concede in 1st half	41.9%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León over 2.5 corners	81.8%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
León under 6.5 corners	71.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
León over 3.5 corners	68.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
León under 5.5 corners	60.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
León over 4.5 corners	53.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
León under 4.5 corners	46.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
León over 5.5 corners	39.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
León under 3.5 corners	31.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
León over 6.5 corners	28.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
León under 2.5 corners	18.2%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León under 3.5 goals	96.6%	97.5%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
León under 2.5 goals	87.8%	87.9%	86.7%	1.01×	1.14
León over 0.5 goals	70.1%	71.9%	70.9%	1.01×	1.39
León under 1.5 goals	66.0%	67.9%	64.8%	1.05×	1.47
León over 1.5 goals	34.0%	32.1%	35.2%	0.91×	3.12
León under 0.5 goals	29.9%	28.1%	29.1%	0.96×	3.56
León over 2.5 goals	12.2%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.26
León over 3.5 goals	3.4%	2.5%	4.1%	0.60×	40.70

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León under 1.5 in 1st half	91.5%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
León under 0.5 in 1st half	61.7%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
León over 0.5 in 1st half	38.3%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
León over 1.5 in 1st half	8.5%	5.9%	—	—	17.07

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (away no bet)	55.5%	57.4%	66.4%	0.86×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.5%	42.6%	33.6%	1.27×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León even goals	54.5%	52.8%	54.4%	0.97×	1.89
León odd goals	45.5%	47.2%	45.6%	1.03×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.4%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.6%	12.3%	—	—	8.16

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.7%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	41.3%	39.6%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.3%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Puebla to score 2+ in a row	28.7%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
León to score 2+ in a row	26.6%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Puebla to score 3+ in a row	8.6%	5.7%	—	—	17.59
León to score 3+ in a row	7.6%	5.7%	—	—	17.68

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla corners (+3.5)	82.4%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
León corners (+3.5)	79.6%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Puebla corners (+2.5)	75.3%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
León corners (+2.5)	71.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Puebla corners (+1.5)	66.8%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
León corners (+1.5)	63.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Puebla corners (-1.5)	37.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
León corners (-1.5)	33.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Puebla corners (-2.5)	28.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
León corners (-2.5)	24.7%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Puebla corners (-3.5)	20.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
León corners (-3.5)	17.6%	20.3%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	37.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
0-8 corners	34.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	71.1%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	65.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	62.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	55.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	53.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	46.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	44.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	37.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	34.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	28.9%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	24.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.0%	11.5%	11.5%	0.99×	8.73
0-0	9.6%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
0-1	9.1%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.48
1-0	9.6%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.48
1-2	7.8%	7.4%	8.9%	0.84×	13.48
2-0	6.8%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
2-1	8.1%	7.4%	10.7%	0.70×	13.48
0-2	6.2%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.48
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.46
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.48
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
1-3	3.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.47
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.48
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.48
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.49
3-0	2.8%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.47
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.47
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.48
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.49
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.48
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.48
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.49
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.41×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.81×	58.49
Any other score	1.7%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla leading at HT (DNB)	53.8%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
León leading at HT (DNB)	46.2%	44.0%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla or León (12)	70.6%	72.1%	76.2%	0.95×	1.39
Puebla or draw (1X)	66.1%	69.6%	70.7%	0.99×	1.44
León or draw (X2)	63.3%	63.6%	52.9%	1.20×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla or draw at HT	75.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
León or draw at HT	71.1%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Puebla or León at HT	53.7%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla or draw (1UP)	66.1%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
León or draw (1UP)	63.3%	71.7%	—	—	1.39

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León or draw in 2nd half	69.3%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Puebla or draw in 2nd half	69.1%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Puebla or León in 2nd half	61.6%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.7%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Neither half drawn	34.3%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (DNB)	52.0%	50.9%	61.6%	0.83×	1.96
León (DNB)	48.0%	49.1%	38.4%	1.28×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla to score first	46.3%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
León to score first	44.1%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	9.6%	7.6%	—	—	13.17

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.4%	51.4%	59.3%	0.87×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.6%	48.6%	40.7%	1.19×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.1%	41.6%	32.7%	1.27×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	37.4%	38.5%	48.0%	0.80×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	14.0%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	7.5%	8.4%	8.2%	1.02×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.8%	85.6%	82.6%	1.04×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.2%	14.4%	17.4%	0.83×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.2%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.2%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	22.6%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	12.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.2%	5.0%	—	—	19.84

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.8%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.2%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.4%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A goal in each half	49.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.2%	47.4%	46.2%	1.03×	2.11
0-1 goals	28.2%	26.5%	22.2%	1.19×	3.78
4-6 goals	22.3%	22.8%	29.1%	0.78×	4.39
7+ goals	1.3%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	54.67

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León to score exactly 1	36.1%	36.0%	35.9%	1.00×	2.78
León to score exactly 0	29.9%	27.4%	29.1%	0.94×	3.65
León to score exactly 2	21.8%	22.4%	22.0%	1.02×	4.46
León to score 3+	12.2%	12.8%	13.3%	0.96×	7.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla to score exactly 1	35.7%	35.6%	33.4%	1.07×	2.81
Puebla to score exactly 0	28.3%	26.5%	18.1%	1.46×	3.77
Puebla to score exactly 2	22.6%	23.2%	26.6%	0.87×	4.30
Puebla to score 3+	13.5%	14.3%	22.2%	0.65×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.3%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Puebla leading at HT	28.9%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
León leading at HT	24.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla -1: 2	63.3%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Puebla -1: X	20.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Puebla -1: 1	16.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León (0:1)	63.3%	61.5%	52.9%	1.16×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.1%	24.3%	24.3%	1.00×	4.12
Puebla (0:1)	16.6%	17.8%	22.9%	0.78×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León (0:2)	83.4%	82.8%	77.1%	1.07×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.9%	11.0%	14.0%	0.78×	9.13
Puebla (0:2)	5.7%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León (0:3)	94.3%	92.6%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.1%	2.4%	6.0%	0.39×	42.08
Puebla (0:3)	1.6%	2.4%	3.2%	0.74×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León (0:4)	98.4%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	1.8%	0.67×	83.54
Puebla (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	83.64

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (1:0)	66.1%	69.9%	70.7%	0.99×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	19.1%	17.0%	19.0%	0.90×	5.87
León (1:0)	14.8%	12.8%	10.5%	1.22×	7.80

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla (2:0)	85.2%	88.4%	89.5%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.9%	6.5%	7.3%	0.89×	15.46
León (2:0)	4.9%	2.3%	3.4%	0.67×	44.06

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.8%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	28.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla to concede	70.1%	73.0%	70.9%	1.03×	1.37
Puebla clean sheet	29.9%	27.0%	29.1%	0.93×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla clean sheet in 1st half	61.7%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Puebla to concede in 1st half	38.3%	35.9%	—	—	2.79

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla over 2.5 corners	83.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Puebla over 3.5 corners	70.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Puebla under 6.5 corners	69.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Puebla under 5.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Puebla over 4.5 corners	56.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Puebla under 4.5 corners	43.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Puebla over 5.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Puebla over 6.5 corners	31.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Puebla under 3.5 corners	29.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Puebla under 2.5 corners	16.5%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla under 3.5 goals	96.0%	96.4%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Puebla under 2.5 goals	86.5%	87.3%	77.8%	1.12×	1.15
Puebla over 0.5 goals	71.7%	74.2%	81.9%	0.91×	1.35
Puebla under 1.5 goals	64.0%	63.5%	51.3%	1.24×	1.58
Puebla over 1.5 goals	36.0%	36.5%	48.7%	0.75×	2.74
Puebla under 0.5 goals	28.3%	25.8%	18.1%	1.43×	3.87
Puebla over 2.5 goals	13.5%	12.7%	22.2%	0.57×	7.85
Puebla over 3.5 goals	4.0%	3.6%	7.6%	0.48×	27.44

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla under 1.5 in 1st half	89.6%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Puebla under 0.5 in 1st half	58.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Puebla over 0.5 in 1st half	41.9%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Puebla over 1.5 in 1st half	10.4%	10.1%	—	—	9.86

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León (home no bet)	53.5%	51.6%	55.2%	0.94×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	46.5%	48.4%	44.8%	1.08×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla even goals	54.0%	50.6%	49.9%	1.01×	1.97
Puebla odd goals	46.0%	49.4%	50.1%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
HT 1-0	19.3%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 0-1	17.1%	18.7%	—	—	5.34
HT 1-1	9.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
HT 2-0	5.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 0-2	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.30
Any other HT score	3.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.38
HT 2-1	2.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.42
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.44
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.57

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla at HT / Puebla at FT	21.1%	21.8%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
León at HT / León at FT	18.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Puebla at FT	13.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / León at FT	13.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Puebla at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
León at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Puebla at HT / León at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
León at HT / Puebla at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.89

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla to score last	46.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
León to score last	44.1%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	9.6%	7.6%	—	—	13.17

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.4%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Puebla to lead by 1 at any time	52.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
León to lead by 1 at any time	50.3%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.8%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Puebla to lead by 2 at any time	21.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
León to lead by 2 at any time	20.0%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.4%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Puebla to lead by 3 at any time	7.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.07
León to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.12

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla most corners	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
León most corners	42.9%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.4%	87.4%	86.5%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.9%	78.6%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-6 goals	70.4%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.8%	69.0%	70.9%	0.97×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.8%	69.0%	61.8%	1.12×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.4%	60.2%	1.05×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.2%	48.7%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.6%	48.7%	37.7%	1.29×	2.06
3-6 goals	43.5%	43.6%	53.3%	0.82×	2.30
3-5 goals	40.8%	43.6%	49.0%	0.89×	2.30
3-4 goals	34.4%	35.4%	38.4%	0.92×	2.83
4-6 goals	22.3%	24.5%	29.1%	0.84×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.6%	18.6%	24.9%	0.75×	5.37
5-6 goals	9.1%	8.7%	15.1%	0.58×	11.44
7+ goals	1.3%	2.5%	2.8%	0.90×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Puebla never behind	40.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
León never behind	37.7%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.4%	50.8%	52.6%	0.97×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.6%	49.2%	47.4%	1.04×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.4%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.0%	95.5%	92.9%	1.03×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	90.4%	92.3%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.5%	87.7%	82.2%	1.07×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.4%	77.3%	68.2%	1.13×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	71.8%	72.5%	77.8%	0.93×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	55.2%	58.8%	44.1%	1.34×	1.70
Over 2.5 goals	44.8%	41.2%	56.0%	0.74×	2.43
Under 1.5 goals	28.2%	27.5%	22.2%	1.24×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	23.6%	22.7%	31.8%	0.71×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	10.5%	12.3%	17.8%	0.70×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	9.6%	7.7%	6.6%	1.18×	12.91
Over 5.5 goals	4.0%	4.5%	7.1%	0.63×	22.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.6%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.7%	97.2%	92.0%	1.06×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.9%	86.7%	79.3%	1.09×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.0%	72.5%	58.1%	1.25×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	61.4%	62.1%	71.6%	0.87×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	38.6%	37.9%	28.4%	1.34×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.0%	27.5%	41.9%	0.65×	3.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.1%	13.3%	20.7%	0.64×	7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.3%	2.8%	8.0%	0.35×	36.10
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.4%	2.8%	3.0%	0.93×	36.18

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.5%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.4%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.0%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.0%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.6%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.5%	7.4%	—	—	13.56

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.3%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.0%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.3%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.0%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León not to score in both halves	80.3%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Puebla not to score in both halves	78.5%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Puebla to score in both halves	21.5%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
León to score in both halves	19.7%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.4%	53.9%	59.3%	0.91×	1.86
Only Puebla scores	20.4%	22.3%	22.7%	0.98×	4.48
Only León scores	18.7%	16.1%	11.7%	1.37×	6.22
Neither team scores	9.6%	7.2%	6.6%	1.10×	13.89

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.9%	25.0%	22.0%	1.13×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.2%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	18.6%	17.4%	15.8%	1.10×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	13.1%	12.1%	14.2%	0.85×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	9.6%	7.6%	6.6%	1.16×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	6.5%	7.6%	10.8%	0.71×	13.09
6 or more goals	4.0%	4.4%	7.1%	0.62×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.7%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
1 goal in 2nd half	33.3%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	24.0%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León not to win both halves	92.2%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Puebla not to win both halves	90.9%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Puebla to win both halves	9.1%	6.1%	—	—	16.41
León to win both halves	7.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.50

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León to win neither half	52.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Puebla to win either half	50.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Puebla to win neither half	49.4%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
León to win either half	47.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
León not to win to nil	81.3%	83.0%	88.3%	0.94×	1.21
Puebla not to win to nil	79.6%	78.1%	77.3%	1.01×	1.28
Puebla to win to nil	20.4%	21.9%	22.7%	0.96×	4.56
León to win to nil	18.7%	17.0%	11.7%	1.45×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.4%	27.9%	23.8%	1.17×	3.59
Puebla by 1	20.1%	24.1%	24.3%	0.99×	4.14
León by 1	19.1%	16.9%	19.0%	0.89×	5.91
Puebla by 2	10.9%	11.8%	14.0%	0.84×	8.48
León by 2	9.9%	7.3%	7.3%	1.00×	13.77
Puebla by 3+	5.7%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.79
León by 3+	4.9%	2.7%	3.4%	0.80×	36.93