RasenBallsport Leipzig v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 August 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 5
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.47 – 0.34
Goals − xG
-1.32 – -0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
50.6%
Draw
26.5%
FC Heidenheim win
23.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.93–1.22 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 3.32 xGFC Heidenheim 0.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Kerber |
| 8' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Léo Scienza |
| 11' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 11' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Léo Scienza |
| 27' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 32' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 34' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 35' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Castello Lukeba | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 47' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | David Raum |
| 55' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.11 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 64' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bote Baku |
| 64' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | David Raum |
| 66' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 69' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 70' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Willi Orban |
| 73' |
FC Heidenheim |
Sirlord Conteh | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Julian Niehues |
| 77' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.69 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bote Baku |
| 86' |
FC Heidenheim |
Léo Scienza | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Budu Zivzivadze |
| 89' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bote Baku |
| 90' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 1.27 | 1.65 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 1.91 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.96 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.94 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.52 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1.52 |
| Rômulo FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.16 | 0.94 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Johan Bakayoko FWR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yan Diomande Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Nicolas Seiwald Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.46 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Assan Ouédraogo Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Scienza AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Marnon Busch DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Honsak AML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Luca Kerber DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic AMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Niklas Dorsch DMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Mikkel Kaufmann FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Budu Zivzivadze Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Sirlord Conteh Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Julian Niehues Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Adrian Beck Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Omar Traoré Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |