Real Betis v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 8
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.37
Goals − xG
-1.05 – +0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
38.6%
Draw
25.4%
Villarreal win
36.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.58–1.46 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 2.05 xGVillarreal 1.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 12' |
Real Betis |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 14' |
Real Betis |
Diego Llorente | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Isco |
| 16' |
Real Betis |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 16' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 25' |
 Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Villarreal |
Thierno Barry | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Villarreal |
Thierno Barry | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Ayoze Pérez |
| 30' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isco |
| 31' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.59 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 39' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kiko Femenía |
| 42' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Daniel Parejo |
| 49' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 49' |
Villarreal |
Daniel Parejo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Yeremi Pino |
| 50' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 52' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Isco |
| 56' |
Real Betis |
Johnny Cardoso | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Villarreal |
Alfonso | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ayoze Pérez |
| 63' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Isco |
| 71' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 74' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 75' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 82' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | William Carvalho |
| 86' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 86' |
Real Betis |
Romain Perraud | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 87' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Real Betis |
Romain Perraud | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Isco |
| 92' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isco AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.69 | 0.25 | 1.60 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.70 | 1.45 |
| Aitor Ruibal DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 1.18 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Adrián GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Pablo Fornals DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.87 |
| Johnny Cardoso DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.05 | 0.79 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Natan Sub | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Cédric Bakambu Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Giovani Lo Celso Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| Sergi Altimira Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| William Carvalho Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.58 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thierno Barry FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Sergi Cardona DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Foyth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.86 |
| Logan Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Ayoze Pérez FW | 82 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.86 | 0.21 | 1.00 |
| Daniel Parejo MC | 82 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.30 | 0.82 |
| Alfonso ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Yeremi Pino MR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.00 |
| Nicolas Pepe Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Suárez Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnau Solà Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Willy Kambwala Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Bailly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |