Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 11
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 4
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.10 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.33 – -0.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
75.4%
Draw
16.6%
Rayo Vallecano win
8.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.36–0.65 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.83–1.07 | 2-1 9% | 75% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 2.33 xGRayo Vallecano 1.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 14' |
 Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Brahim Diaz |
| 18' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 18' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 32' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 34' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 36' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 37' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 45' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pathé Ciss |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 48' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álvaro García |
| 50' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 63' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 67' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Arda Güler |
| 73' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Valentín |
| 76' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Valentín | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Real Madrid |
Dani Ceballos | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrygo |
| 84' |
Real Madrid |
Eduardo Camavinga | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Dani Ceballos |
| 85' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 85' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 94' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dani Ceballos |
| 99' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 101' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Valverde |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.36 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Vinícius Júnior FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.10 | 1.03 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.30 |
| Eduardo Camavinga DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Federico Valverde DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 81 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Arda Güler MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| Franco Mastantuono MR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Raúl DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dani Ceballos Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrygo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| David Alaba Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jude Bellingham ML | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.92 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ilias Akhomach AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Isi Palazón AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.83 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| Álvaro García AML | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.54 |
| Jorge De Frutos FW | 59 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Gerard Gumbau DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Óscar Valentín Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Alfonso Espino Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Martín Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luiz Felipe Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |