Real Madrid v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 7 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 7
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 3
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.72 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-2.42 – +0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
68.7%
Draw
17.5%
Celta Vigo win
13.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWLDWDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 10.1 xG
conceded 11
from 18.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.32–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.60–1.11 | 2-1 9% | 72% | 62% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 2.42 xGCelta Vigo 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Zaragoza |
| 15' |
 Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 15' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 22' |
Celta Vigo |
Javier Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Miguel Román |
| 28' |
Real Madrid |
Raúl | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 30' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 31' |
Real Madrid |
Antonio Rüdiger | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 33' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Raúl |
| 33' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 37' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 39' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 40' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Borja Iglesias |
| 45' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 48' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Zaragoza |
| 55' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 67' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 67' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 73' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 76' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Rodrygo |
| 86' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 86' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 92' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.98 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Iago Aspas |
| 94' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Javier Rodríguez |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.46 |
| Borja Iglesias FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| Carl Starfelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Sergio Carreira DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel Román MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.62 |
| Óscar Mingueza DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.62 |
| Bryan Zaragoza AMC | 74 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Pablo Durán AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Williot Swedberg Sub | 41 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.16 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Javier Rueda Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Ferrán Jutglà Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fran Beltrán Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.98 | 0.99 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 0.91 |
| Vinícius Júnior FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Federico Valverde MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.66 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.04 | 0.90 | 1.07 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Álvaro Fernández DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Arda Güler MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 0.87 |
| Antonio Rüdiger Sub | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Fran García DL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Raúl DR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Rodrygo Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Eder Militão DC | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.45 |