RB Salzburg v SK Sturm Graz — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · AUT-Bundesliga · 2627

AUT-Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

RB Salzburg

11:00

SK Sturm Graz

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 343h before kick-off

RB Salzburg win

44.2%

model 43.0%

Draw

27.5%

model 26.2%

SK Sturm Graz win

28.3%

model 30.8%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.2%
2-1 9.1%
1-2 7.6%
1-0 7.1%
2-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.5%	Under 2.5	42.5%
BTTS yes	60.9%	BTTS no	39.1%
RB Salzburg 1+	80.5%	RB Salzburg 2+	48.7%
SK Sturm Graz 1+	74.3%	SK Sturm Graz 2+	39.3%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.36. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

21/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 76%

78.9% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2094 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

RB Salzburg over 0.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 78%

82.7% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1110 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0106 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

RB Salzburg have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 28.3% for SK Sturm Graz and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for RB Salzburg and 1.36 for SK Sturm Graz.

Why RB Salzburg

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why SK Sturm Graz can win

They have had 21 days' rest to RB Salzburg's 18.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for RB Salzburg, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for SK Sturm Graz, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

RB Salzburg: 64% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. SK Sturm Graz: 55% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

RB Salzburg are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	432631	1.64–1.36	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	402733	1.52–1.38	1-1 13%	55%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg to win	39.6%	36.4%	43.6%	0.84×	2.74
SK Sturm Graz to win	33.4%	30.4%	31.4%	0.97×	3.29
Draw	27.0%	27.9%	25.2%	1.10×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg & both teams score	21.1%	21.9%	21.2%	1.03×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	20.3%	21.9%	18.1%	1.21×	4.57
RB Salzburg & not both score	18.5%	17.9%	22.6%	0.79×	5.58
SK Sturm Graz & both teams score	18.1%	17.9%	16.9%	1.06×	5.58
SK Sturm Graz & not both score	15.3%	17.9%	14.8%	1.21×	5.58
Draw & not both score	6.6%	8.4%	7.4%	1.14×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg & over 1.5	32.4%	30.9%	34.8%	0.89×	3.24
SK Sturm Graz & over 1.5	26.9%	26.0%	25.5%	1.02×	3.84
RB Salzburg & over 2.5	26.0%	26.0%	27.6%	0.94×	3.84
RB Salzburg & under 3.5	25.6%	26.0%	30.5%	0.85×	3.84
SK Sturm Graz & under 3.5	22.1%	21.7%	22.1%	0.98×	4.62
SK Sturm Graz & over 2.5	21.7%	21.7%	20.0%	1.08×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	20.3%	21.7%	18.1%	1.20×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.5%	0.92×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.5%	0.92×	5.56
RB Salzburg & under 2.5	13.6%	12.9%	16.2%	0.79×	7.77
RB Salzburg & over 3.5	14.0%	12.9%	13.3%	0.97×	7.77
SK Sturm Graz & under 2.5	11.7%	12.9%	11.7%	1.10×	7.77
SK Sturm Graz & over 3.5	11.3%	12.9%	9.5%	1.35×	7.77
RB Salzburg & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	9.0%	0.87×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.32×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.32×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	6.6%	7.9%	7.4%	1.07×	12.70
SK Sturm Graz & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	6.2%	1.27×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg (1UP)	57.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
SK Sturm Graz (1UP)	52.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg (2UP)	39.6%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
SK Sturm Graz (2UP)	33.4%	31.0%	—	—	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	34.9%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
RB Salzburg to win 2nd half	33.6%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
SK Sturm Graz to win 2nd half	31.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz (+2.5)	92.2%	92.1%	90.7%	1.02×	1.09
SK Sturm Graz (+1.5)	80.1%	82.4%	76.9%	1.07×	1.21
RB Salzburg (+0.5)	66.6%	68.7%	68.6%	1.00×	1.46
SK Sturm Graz (+0.5)	60.4%	62.9%	56.4%	1.11×	1.59
RB Salzburg (-0.5)	39.6%	37.1%	43.6%	0.85×	2.70
SK Sturm Graz (-0.5)	33.4%	31.3%	31.4%	1.00×	3.20
RB Salzburg (-1.5)	19.9%	17.6%	23.1%	0.76×	5.68
RB Salzburg (-2.5)	7.8%	7.9%	9.3%	0.85×	12.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz to concede	78.1%	79.0%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
SK Sturm Graz clean sheet	21.9%	21.0%	21.9%	0.96×	4.77

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz to concede in 1st half	47.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
SK Sturm Graz clean sheet in 1st half	52.1%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz under 6.5 corners	80.7%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
SK Sturm Graz over 2.5 corners	76.0%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
SK Sturm Graz under 5.5 corners	70.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
SK Sturm Graz over 3.5 corners	59.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
SK Sturm Graz under 4.5 corners	56.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
SK Sturm Graz over 4.5 corners	43.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
SK Sturm Graz under 3.5 corners	40.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
SK Sturm Graz over 5.5 corners	29.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
SK Sturm Graz under 2.5 corners	24.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
SK Sturm Graz over 6.5 corners	19.3%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz under 3.5 goals	94.9%	92.3%	96.9%	0.95×	1.08
SK Sturm Graz under 2.5 goals	83.9%	81.4%	86.9%	0.94×	1.23
SK Sturm Graz over 0.5 goals	74.8%	72.0%	70.2%	1.02×	1.39
SK Sturm Graz under 1.5 goals	59.9%	59.5%	64.8%	0.92×	1.68
SK Sturm Graz over 1.5 goals	40.1%	40.5%	35.2%	1.15×	2.47
SK Sturm Graz under 0.5 goals	25.2%	28.0%	29.8%	0.94×	3.57
SK Sturm Graz over 2.5 goals	16.1%	18.6%	13.1%	1.42×	5.38
SK Sturm Graz over 3.5 goals	5.1%	7.7%	3.1%	2.47×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz under 1.5 in 1st half	89.4%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
SK Sturm Graz under 0.5 in 1st half	57.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
SK Sturm Graz over 0.5 in 1st half	42.4%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
SK Sturm Graz over 1.5 in 1st half	10.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.22

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg (away no bet)	59.5%	57.5%	63.3%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.5%	42.5%	36.7%	1.16×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz even goals	53.2%	52.8%	53.6%	0.99×	1.89
SK Sturm Graz odd goals	46.8%	47.2%	46.4%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.9%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.87

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.8%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.2%	31.3%	—	—	3.19

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.6%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
RB Salzburg to score 2+ in a row	35.5%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
SK Sturm Graz to score 2+ in a row	30.6%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
RB Salzburg to score 3+ in a row	12.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
SK Sturm Graz to score 3+ in a row	9.4%	5.7%	—	—	17.53

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg corners (+3.5)	90.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
RB Salzburg corners (+2.5)	85.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
RB Salzburg corners (+1.5)	79.3%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
SK Sturm Graz corners (+3.5)	68.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
SK Sturm Graz corners (+2.5)	58.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
RB Salzburg corners (-1.5)	51.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
SK Sturm Graz corners (+1.5)	48.6%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
RB Salzburg corners (-2.5)	41.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
RB Salzburg corners (-3.5)	31.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
SK Sturm Graz corners (-1.5)	20.7%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
SK Sturm Graz corners (-2.5)	14.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
SK Sturm Graz corners (-3.5)	9.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	38.0%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
0-8 corners	32.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	70.4%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	67.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	62.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	57.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	52.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	47.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	42.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	38.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	32.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	29.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Under 7.5 corners	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.7%	11.5%	12.4%	0.93×	8.73
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	10.5%	0.71×	13.48
0-0	6.6%	7.4%	7.4%	1.01×	13.48
1-0	7.3%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.48
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.48
0-1	6.5%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.48
2-0	6.4%	7.4%	7.4%	1.01×	13.48
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	5.5%	1.35×	13.48
0-3	2.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.48
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.59×	58.49
1-3	3.7%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.47
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.48
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.47
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.59×	58.48
3-0	3.2%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.47
3-1	4.4%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.46
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.47
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.39×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.39×	58.49
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.48
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.48
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.48
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.49
Any other score	3.3%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg leading at HT (DNB)	55.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
SK Sturm Graz leading at HT (DNB)	44.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg or SK Sturm Graz (12)	73.0%	72.1%	74.8%	0.96×	1.39
RB Salzburg or draw (1X)	66.6%	69.6%	68.6%	1.02×	1.44
SK Sturm Graz or draw (X2)	60.4%	63.6%	56.4%	1.13×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg or draw at HT	74.3%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
SK Sturm Graz or draw at HT	67.9%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
RB Salzburg or SK Sturm Graz at HT	57.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg or draw (1UP)	66.6%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
SK Sturm Graz or draw (1UP)	60.4%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg or draw in 2nd half	68.5%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
SK Sturm Graz or draw in 2nd half	66.4%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
RB Salzburg or SK Sturm Graz in 2nd half	65.1%	65.4%	—	—	1.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.1%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.9%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg (DNB)	54.2%	51.0%	58.1%	0.88×	1.96
SK Sturm Graz (DNB)	45.8%	49.0%	41.9%	1.17×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg to score first	48.9%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
SK Sturm Graz to score first	44.4%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	6.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.35

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.5%	54.9%	55.7%	0.99×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.5%	45.1%	44.3%	1.02×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.9%	44.3%	43.6%	1.02×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	32.0%	34.3%	34.8%	0.99×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	12.7%	12.3%	12.4%	1.00×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.4%	9.8%	0.86×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.0%	83.0%	86.9%	0.96×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.0%	17.0%	13.1%	1.29×	5.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.1%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	26.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
Both score 1st half only	13.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	6.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.5%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.5%	18.4%	—	—	5.43

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.7%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	42.3%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
4-6 goals	30.1%	30.7%	26.7%	1.15×	3.26
0-1 goals	20.4%	22.8%	22.1%	1.03×	4.39
7+ goals	2.9%	1.8%	1.9%	0.96×	54.51

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz to score exactly 1	34.7%	33.8%	35.2%	0.96×	2.96
SK Sturm Graz to score exactly 0	25.2%	27.4%	29.8%	0.92×	3.65
SK Sturm Graz to score exactly 2	23.9%	22.4%	22.4%	1.00×	4.46
SK Sturm Graz to score 3+	16.1%	19.6%	13.1%	1.49×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg to score exactly 1	33.3%	32.7%	34.8%	0.94×	3.06
RB Salzburg to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.5%	25.5%	1.04×	3.77
RB Salzburg to score exactly 0	21.9%	23.2%	21.9%	1.06×	4.30
RB Salzburg to score 3+	19.6%	18.9%	18.3%	1.03×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
RB Salzburg leading at HT	32.1%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
SK Sturm Graz leading at HT	25.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg -1: 2	60.4%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
RB Salzburg -1: 1	19.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
RB Salzburg -1: X	19.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz (0:1)	60.4%	61.4%	56.4%	1.09×	1.63
RB Salzburg (0:1)	19.9%	17.8%	23.1%	0.77×	5.62
Draw (0:1)	19.7%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz (0:2)	80.1%	82.7%	76.9%	1.08×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.1%	11.0%	14.0%	0.78×	9.12
RB Salzburg (0:2)	7.8%	7.7%	9.3%	0.83×	12.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz (0:3)	92.2%	92.6%	90.7%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.3%	5.8%	6.2%	0.94×	17.19
RB Salzburg (0:3)	2.5%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz (0:4)	97.5%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	1.7%	0.72×	83.47
RB Salzburg (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.9%	0.63×	83.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg (1:0)	66.6%	69.9%	68.6%	1.02×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	17.8%	17.0%	16.4%	1.04×	5.87
SK Sturm Graz (1:0)	15.6%	17.0%	15.2%	1.12×	5.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg (2:0)	84.4%	84.6%	84.8%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.0%	10.4%	10.2%	1.01×	9.66
SK Sturm Graz (2:0)	5.6%	6.4%	5.2%	1.23×	15.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg to concede	74.8%	73.1%	70.2%	1.04×	1.37
RB Salzburg clean sheet	25.2%	26.9%	29.8%	0.90×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg clean sheet in 1st half	57.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
RB Salzburg to concede in 1st half	42.4%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg over 2.5 corners	89.2%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
RB Salzburg over 3.5 corners	79.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
RB Salzburg over 4.5 corners	66.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
RB Salzburg under 6.5 corners	58.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
RB Salzburg over 5.5 corners	53.6%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
RB Salzburg under 5.5 corners	46.4%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
RB Salzburg over 6.5 corners	41.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
RB Salzburg under 4.5 corners	33.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
RB Salzburg under 3.5 corners	20.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
RB Salzburg under 2.5 corners	10.8%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg under 3.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
RB Salzburg under 2.5 goals	80.4%	82.1%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
RB Salzburg over 0.5 goals	78.1%	77.8%	78.1%	1.00×	1.29
RB Salzburg under 1.5 goals	55.2%	58.8%	56.4%	1.04×	1.70
RB Salzburg over 1.5 goals	44.8%	41.2%	43.6%	0.95×	2.43
RB Salzburg under 0.5 goals	21.9%	22.2%	21.9%	1.02×	4.50
RB Salzburg over 2.5 goals	19.6%	17.9%	18.3%	0.98×	5.59
RB Salzburg over 3.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	7.6%	1.02×	12.92

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg under 1.5 in 1st half	86.0%	89.7%	—	—	1.12
RB Salzburg over 0.5 in 1st half	47.9%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
RB Salzburg under 0.5 in 1st half	52.1%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
RB Salzburg over 1.5 in 1st half	14.0%	10.3%	—	—	9.68

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz (home no bet)	55.4%	56.7%	55.5%	1.02×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	44.7%	43.3%	44.5%	0.97×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg even goals	52.4%	50.6%	52.1%	0.97×	1.98
RB Salzburg odd goals	47.6%	49.4%	47.9%	1.03×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
HT 1-0	19.4%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 0-1	16.4%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-1	11.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	6.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 0-2	4.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.28
Any other HT score	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.27
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.35
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.39
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.54

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg at HT / RB Salzburg at FT	23.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
SK Sturm Graz at HT / SK Sturm Graz at FT	18.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / RB Salzburg at FT	13.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / SK Sturm Graz at FT	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
RB Salzburg at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
SK Sturm Graz at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
RB Salzburg at HT / SK Sturm Graz at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
SK Sturm Graz at HT / RB Salzburg at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg to score last	48.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
SK Sturm Graz to score last	44.4%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	6.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.35

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.4%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
RB Salzburg to lead by 1 at any time	57.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
SK Sturm Graz to lead by 1 at any time	52.1%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.6%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
RB Salzburg to lead by 2 at any time	26.8%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
SK Sturm Graz to lead by 2 at any time	22.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
RB Salzburg to lead by 3 at any time	10.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
SK Sturm Graz to lead by 3 at any time	7.5%	6.6%	—	—	15.06

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg most corners	61.6%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
SK Sturm Graz most corners	28.9%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Corners level	9.5%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.0%	87.4%	86.2%	1.01×	1.14
2-6 goals	76.8%	78.6%	76.2%	1.03×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.6%	78.6%	79.3%	0.99×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.2%	72.4%	71.4%	1.01×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.8%	63.4%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.4%	63.4%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.5%	53.2%	51.4%	1.03×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.9%	48.7%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.7%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
3-4 goals	38.6%	39.2%	39.8%	0.98×	2.55
1-2 goals	38.0%	39.2%	39.8%	0.98×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.1%	35.4%	26.7%	1.33×	2.83
4-5 goals	25.6%	30.2%	21.9%	1.38×	3.31
5-6 goals	13.9%	14.9%	11.9%	1.25×	6.72
7+ goals	2.9%	2.6%	1.9%	1.34×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg never behind	41.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
SK Sturm Graz never behind	36.0%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.8%	47.9%	1.06×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.2%	52.1%	0.94×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.1%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	92.6%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.2%	82.4%	86.4%	0.95×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	79.6%	77.4%	77.9%	0.99×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	67.0%	66.2%	71.7%	0.92×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.3%	58.8%	53.1%	1.11×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	44.7%	41.2%	46.9%	0.88×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	33.0%	33.8%	28.3%	1.19×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	20.4%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	16.8%	17.6%	13.6%	1.30×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	7.4%	1.05×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.0%	97.2%	98.0%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.9%	92.5%	92.8%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	80.0%	76.0%	84.1%	0.90×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.1%	72.6%	70.6%	1.03×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.5%	55.4%	62.3%	0.89×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.5%	44.6%	37.7%	1.18×	2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.9%	27.4%	29.4%	0.93×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.0%	24.0%	15.9%	1.51×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.1%	7.5%	7.2%	1.05×	13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.0%	2.8%	2.0%	1.38×	36.13

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.9%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.8%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.9%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.2%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.2%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz not to score in both halves	76.1%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
RB Salzburg not to score in both halves	72.2%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
RB Salzburg to score in both halves	27.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
SK Sturm Graz to score in both halves	23.9%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.5%	58.4%	55.7%	1.05×	1.71
Only RB Salzburg scores	18.5%	16.1%	22.6%	0.71×	6.22
Only SK Sturm Graz scores	15.3%	16.1%	14.8%	1.09×	6.22
Neither team scores	6.6%	7.2%	7.4%	0.97×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.3%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.2%	17.4%	15.0%	1.16×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	13.8%	12.1%	15.0%	0.81×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	9.4%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.08
6 or more goals	7.4%	7.6%	6.7%	1.15×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	6.6%	7.6%	7.4%	1.04×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.8%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	30.4%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	18.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz not to win both halves	91.7%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
RB Salzburg not to win both halves	89.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
RB Salzburg to win both halves	11.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.30
SK Sturm Graz to win both halves	8.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.47

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Salzburg to win either half	54.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
SK Sturm Graz to win neither half	51.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
SK Sturm Graz to win either half	48.9%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
RB Salzburg to win neither half	45.3%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz not to win to nil	84.7%	83.0%	85.2%	0.97×	1.20
RB Salzburg not to win to nil	81.5%	83.0%	77.4%	1.07×	1.21
RB Salzburg to win to nil	18.5%	17.0%	22.6%	0.75×	5.89
SK Sturm Graz to win to nil	15.3%	17.0%	14.8%	1.15×	5.90

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.0%	27.8%	25.2%	1.10×	3.59
RB Salzburg by 1	19.7%	16.9%	20.7%	0.82×	5.91
SK Sturm Graz by 1	17.8%	16.9%	16.4%	1.03×	5.91
RB Salzburg by 2	12.1%	11.8%	14.0%	0.84×	8.48
SK Sturm Graz by 2	10.0%	11.8%	10.2%	1.15×	8.48
RB Salzburg by 3+	7.8%	7.3%	9.3%	0.78×	13.78
SK Sturm Graz by 3+	5.6%	7.3%	5.2%	1.38×	13.79