Real Madrid v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 10
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
5 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.90 – 0.79
Goals − xG
+2.25 – -0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
76.0%
Draw
15.6%
Elche win
8.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.63–0.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.67–0.93 | 3-0 8% | 84% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 1.75 xGElche 1.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 34' |
Real Madrid |
Antonio Rüdiger | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 38' |
Real Madrid |
Antonio Rüdiger | 0.47 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 38' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fran García |
| 47' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
 Elche |
Lucas Cepeda | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martim Neto |
| 50' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Carvajal |
| 52' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Elche |
Federico Redondo | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martim Neto |
| 62' |
Elche |
Lucas Cepeda | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 65' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.35 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Daniel Yáñez |
| 67' |
Real Madrid |
Daniel Carvajal | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Real Madrid |
Manuel Ángel | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 73' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Elche |
Grady Diangana | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Real Madrid |
Fran García | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Yáñez |
| 78' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 80' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Grady Diangana |
| 82' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Real Madrid |
Manuel Ángel | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 86' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | César Palacios |
| 88' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 93' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.62 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Rafa Mir |
| 93' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Daniel Carvajal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Fran García DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Eduardo Camavinga ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Pitarch MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Brahim Diaz FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Federico Valverde MR | 63 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Vinícius Júnior FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Arda Güler Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| Daniel Yáñez Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.05 |
| Diego Aguado Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Manuel Ángel Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| César Palacios Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Silva FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| German Valera DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| David Affengruber DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Martim Neto FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| Federico Redondo MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lucas Cepeda MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Leo Petrot DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Buba Sangaré DR | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafa Mir Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.62 | 0.07 |
| Josan Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marc Aguado Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Grady Diangana Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| Pedro Bigas Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |