Real Betis v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 9
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.62 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.24 – -0.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
25.8%
Draw
23.5%
Real Madrid win
50.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–1.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 2.24 xGReal Madrid 1.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Real Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ferland Mendy |
| 12' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 16' |
Real Madrid |
Lucas Vázquez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Real Betis |
Ricardo Rodríguez | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Real Betis |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youssouf Sabaly |
| 32' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 33' |
Real Betis |
Johnny Cardoso | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Goal | Isco |
| 35' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 42' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 46' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 46' |
Real Betis |
Johnny Cardoso | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Isco |
| 46' |
Real Betis |
Johnny Cardoso | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 46' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 49' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Real Betis |
Youssouf Sabaly | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 57' |
Real Betis |
Ricardo Rodríguez | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 60' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 66' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 72' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 78' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Real Madrid |
Endrick | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 82' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Modric |
| 90' |
Real Madrid |
Endrick | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isco AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.52 |
| Johnny Cardoso DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Adrián GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 0.58 |
| Youssouf Sabaly DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.53 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Ezequiel Ávila Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aitor Ruibal Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cédric Bakambu Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Natan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrygo FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Lucas Vázquez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Vinícius Júnior FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.85 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.82 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Ferland Mendy DL | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Brahim Diaz MC | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.11 | 0.75 |
| David Alaba DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Arda Güler Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Endrick Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Fran García Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |