RasenBallsport Leipzig v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 15
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 13
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.85 – +0.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
37.9%
Draw
30.1%
Mainz 05 win
32.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLWLWD last 10
scored 15
from 22.2 xG
conceded 12
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1.85 xGMainz 05 1.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Amadou Haidara | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 0' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 3' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 4' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Amadou Haidara | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 6' |
 Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 8' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 22' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | El Chadaille Bitshiabu |
| 31' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andreas Hanche-Olsen |
| 39' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lutsharel Geertruida |
| 42' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 50' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 51' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 54' |
Mainz 05 |
Jae-Sung Lee | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Danny da Costa |
| 57' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nadiem Amiri |
| 69' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 73' |
Mainz 05 |
Andreas Hanche-Olsen | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 73' |
Mainz 05 |
Anthony Caci | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Kaishu Sano |
| 73' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Danny da Costa |
| 77' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 81' |
Mainz 05 |
Philipp Mwene | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 85' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Castello Lukeba | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 88' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kosta Nedeljkovic |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
Players
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nebel AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.39 |
| Jae-Sung Lee AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| Anthony Caci DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Robin Zentner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 87 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.12 | 1.19 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.41 | 0.64 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavi Simons AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 1.44 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Bote Baku MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Raum ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| Arthur Vermeeren MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Loïs Openda FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Amadou Haidara MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Nicolas Seiwald Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kevin Kampl Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Castello Lukeba Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |