Real Betis v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 27 October 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 9
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-1.34 – +1.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
30.8%
Draw
23.1%
Atletico Madrid win
46.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–1.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–1.55 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 1.34 xGAtletico Madrid 0.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Koke |
| 2' |
Atletico Madrid |
Koke | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nicolás González | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Baena |
| 14' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nicolás González | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
 Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 27' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 29' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 31' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nicolás González | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Real Betis |
Ricardo Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Atletico Madrid |
David Hancko | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 42' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 43' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sofyan Amrabat |
| 45' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Julián Álvarez |
| 51' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 52' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 58' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 62' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 62' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 62' |
Real Betis |
Natan | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 67' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sofyan Amrabat |
| 74' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofyan Amrabat |
| 77' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cédric Bakambu |
| 80' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 87' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 0.99 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.80 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Pau López GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Sofyan Amrabat DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.59 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.50 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Giovani Lo Celso Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.37 | 1.01 |
| Aitor Ruibal Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Júnior Firpo Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Cédric Bakambu Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.02 | 0.56 |
| Nelson Deossa Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás González FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| David Hancko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Giménez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Giuliano Simeone FWR | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| Koke MC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Julián Álvarez FW | 63 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.06 | 0.55 |
| Álex Baena MC | 63 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Conor Gallagher Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Griezmann Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Sørloth Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Almada Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |