Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 12
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.43
Goals − xG
-1.14 – -0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
59.1%
Draw
24.4%
Rayo Vallecano win
16.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.73–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.91–1.17 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 2.14 xGRayo Vallecano 1.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 3' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Valentín | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 6' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 23' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 27' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 29' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cédric Bakambu |
| 29' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alfonso Espino | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cédric Bakambu |
| 41' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Andrei Ratiu |
| 47' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 70' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pathé Ciss |
| 73' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Valentín |
| 77' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Riquelme |
| 78' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 79' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 81' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 91' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 97' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ángel Ortiz |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antony FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.06 | 1.17 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Marc Roca MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aitor Ruibal DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Pablo Fornals MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.51 |
| Cédric Bakambu FW | 48 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.54 | 1.20 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Ángel Ortiz Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Valentín Gómez Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nelson Deossa Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isi Palazón AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.35 | 0.79 |
| Ilias Akhomach AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Óscar Valentín DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| Alfonso Espino DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.71 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jorge De Frutos FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gerard Gumbau DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Fran Pérez AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pathé Ciss Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro García Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pep Chavarría Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Randy Nteka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |