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Real Madrid v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 September 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

Real Madrid
4–1
4.89 – 0.32 xG
Espanyol
Shots
32 – 10
On target
14 – 1
Shots in box
21 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
1.97 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.90 – +0.68
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.42.74.15.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Daniel Carvajal 57' — goalRodrygo 74' — goalVinícius Júnior 77' — goalKylian Mbappe-Lottin 89' — goal
Real Madrid 4.90 xGEspanyol 0.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Eder Militão 5' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Eder Militão 10' — Missed Shot (0.19 xG, From Corner)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 10' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Luka Modric 12' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Arda Güler 13' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Fran García 18' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 20' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Arda Güler 22' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 25' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 27' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Eder Militão 29' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Rodrygo 32' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jude Bellingham 36' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Javi Puado 37' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Javi Puado 39' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jude Bellingham 42' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jofre Carreras 44' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alex Kral 45' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Tejero 45' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 45' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jofre Carreras 46' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Carlos Romero 47' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jude Bellingham 49' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Thibaut Courtois 53' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Vinícius Júnior 55' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Daniel Carvajal 57' — Goal (0.93 xG, From Corner)Federico Valverde 57' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Alex Kral 60' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Rodrygo 63' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jude Bellingham 65' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jofre Carreras 67' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 70' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 70' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Fran García 72' — Blocked Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Fran García 72' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 72' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Luka Modric 72' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rodrygo 74' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Vinícius Júnior 77' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)Leandro Cabrera 82' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 89' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Endrick 92' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Real Madrid attacking right Espanyol attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Real Madrid Eder Militão 0.04 From Corner — Blocked Shot Luka Modric
10' Real Madrid Eder Militão 0.19 From Corner — Missed Shot Luka Modric
10' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Arda Güler
12' Real Madrid Luka Modric 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Arda Güler
13' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jude Bellingham
18' Real Madrid Fran García 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Arda Güler
20' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Rodrygo
22' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Luka Modric
25' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jude Bellingham
27' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Luka Modric
29' Real Madrid Eder Militão 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Luka Modric
32' Real Madrid Rodrygo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kylian Mbappe-Lottin
36' Real Madrid Jude Bellingham 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Arda Güler
37' Espanyol Javi Puado 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
39' Espanyol Javi Puado 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alex Kral
42' Real Madrid Jude Bellingham 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Fran García
44' Espanyol Jofre Carreras 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Pol Lozano
45' Espanyol Alex Kral 0.01 From Corner — Blocked Shot Carlos Romero
45' Espanyol Tejero 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
45' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
46' Espanyol Jofre Carreras 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tejero
47' Espanyol Carlos Romero 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
49' Real Madrid Jude Bellingham 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Rodrygo
53' Real Madrid Thibaut Courtois 0.00 Open Play Left Foot Own Goal —
55' Real Madrid Vinícius Júnior 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Luka Modric
57' Real Madrid Daniel Carvajal 0.93 From Corner Right Foot Goal —
57' Real Madrid Federico Valverde 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Kylian Mbappe-Lottin
60' Espanyol Alex Kral 0.07 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Leandro Cabrera
63' Real Madrid Rodrygo 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kylian Mbappe-Lottin
65' Real Madrid Jude Bellingham 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Kylian Mbappe-Lottin
67' Espanyol Jofre Carreras 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Alejo Véliz
70' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Vázquez
70' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lucas Vázquez
72' Real Madrid Fran García 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Vázquez
72' Real Madrid Fran García 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Kylian Mbappe-Lottin
72' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jude Bellingham
72' Real Madrid Luka Modric 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
74' Real Madrid Rodrygo 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Goal Vinícius Júnior
77' Real Madrid Vinícius Júnior 0.35 Open Play Left Foot Goal Kylian Mbappe-Lottin
82' Espanyol Leandro Cabrera 0.05 From Corner — Blocked Shot Irvin Cardona
89' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.74 Right Foot Goal —
92' Real Madrid Endrick 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Kylian Mbappe-Lottin

Players

Real Madrid

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW 90 1 1 9 7 1.98 0.69 2.40
Fran García DL 90 0 0 3 1 0.38 0.02 1.42
Eder Militão DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.27 0.00 0.38
Luka Modric MC 90 0 0 2 6 0.07 0.74 1.26
Federico Valverde MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 1.04
Thibaut Courtois GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.79
Aurelien Tchouameni DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.97
Rodrygo FWL 84 1 0 3 2 0.51 0.13 1.53
Jude Bellingham MC 84 0 0 4 3 0.17 0.20 1.38
Daniel Carvajal DR 59 1 0 1 0 0.93 0.00 0.27
Arda Güler FWR 55 0 0 2 4 0.13 0.47 0.62
Vinícius Júnior Sub 35 1 1 2 1 0.37 0.40 0.83
Lucas Vázquez Sub 31 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.47 0.94
Endrick Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Antonio Rüdiger Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Espanyol

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Alex Kral MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.02 0.02
Leandro Cabrera DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.07 0.00
Carlos Romero DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.07
Marash Kumbulla DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Omar El Hilali DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Joan García GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Javi Puado FW 81 0 0 2 0 0.03 0.00 0.06
Jofre Carreras MC 76 0 0 3 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Tejero DR 76 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.03 0.03
Pol Lozano MC 67 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Walid Cheddira FW 46 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alejo Véliz Sub 44 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
José Gragera Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Irvin Cardona Sub 14 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.00
Álvaro Aguado Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pere Milla Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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