Racing Santander v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Racing Santander

11:00

Alaves

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 151h before kick-off

Racing Santander win

54.9%

model 54.2%

Draw

22.6%

model 23.9%

Alaves win

22.5%

model 21.9%

552323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 11.4%
1-1 11.4%
2-0 9.8%
2-1 9.7%
0-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.8%	Under 2.5	49.2%
BTTS yes	51.6%	BTTS no	48.4%
Racing Santander 1+	81.9%	Racing Santander 2+	51.0%
Alaves 1+	63.0%	Alaves 2+	26.2%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

96/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Racing Santander leading at HT

Half time · usually 35%

52.7% fair odds 1.90

moderate signal · 178 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Alaves not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 82%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Racing Santander carry the stronger rating, 1590 Elo against 1536.

Risk factors

Alaves have scored 2.20 a match from 1.55 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Racing Santander have an estimated 54.9% win probability, against 22.6% for the draw and 22.5% for Alaves. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.71 for Racing Santander and 0.99 for Alaves.

Why Racing Santander

Racing Santander carry the stronger rating, 1590 Elo against 1536.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Alaves can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Alaves average 1.76 xG a match.

Key players

Racing Santander's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrés Martín (0.43), Yassir Zabiri (0.26), Iñigo Vicente (0.24). Alaves's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Martínez (0.51), Lucas Boyé (0.44), Ángel Pérez (0.29).

Availability

1 of Racing Santander's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Alaves's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Racing Santander: 48% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces. Alaves: 45% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Racing Santander are the model's most likely outcome at 54.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.4%. Confidence 96/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Racing Santander are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 4.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLWL last 4 scored 7 from 6.3 xG conceded 8 from 4.0 xG

Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WLDWWLWDWW last 10 scored 18 from 15.5 xG conceded 11 from 9.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	542422	1.71–0.99	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	502624	1.51–0.95	1-0 13%	45%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to win	52.1%	51.4%	46.9%	1.10×	1.95
Draw	24.7%	24.5%	25.1%	0.97×	4.09
Alaves to win	23.2%	24.5%	28.1%	0.87×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander & not both score	29.5%	25.2%	25.3%	0.99×	3.97
Racing Santander & both teams score	22.6%	21.9%	21.7%	1.01×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	17.5%	17.9%	20.1%	0.89×	5.58
Alaves & not both score	12.3%	13.3%	14.6%	0.91×	7.54
Alaves & both teams score	10.9%	13.3%	13.6%	0.97×	7.55
Draw & not both score	7.1%	8.4%	5.1%	1.64×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander & over 1.5	40.5%	40.3%	34.2%	1.18×	2.48
Racing Santander & under 3.5	36.0%	34.9%	33.1%	1.05×	2.87
Racing Santander & over 2.5	30.9%	30.9%	28.1%	1.10×	3.24
Racing Santander & under 2.5	21.2%	21.7%	19.0%	1.14×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	18.9%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.9%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.5%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.56
Alaves & under 3.5	17.9%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.56
Racing Santander & over 3.5	16.1%	18.0%	14.0%	1.29×	5.56
Alaves & over 1.5	16.0%	18.0%	21.1%	0.85×	5.56
Alaves & over 2.5	12.4%	12.9%	16.6%	0.78×	7.77
Racing Santander & under 1.5	11.7%	12.9%	12.9%	1.00×	7.77
Alaves & under 2.5	10.8%	12.9%	11.6%	1.11×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.70
Alaves & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	7.1%	1.11×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.8%	7.9%	5.2%	1.50×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.8%	7.9%	5.2%	1.50×	12.70
Alaves & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (1UP)	65.7%	69.8%	63.2%	1.10×	1.43
Alaves (1UP)	40.3%	39.2%	47.1%	0.83×	2.55

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (2UP)	52.1%	55.6%	48.8%	1.14×	1.80
Alaves (2UP)	23.2%	23.7%	29.7%	0.80×	4.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.0%	41.0%	33.0%	1.24×	2.44
Alaves to win 2nd half	29.6%	26.4%	27.7%	0.95×	3.80
Racing Santander to win 2nd half	29.4%	26.3%	39.4%	0.67×	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (+2.5)	88.1%	88.5%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Racing Santander (+0.5)	76.8%	78.4%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Alaves (+1.5)	72.1%	73.7%	79.2%	0.93×	1.36
Racing Santander (-0.5)	52.1%	52.3%	46.9%	1.11×	1.91
Alaves (+0.5)	47.9%	47.7%	53.1%	0.90×	2.10
Racing Santander (-1.5)	27.9%	26.3%	20.8%	1.26×	3.80
Alaves (-0.5)	23.2%	21.6%	28.1%	0.77×	4.64
Racing Santander (-2.5)	11.9%	11.5%	10.0%	1.15×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to concede	80.5%	81.3%	80.4%	1.01×	1.23
Alaves clean sheet	19.5%	18.7%	19.6%	0.96×	5.34

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to concede in 1st half	63.7%	65.0%	48.1%	1.35×	1.54
Alaves clean sheet in 1st half	36.3%	35.0%	51.9%	0.67×	2.86

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves over 2.5 corners	81.5%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Alaves under 6.5 corners	74.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Alaves over 3.5 corners	67.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Alaves under 5.5 corners	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Alaves over 4.5 corners	51.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Alaves under 4.5 corners	48.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Alaves over 5.5 corners	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Alaves under 3.5 corners	32.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Alaves over 6.5 corners	25.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Alaves under 2.5 corners	18.5%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves under 3.5 goals	98.1%	97.5%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Alaves under 2.5 goals	91.9%	92.3%	90.1%	1.02×	1.08
Alaves under 1.5 goals	73.4%	72.0%	68.2%	1.06×	1.39
Alaves over 0.5 goals	63.3%	63.0%	69.7%	0.90×	1.59
Alaves under 0.5 goals	36.7%	37.0%	30.3%	1.22×	2.70
Alaves over 1.5 goals	26.6%	28.0%	31.8%	0.88×	3.57
Alaves over 2.5 goals	8.1%	7.7%	9.9%	0.78×	13.03
Alaves over 3.5 goals	1.9%	2.5%	2.7%	0.89×	40.78

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves under 1.5 in 1st half	94.4%	94.3%	93.4%	1.01×	1.06
Alaves under 0.5 in 1st half	68.5%	68.4%	63.5%	1.08×	1.46
Alaves over 0.5 in 1st half	31.5%	31.6%	36.5%	0.86×	3.17
Alaves over 1.5 in 1st half	5.6%	5.7%	6.6%	0.87×	17.39

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (away no bet)	67.9%	66.4%	65.2%	1.02×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	32.1%	33.6%	34.8%	0.97×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves even goals	56.7%	56.9%	54.1%	1.05×	1.76
Alaves odd goals	43.3%	43.1%	45.9%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.6%	87.6%	87.0%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.4%	12.4%	13.0%	0.96×	8.04

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.6%	57.9%	62.5%	0.93×	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.4%	42.1%	37.5%	1.12×	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.0%	51.5%	52.3%	0.98×	1.94
Racing Santander to score 2+ in a row	41.2%	38.3%	34.3%	1.12×	2.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.1%	19.5%	18.9%	1.03×	5.14
Alaves to score 2+ in a row	19.0%	16.4%	23.5%	0.70×	6.11
Racing Santander to score 3+ in a row	16.0%	16.3%	13.0%	1.25×	6.13
Alaves to score 3+ in a row	4.3%	2.6%	6.4%	0.41×	37.93

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander corners (+3.5)	88.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Racing Santander corners (+2.5)	83.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Racing Santander corners (+1.5)	76.8%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Alaves corners (+3.5)	69.2%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Alaves corners (+2.5)	60.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Alaves corners (+1.5)	50.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Racing Santander corners (-1.5)	49.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Racing Santander corners (-2.5)	39.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Racing Santander corners (-3.5)	30.8%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Alaves corners (-1.5)	23.2%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Alaves corners (-2.5)	16.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Alaves corners (-3.5)	11.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	46.0%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
0-8 corners	25.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	82.2%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	74.2%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	62.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 10.5 corners	55.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	54.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	46.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	44.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	37.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 9.5 corners	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 8.5 corners	25.8%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	17.8%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	11.7%	11.5%	12.9%	0.89×	8.73
1-1	11.7%	11.5%	15.0%	0.76×	8.73
2-0	9.6%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.48
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.48
0-0	7.1%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.48
0-1	7.2%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
1-2	5.9%	7.4%	8.4%	0.89×	13.48
3-0	5.2%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.48
3-1	5.2%	7.4%	3.6%	2.05×	13.48
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.46
0-2	3.6%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.47
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.48
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.96×	58.49
1-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.48
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.42×	58.49
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.48
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.42×	58.49
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.47
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.71×	58.48
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.57×	58.49
4-0	2.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.48
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.48
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.28×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.69×	58.49
Any other score	2.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander leading at HT (DNB)	79.0%	78.3%	62.3%	1.26×	1.28
Alaves leading at HT (DNB)	21.0%	21.7%	37.7%	0.57×	4.62

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander or draw (1X)	76.8%	75.5%	71.9%	1.05×	1.32
Racing Santander or Alaves (12)	75.4%	75.5%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Alaves or draw (X2)	47.9%	48.6%	53.1%	0.92×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander or draw at HT	86.4%	88.1%	78.6%	1.12×	1.14
Racing Santander or Alaves at HT	64.7%	62.1%	56.7%	1.10×	1.61
Alaves or draw at HT	48.9%	52.3%	64.6%	0.81×	1.91

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander or draw (1UP)	76.8%	83.9%	78.2%	1.07×	1.19
Alaves or draw (1UP)	47.9%	52.7%	60.0%	0.88×	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw in 2nd half	70.6%	73.7%	60.6%	1.22×	1.36
Racing Santander or draw in 2nd half	70.4%	73.7%	72.3%	1.02×	1.36
Racing Santander or Alaves in 2nd half	59.0%	59.0%	67.0%	0.88×	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.9%	61.5%	62.3%	0.99×	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.1%	38.5%	37.7%	1.02×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (DNB)	69.2%	67.2%	62.6%	1.07×	1.49
Alaves (DNB)	30.8%	32.8%	37.4%	0.88×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score first	57.5%	61.9%	55.4%	1.12×	1.62
Alaves to score first	35.3%	32.7%	39.5%	0.83×	3.05
No goal scored	7.1%	7.5%	5.1%	1.46×	13.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.0%	51.4%	55.2%	0.93×	1.95
Not both teams to score	49.0%	48.6%	44.8%	1.08×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	39.3%	38.5%	40.3%	0.95×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	39.1%	38.5%	35.5%	1.09×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.7%	12.3%	15.0%	0.82×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.9%	8.4%	9.5%	0.88×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.1%	85.6%	86.3%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.9%	14.4%	13.7%	1.05×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.5%	75.4%	71.5%	1.06×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.5%	24.6%	28.5%	0.86×	4.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.7%	66.5%	60.3%	1.10×	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	17.2%	15.6%	23.0%	0.68×	6.40
Both score 1st half only	15.7%	15.6%	11.3%	1.38×	6.43
Both score in both halves	4.3%	5.0%	5.6%	0.90×	19.83

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.9%	81.6%	83.2%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.1%	18.4%	16.8%	1.10×	5.43

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.6%	53.5%	54.7%	0.98×	1.87
A half without a goal	46.4%	46.5%	45.3%	1.03×	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
0-1 goals	26.0%	26.4%	24.8%	1.06×	3.78
4-6 goals	25.4%	26.4%	23.3%	1.13×	3.78
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	2.2%	0.81×	54.61

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score exactly 0	36.7%	36.0%	30.3%	1.19×	2.78
Alaves to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	38.0%	0.95×	2.78
Alaves to score exactly 2	18.5%	19.6%	22.1%	0.89×	5.11
Alaves to score 3+	8.1%	8.5%	9.9%	0.86×	11.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score exactly 1	31.9%	32.6%	38.3%	0.85×	3.06
Racing Santander to score exactly 2	26.1%	26.5%	22.6%	1.17×	3.77
Racing Santander to score 3+	22.6%	23.2%	19.7%	1.18×	4.30
Racing Santander to score exactly 0	19.5%	18.9%	19.6%	0.96×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander leading at HT	51.1%	47.7%	35.4%	1.35×	2.10
Draw at HT	35.3%	37.9%	43.3%	0.87×	2.64
Alaves leading at HT	13.6%	11.9%	21.4%	0.56×	8.39

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander -1: 2	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Racing Santander -1: 1	27.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Racing Santander -1: X	24.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (0:1)	47.9%	46.0%	53.1%	0.87×	2.18
Racing Santander (0:1)	27.9%	27.0%	20.8%	1.30×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	24.3%	24.3%	26.2%	0.93×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (0:2)	72.1%	75.6%	79.2%	0.96×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	16.0%	15.3%	11.0%	1.39×	6.55
Racing Santander (0:2)	11.9%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.12

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (0:3)	88.1%	90.8%	90.0%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.7%	5.8%	7.1%	0.82×	17.15
Racing Santander (0:3)	4.1%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (0:4)	95.9%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.9%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	83.34
Racing Santander (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	0.7%	1.60×	83.54

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (1:0)	76.8%	78.4%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	14.9%	12.8%	17.6%	0.73×	7.80
Alaves (1:0)	8.3%	6.9%	10.6%	0.65×	14.43

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (2:0)	91.7%	93.9%	89.4%	1.05×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	6.0%	6.5%	6.9%	0.94×	15.50
Alaves (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	3.9%	0.58×	44.23

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	40.3%	48.7%	26.4%	1.84×	2.05
2nd half highest scoring	33.6%	29.5%	51.3%	0.57×	3.39
Halves equal	26.1%	26.5%	22.4%	1.18×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to concede	63.3%	63.4%	69.7%	0.91×	1.58
Racing Santander clean sheet	36.7%	36.6%	30.3%	1.21×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander clean sheet in 1st half	68.5%	68.7%	63.5%	1.08×	1.46
Racing Santander to concede in 1st half	31.5%	31.3%	36.5%	0.86×	3.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander over 2.5 corners	90.9%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Racing Santander over 3.5 corners	81.9%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Racing Santander over 4.5 corners	70.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Racing Santander over 5.5 corners	57.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Racing Santander under 6.5 corners	54.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Racing Santander over 6.5 corners	45.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Racing Santander under 5.5 corners	42.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Racing Santander under 4.5 corners	29.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Racing Santander under 3.5 corners	18.1%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Racing Santander under 2.5 corners	9.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 3.5 goals	91.6%	92.2%	92.6%	1.00×	1.08
Racing Santander over 0.5 goals	80.5%	82.1%	80.4%	1.02×	1.22
Racing Santander under 2.5 goals	77.4%	77.7%	80.3%	0.97×	1.29
Racing Santander under 1.5 goals	51.3%	53.2%	57.8%	0.92×	1.88
Racing Santander over 1.5 goals	48.7%	46.8%	42.2%	1.11×	2.14
Racing Santander over 2.5 goals	22.6%	22.3%	19.7%	1.13×	4.49
Racing Santander under 0.5 goals	19.5%	17.9%	19.6%	0.91×	5.59
Racing Santander over 3.5 goals	8.4%	7.8%	7.4%	1.05×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 1.5 in 1st half	73.1%	79.9%	86.0%	0.93×	1.25
Racing Santander over 0.5 in 1st half	63.7%	64.8%	48.1%	1.35×	1.54
Racing Santander under 0.5 in 1st half	36.3%	35.2%	51.9%	0.68×	2.84
Racing Santander over 1.5 in 1st half	26.9%	20.1%	14.0%	1.43×	4.99

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	51.5%	51.6%	47.2%	1.09×	1.94
Alaves (home no bet)	48.5%	48.4%	52.8%	0.92×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander even goals	51.9%	50.6%	47.4%	1.07×	1.98
Racing Santander odd goals	48.1%	49.4%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	25.2%	28.8%	22.7%	1.27×	3.48
HT 0-0	24.9%	24.2%	32.2%	0.75×	4.14
HT 2-0	12.8%	10.9%	6.3%	1.75×	9.15
HT 1-1	9.5%	7.1%	10.1%	0.70×	14.01
HT 0-1	9.4%	7.1%	16.3%	0.44×	14.01
Any other HT score	8.9%	7.1%	4.5%	1.58×	14.02
HT 2-1	4.8%	2.3%	3.3%	0.71×	43.26
HT 0-2	1.8%	2.3%	3.0%	0.77×	43.48
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.3%	1.5%	1.53×	43.48
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	1.3%	1.84×	43.54

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander at HT / Racing Santander at FT	40.9%	42.9%	26.5%	1.62×	2.33
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.5%	12.7%	14.0%	0.91×	7.88
Draw at HT / Alaves at FT	10.5%	12.7%	11.5%	1.10×	7.90
Draw at HT / Racing Santander at FT	10.4%	12.7%	18.0%	0.70×	7.90
Alaves at HT / Alaves at FT	10.1%	12.7%	12.8%	0.99×	7.91
Racing Santander at HT / Draw at FT	7.6%	6.0%	5.1%	1.17×	16.66
Racing Santander at HT / Alaves at FT	2.6%	3.5%	4.0%	0.87×	28.86
Alaves at HT / Draw at FT	2.6%	3.5%	6.1%	0.57×	28.86
Alaves at HT / Racing Santander at FT	0.9%	3.5%	2.8%	1.26×	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score last	57.5%	56.5%	55.8%	1.01×	1.77
Alaves to score last	35.3%	38.4%	39.2%	0.98×	2.60
No goal scored	7.1%	7.5%	5.1%	1.46×	13.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.9%	92.6%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Racing Santander to lead by 1 at any time	65.7%	69.4%	63.2%	1.10×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.6%	44.0%	41.6%	1.06×	2.27
Alaves to lead by 1 at any time	40.3%	39.2%	47.1%	0.83×	2.55
Racing Santander to lead by 2 at any time	34.0%	29.5%	26.5%	1.11×	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.3%	14.9%	16.8%	0.89×	6.71
Racing Santander to lead by 3 at any time	14.1%	10.5%	12.3%	0.86×	9.52
Alaves to lead by 2 at any time	12.8%	10.5%	15.4%	0.68×	9.54
Alaves to lead by 3 at any time	3.3%	1.6%	4.6%	0.35×	61.09

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander most corners	59.2%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Alaves most corners	31.5%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	9.3%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.0%	83.5%	81.3%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	72.2%	72.4%	73.0%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.8%	69.0%	69.4%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.6%	68.9%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.2%	63.4%	61.5%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.3%	48.7%	47.6%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.7%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
3-5 goals	43.9%	43.6%	43.9%	0.99×	2.30
1-2 goals	43.7%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.30
3-4 goals	36.3%	39.1%	36.1%	1.09×	2.56
4-6 goals	25.4%	30.2%	23.3%	1.30×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.1%	24.5%	19.7%	1.24×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.0%	14.9%	11.6%	1.28×	6.73
7+ goals	1.8%	2.5%	2.2%	1.13×	39.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander never behind	52.6%	61.9%	52.9%	1.17×	1.62
Alaves never behind	27.2%	30.0%	36.8%	0.82×	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.8%	53.7%	0.95×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.2%	46.3%	1.06×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.1%	51.7%	53.6%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.9%	48.3%	46.4%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.1%	52.1%	49.8%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.9%	47.9%	50.2%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	94.1%	0.98×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.2%	87.6%	86.3%	1.02×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.0%	72.5%	75.2%	0.97×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.7%	72.5%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.9%	52.5%	50.3%	1.04×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.1%	47.5%	49.7%	0.96×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	27.3%	27.5%	25.5%	1.08×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	26.0%	27.5%	24.8%	1.11×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	12.8%	12.4%	13.7%	0.90×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	5.1%	1.51×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	5.9%	1.32×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.2%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.4%	92.5%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.0%	86.7%	84.4%	1.03×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.4%	67.4%	66.7%	1.01×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.1%	67.4%	66.4%	1.01×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.9%	32.6%	33.6%	0.97×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.6%	32.6%	33.3%	0.98×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.0%	13.3%	15.6%	0.85×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.6%	7.5%	6.4%	1.18×	13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.8%	2.3%	1.19×	36.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.5%	86.3%	89.9%	0.96×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.1%	78.7%	67.8%	1.16×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.5%	62.8%	70.8%	0.89×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.5%	37.2%	29.2%	1.27×	2.69
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.9%	21.3%	32.2%	0.66×	4.69
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.5%	13.7%	10.1%	1.35×	7.29

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.9%	85.3%	79.7%	1.07×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.3%	77.6%	81.7%	0.95×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.6%	61.9%	53.7%	1.15×	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.4%	38.1%	46.3%	0.82×	2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.7%	22.4%	18.3%	1.22×	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.1%	14.7%	20.3%	0.72×	6.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves not to score in both halves	85.4%	85.6%	81.5%	1.05×	1.17
Racing Santander not to score in both halves	70.5%	73.7%	73.6%	1.00×	1.36
Racing Santander to score in both halves	29.5%	26.3%	26.4%	1.00×	3.80
Alaves to score in both halves	14.6%	14.4%	18.5%	0.78×	6.96

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.0%	53.9%	55.2%	0.98×	1.86
Only Racing Santander scores	29.5%	26.1%	25.3%	1.03×	3.83
Only Alaves scores	12.3%	10.9%	14.6%	0.75×	9.15
Neither team scores	7.1%	7.2%	5.1%	1.40×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.9%	22.6%	25.6%	0.88×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	18.8%	17.4%	19.9%	0.88×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	14.4%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	7.6%	7.6%	8.0%	0.96×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	7.1%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.09
6 or more goals	5.2%	7.6%	5.9%	1.30×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.8%	39.5%	35.5%	1.11×	2.53
2+ goals in 2nd half	35.4%	39.5%	46.3%	0.85×	2.53
No goals in 2nd half	28.7%	29.9%	18.3%	1.63×	3.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves not to win both halves	96.0%	97.2%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Racing Santander not to win both halves	85.0%	87.8%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Racing Santander to win both halves	15.0%	12.2%	11.9%	1.03×	8.20
Alaves to win both halves	4.0%	2.8%	5.4%	0.52×	35.55

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to win either half	65.4%	67.8%	63.0%	1.08×	1.48
Alaves to win neither half	60.8%	65.0%	56.3%	1.15×	1.54
Alaves to win either half	39.2%	35.0%	43.7%	0.80×	2.86
Racing Santander to win neither half	34.6%	32.2%	37.0%	0.87×	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves not to win to nil	87.7%	88.2%	85.4%	1.03×	1.13
Racing Santander not to win to nil	70.5%	75.3%	74.7%	1.01×	1.33
Racing Santander to win to nil	29.5%	24.7%	25.3%	0.98×	4.04
Alaves to win to nil	12.3%	11.8%	14.6%	0.81×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.7%	24.2%	25.1%	0.96×	4.14
Racing Santander by 1	24.3%	24.2%	26.2%	0.92×	4.14
Racing Santander by 2	16.0%	16.9%	11.0%	1.54×	5.91
Alaves by 1	14.9%	11.8%	17.6%	0.67×	8.47
Racing Santander by 3+	11.9%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.48
Alaves by 2	6.0%	7.3%	6.9%	1.06×	13.79
Alaves by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	3.9%	0.70×	37.01