Rayo Vallecano v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 3 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 9
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.51 – -0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
50.4%
Draw
27.0%
Elche win
22.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWDDWWLDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 14
from 17.1 xG
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.58–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–1.10 | 2-1 10% | 62% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 1.52 xGElche 0.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | German Valera |
| 8' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 10' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Elche |
Tete Morente | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 16' |
Elche |
Pedro Bigas | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 17' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 17' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tete Morente |
| 23' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 24' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Álvaro García |
| 28' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luiz Felipe |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 30' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matías Dituro |
| 32' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro García |
| 33' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 45' |
Elche |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 45' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 45' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | German Valera |
| 48' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Valentín |
| 57' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 59' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 60' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 64' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Andrei Ratiu |
| 69' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 70' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 70' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 71' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alemão |
| 73' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álvaro García |
| 76' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge De Frutos FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.48 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 1.03 |
| Unai López MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.62 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| Luiz Felipe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Álvaro García FWL | 85 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.58 | 0.94 |
| Alemão FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Isi Palazón MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Óscar Valentín MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.40 |
| Randy Nteka Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sergio Camello Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfonso Espino Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Martín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tete Morente DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| German Valera FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Leo Petrot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Buba Sangaré DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Rafa Mir FWL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Pedro Bigas DC | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| André Silva Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Redondo Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonzalo Villar Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yago Alonso Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |