Real Madrid v RB Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 21 October 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Real Madrid

15:00

RB Leipzig

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,101h before kick-off

Real Madrid win

79.9%

model 79.9%

Draw

12.8%

model 12.1%

RB Leipzig win

7.3%

model 8.0%

80137

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (340 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 9.7%
3-0 9.5%
2-1 8.3%
3-1 8.1%
4-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	73.2%	Under 2.5	26.8%
BTTS yes	54.2%	BTTS no	45.8%
Real Madrid 1+	94.8%	Real Madrid 2+	79.4%
RB Leipzig 1+	57.4%	RB Leipzig 2+	21.1%

Expected goals 2.95 – 0.85. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

67/100

Data quality

45/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Real Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1772 Elo against 1453.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
At home Real Madrid average 2.38 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Real Madrid have scored 2.80 a match from 2.10 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
RB Leipzig have only 8 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Real Madrid have an estimated 79.9% win probability, against 12.8% for the draw and 7.3% for RB Leipzig. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.95 for Real Madrid and 0.85 for RB Leipzig.

Why Real Madrid

Real Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1772 Elo against 1453. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. At home Real Madrid average 2.38 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 12.8%. Draws run at 16% in this competition.

Why RB Leipzig can win

Nothing in the data singles out RB Leipzig.

Key players

Real Madrid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kylian Mbappe-Lottin (1.02), Vinícius Júnior (0.59), Jude Bellingham (0.41).

Availability

27% of Real Madrid's last eleven are new to the club this window. No lineup on record for RB Leipzig, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Madrid: 61% possession, 18.6 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.55 xG a match from set pieces. RB Leipzig: 49% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Real Madrid's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Real Madrid are the model's most likely outcome at 79.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 9.7%. Confidence 67/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWWWWWWL last 10 scored 20 from 21.0 xG conceded 8 from 10.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	79129	3.05–0.96	3-0 9%	76%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to win	79.1%	78.4%	50.5%	1.55×	1.28
Draw	12.1%	13.3%	16.1%	0.83×	7.52
RB Leipzig to win	8.8%	8.3%	33.7%	0.25×	12.10

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid & both teams score	42.4%	40.1%	25.8%	1.55×	2.49
Real Madrid & not both score	36.7%	33.2%	25.0%	1.33×	3.02
Draw & both teams score	10.5%	13.3%	11.1%	1.20×	7.55
RB Leipzig & both teams score	5.7%	8.4%	18.4%	0.45×	11.94
RB Leipzig & not both score	3.1%	4.9%	15.5%	0.31×	20.59
Draw & not both score	1.6%	4.8%	5.3%	0.92×	20.64

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid & over 1.5	73.3%	67.3%	42.4%	1.59×	1.49
Real Madrid & over 2.5	64.9%	54.8%	36.1%	1.52×	1.82
Real Madrid & over 3.5	48.2%	45.2%	23.9%	1.89×	2.21
Real Madrid & under 3.5	30.9%	30.9%	26.8%	1.15×	3.24
Real Madrid & under 2.5	14.2%	12.9%	14.7%	0.87×	7.77
Draw & over 1.5	10.5%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	6.7%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.70
Draw & under 3.5	6.7%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.70
RB Leipzig & over 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	28.2%	0.28×	12.70
RB Leipzig & over 2.5	6.0%	7.9%	23.9%	0.33×	12.70
Real Madrid & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	5.5%	1.43×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	5.5%	1.43×	12.70
RB Leipzig & under 3.5	5.6%	7.9%	19.2%	0.41×	12.70
RB Leipzig & over 3.5	3.2%	4.8%	14.7%	0.32×	20.94
RB Leipzig & under 2.5	2.8%	4.8%	10.0%	0.48×	20.94
RB Leipzig & under 1.5	2.0%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.95
Draw & under 1.5	1.6%	4.8%	5.3%	0.91×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (1UP)	87.5%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
RB Leipzig (1UP)	27.7%	26.9%	—	—	3.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (2UP)	79.1%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
RB Leipzig (2UP)	8.8%	8.9%	—	—	11.18

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to win 2nd half	65.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
2nd half drawn	22.4%	23.1%	—	—	4.33
RB Leipzig to win 2nd half	11.9%	12.2%	—	—	8.22

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (+0.5)	91.2%	92.1%	66.3%	1.39×	1.09
Real Madrid (-0.5)	79.1%	78.4%	50.5%	1.55×	1.28
RB Leipzig (+2.5)	60.3%	62.9%	81.6%	0.77×	1.59
Real Madrid (-1.5)	60.1%	62.9%	31.6%	1.99×	1.59
RB Leipzig (+1.5)	39.9%	37.1%	68.4%	0.54×	2.70
Real Madrid (-2.5)	39.7%	37.1%	18.4%	2.01×	2.70
RB Leipzig (+0.5)	20.9%	21.6%	49.5%	0.44×	4.64
RB Leipzig (-0.5)	8.8%	7.9%	33.7%	0.24×	12.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig to concede	95.3%	96.0%	79.5%	1.21×	1.04
RB Leipzig clean sheet	4.7%	4.0%	20.5%	0.19×	25.21

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig to concede in 1st half	73.1%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
RB Leipzig clean sheet in 1st half	26.9%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig under 3.5 goals	98.3%	97.5%	92.1%	1.06×	1.03
RB Leipzig under 2.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	78.9%	1.17×	1.08
RB Leipzig under 1.5 goals	75.0%	76.2%	59.7%	1.28×	1.31
RB Leipzig over 0.5 goals	61.7%	63.0%	70.0%	0.90×	1.59
RB Leipzig under 0.5 goals	38.3%	37.0%	30.0%	1.24×	2.70
RB Leipzig over 1.5 goals	25.0%	23.8%	40.3%	0.59×	4.20
RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	21.1%	0.36×	13.04
RB Leipzig over 3.5 goals	1.7%	2.5%	7.9%	0.31×	40.79

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig under 1.5 in 1st half	94.3%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
RB Leipzig under 0.5 in 1st half	68.1%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
RB Leipzig over 0.5 in 1st half	31.9%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
RB Leipzig over 1.5 in 1st half	5.7%	5.8%	—	—	17.38

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (away no bet)	86.7%	84.5%	75.9%	1.11×	1.18
Draw (away no bet)	13.3%	15.5%	24.1%	0.64×	6.45

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig even goals	57.3%	56.9%	54.5%	1.04×	1.76
RB Leipzig odd goals	42.7%	43.1%	45.5%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	66.0%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Both halves over 1.5 goals	34.0%	28.8%	—	—	3.47

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	83.7%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Both halves under 1.5 goals	16.3%	22.0%	—	—	4.54

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	80.1%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Real Madrid to score 2+ in a row	74.3%	72.2%	—	—	1.39
Either team to score 3+ in a row	48.7%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Real Madrid to score 3+ in a row	46.7%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
RB Leipzig to score 2+ in a row	14.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.18
RB Leipzig to score 3+ in a row	2.5%	2.6%	—	—	39.06

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	19.4%	13.8%	11.3%	1.22×	7.25
2-0	8.4%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
3-0	8.6%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.48
2-1	8.1%	7.4%	7.4%	1.01×	13.48
3-1	8.3%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.48
4-0	6.6%	7.4%	3.4%	2.17×	13.48
1-0	5.7%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.48
1-1	5.1%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.48
4-1	6.3%	7.4%	3.2%	2.35×	13.48
0-0	1.6%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.48
0-1	2.0%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.48
0-2	0.8%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.49
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	3.9%	0.43×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.49
1-2	2.6%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.48
1-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.49
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.49
2-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.9%	0.43×	58.47
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.49
3-2	4.0%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.47
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.48
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.25×	58.49
4-2	3.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.47
4-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.48
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.25×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid leading at HT (DNB)	84.8%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
RB Leipzig leading at HT (DNB)	15.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid or draw (1X)	91.2%	91.7%	66.3%	1.38×	1.09
Real Madrid or RB Leipzig (12)	87.9%	86.7%	83.9%	1.03×	1.15
RB Leipzig or draw (X2)	20.9%	21.6%	49.5%	0.44×	4.63

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid or draw at HT	89.2%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Real Madrid or RB Leipzig at HT	71.3%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
RB Leipzig or draw at HT	39.6%	31.5%	—	—	3.18

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid or draw (1UP)	91.2%	93.2%	—	—	1.07
RB Leipzig or draw (1UP)	27.7%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid or draw in 2nd half	88.1%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Real Madrid or RB Leipzig in 2nd half	77.6%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
RB Leipzig or draw in 2nd half	34.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	55.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
A half drawn	45.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (DNB)	90.0%	87.4%	60.0%	1.46×	1.15
RB Leipzig (DNB)	10.0%	12.6%	40.0%	0.32×	7.92

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to score first	74.8%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
RB Leipzig to score first	23.6%	23.1%	—	—	4.34
No goal scored	1.6%	4.2%	—	—	23.68

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.6%	54.9%	54.7%	1.00×	1.82
Not both teams to score	41.4%	45.1%	45.3%	1.00×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	53.5%	47.1%	49.2%	0.96×	2.12
Not both score & over 2.5	22.8%	27.7%	16.1%	1.73×	3.61
Not both score & under 2.5	18.6%	21.7%	29.5%	0.74×	4.60
Both score & under 2.5	5.1%	8.4%	5.8%	1.44×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.8%	80.0%	81.1%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.2%	20.0%	18.9%	1.06×	5.00

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.0%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.0%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.1%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Both score 2nd half only	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	14.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.26
Both score in both halves	8.4%	6.8%	—	—	14.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.7%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.3%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	73.5%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
A half without a goal	26.5%	26.8%	—	—	3.73

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	45.8%	47.4%	37.1%	1.28×	2.11
2-3 goals	33.9%	30.8%	37.6%	0.82×	3.25
7+ goals	11.0%	16.9%	6.8%	2.47×	5.92
0-1 goals	9.3%	7.6%	18.9%	0.40×	13.12

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig to score exactly 0	38.3%	36.0%	30.0%	1.20×	2.78
RB Leipzig to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	30.0%	1.20×	2.78
RB Leipzig to score exactly 2	17.7%	19.6%	19.5%	1.00×	5.11
RB Leipzig to score 3+	7.3%	8.5%	21.1%	0.40×	11.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to score 3+	58.8%	45.1%	31.1%	1.45×	2.22
Real Madrid to score exactly 2	22.1%	23.2%	23.4%	0.99×	4.30
Real Madrid to score exactly 1	14.5%	14.3%	25.5%	0.56×	6.97
Real Madrid to score exactly 0	4.7%	6.2%	20.5%	0.30×	16.11

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid leading at HT	60.4%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Draw at HT	28.7%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
RB Leipzig leading at HT	10.8%	11.6%	—	—	8.61

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid -1: 1	60.1%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Real Madrid -1: 2	20.9%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Real Madrid -1: X	18.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (0:1)	60.1%	61.4%	31.6%	1.94×	1.63
RB Leipzig (0:1)	20.9%	24.3%	49.5%	0.49×	4.12
Draw (0:1)	18.9%	17.8%	19.2%	0.93×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig (0:2)	39.9%	39.2%	68.4%	0.57×	2.55
Real Madrid (0:2)	39.7%	39.2%	18.4%	2.13×	2.55
Draw (0:2)	20.4%	20.3%	13.4%	1.51×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig (0:3)	60.3%	65.2%	81.6%	0.80×	1.54
Real Madrid (0:3)	22.7%	19.3%	9.5%	2.04×	5.18
Draw (0:3)	17.1%	16.1%	9.2%	1.74×	6.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig (0:4)	77.3%	81.2%	90.5%	0.90×	1.23
Draw (0:4)	11.5%	9.5%	5.8%	1.63×	10.58
Real Madrid (0:4)	11.2%	9.4%	3.9%	2.39×	10.61

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (1:0)	91.2%	92.6%	66.3%	1.40×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	6.1%	6.9%	16.6%	0.42×	14.46
RB Leipzig (1:0)	2.7%	3.2%	17.4%	0.18×	31.68

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (2:0)	97.3%	96.9%	82.6%	1.17×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.0%	2.3%	7.9%	0.29×	44.24
RB Leipzig (2:0)	0.7%	2.3%	9.7%	0.23×	44.33

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.0%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	28.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	19.6%	19.4%	—	—	5.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to concede	61.7%	63.4%	70.0%	0.91×	1.58
Real Madrid clean sheet	38.3%	36.6%	30.0%	1.22×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid clean sheet in 1st half	68.1%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Real Madrid to concede in 1st half	31.9%	31.3%	—	—	3.19

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid over 0.5 goals	95.3%	96.4%	79.5%	1.21×	1.04
Real Madrid over 1.5 goals	80.8%	82.1%	54.2%	1.51×	1.22
Real Madrid under 3.5 goals	63.7%	63.5%	83.9%	0.76×	1.58
Real Madrid over 2.5 goals	58.8%	58.8%	31.1%	1.89×	1.70
Real Madrid under 2.5 goals	41.2%	41.2%	68.9%	0.60×	2.43
Real Madrid over 3.5 goals	36.3%	36.5%	16.1%	2.27×	2.74
Real Madrid under 1.5 goals	19.2%	17.9%	45.8%	0.39×	5.59
Real Madrid under 0.5 goals	4.7%	3.6%	20.5%	0.18×	27.40

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid over 0.5 in 1st half	73.1%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Real Madrid under 1.5 in 1st half	62.3%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Real Madrid over 1.5 in 1st half	37.7%	35.3%	—	—	2.83
Real Madrid under 0.5 in 1st half	26.9%	20.1%	—	—	4.99

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	58.0%	56.7%	32.3%	1.76×	1.76
RB Leipzig (home no bet)	42.0%	43.3%	67.7%	0.64×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid even goals	50.1%	50.6%	53.2%	0.95×	1.98
Real Madrid odd goals	49.9%	49.4%	46.8%	1.05×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	24.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-0	18.3%	18.7%	—	—	5.33
HT 2-0	15.8%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
Any other HT score	15.2%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-1	9.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 0-1	7.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 2-1	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.48
HT 0-2	1.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.51
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.52

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid at HT / Real Madrid at FT	56.3%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Draw at HT / Real Madrid at FT	19.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	6.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.70
RB Leipzig at HT / RB Leipzig at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
RB Leipzig at HT / Real Madrid at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Draw at HT / RB Leipzig at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Real Madrid at HT / Draw at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
RB Leipzig at HT / Draw at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Real Madrid at HT / RB Leipzig at FT	0.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to score last	74.8%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
RB Leipzig to score last	23.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
No goal scored	1.6%	4.2%	—	—	23.68

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	98.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Real Madrid to lead by 1 at any time	87.5%	90.6%	—	—	1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	72.9%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Real Madrid to lead by 2 at any time	66.9%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	45.5%	44.0%	—	—	2.28
Real Madrid to lead by 3 at any time	44.1%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
RB Leipzig to lead by 1 at any time	27.7%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
RB Leipzig to lead by 2 at any time	6.6%	6.6%	—	—	15.10
RB Leipzig to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	—	—	62.95

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	79.7%	78.6%	74.5%	1.06×	1.27
1-5 goals	76.9%	78.6%	81.3%	0.97×	1.27
2-5 goals	69.2%	69.0%	67.6%	1.02×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.3%	68.9%	58.4%	1.18×	1.45
1-4 goals	61.2%	63.4%	67.6%	0.94×	1.58
3-5 goals	54.8%	53.2%	51.6%	1.03×	1.88
2-4 goals	53.5%	53.2%	53.9%	0.99×	1.88
4-6 goals	45.8%	48.7%	37.1%	1.31×	2.06
1-3 goals	41.6%	43.6%	51.3%	0.85×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.1%	39.2%	37.9%	1.03×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.3%	39.1%	30.3%	1.29×	2.56
2-3 goals	33.9%	35.4%	37.6%	0.94×	2.83
5-6 goals	26.2%	30.2%	20.8%	1.45×	3.31
1-2 goals	22.1%	24.5%	30.0%	0.82×	4.09
7+ goals	11.0%	14.9%	6.8%	2.17×	6.73

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid never behind	70.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
RB Leipzig never behind	10.9%	12.5%	—	—	8.01

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.6%	50.8%	45.8%	1.11×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.4%	49.2%	54.2%	0.91×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.6%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.4%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.6%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	98.4%	95.5%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	90.7%	92.3%	81.1%	1.14×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	78.5%	77.4%	86.3%	0.90×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	76.3%	77.3%	65.0%	1.19×	1.29
Under 4.5 goals	62.8%	61.8%	72.6%	0.85×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	56.8%	58.8%	43.7%	1.35×	1.70
Under 3.5 goals	43.2%	41.2%	56.3%	0.73×	2.43
Over 4.5 goals	37.2%	38.2%	27.4%	1.40×	2.62
Under 2.5 goals	23.7%	22.7%	35.0%	0.65×	4.41
Over 5.5 goals	21.5%	22.6%	13.7%	1.66×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	9.3%	7.7%	18.9%	0.41×	12.91
Under 0.5 goals	1.6%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.24

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	89.2%	86.8%	77.4%	1.12×	1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	87.7%	86.7%	92.7%	0.94×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	74.5%	72.6%	84.1%	0.86×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.6%	72.6%	55.5%	1.31×	1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	53.7%	51.8%	67.3%	0.77×	1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	46.3%	48.2%	32.7%	1.47×	2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.4%	27.4%	44.5%	0.62×	3.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	25.5%	27.4%	15.9%	1.73×	3.65
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	12.3%	13.3%	7.3%	1.80×	7.55
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	10.8%	13.2%	22.6%	0.59×	7.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	81.7%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	75.8%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Over 1.5 in 1st half	50.5%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Under 1.5 in 1st half	49.5%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Over 2.5 in 1st half	24.2%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Under 0.5 in 1st half	18.3%	13.8%	—	—	7.24

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.2%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	67.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	59.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	40.7%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	32.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.8%	11.4%	—	—	8.76

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig not to score in both halves	86.0%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Real Madrid to score in both halves	60.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Real Madrid not to score in both halves	39.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
RB Leipzig to score in both halves	14.0%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.6%	58.4%	54.7%	1.07×	1.71
Only Real Madrid scores	36.7%	39.8%	25.0%	1.59×	2.51
Only RB Leipzig scores	3.1%	4.6%	15.5%	0.29×	21.86
Neither team scores	1.6%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	21.5%	22.6%	13.7%	1.65×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	19.5%	17.4%	21.6%	0.81×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	19.6%	17.4%	16.6%	1.05×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	15.7%	17.4%	13.9%	1.25×	5.74
Exactly 2 goals	14.4%	12.1%	16.3%	0.74×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	7.7%	7.6%	13.9%	0.55×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	1.6%	4.4%	5.3%	0.84×	22.69

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	67.2%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
1 goal in 2nd half	23.0%	23.1%	—	—	4.32
No goals in 2nd half	9.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.21

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig not to win both halves	98.7%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Real Madrid not to win both halves	60.4%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Real Madrid to win both halves	39.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
RB Leipzig to win both halves	1.3%	2.7%	—	—	36.75

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to win either half	86.5%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
RB Leipzig to win neither half	78.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
RB Leipzig to win either half	21.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Real Madrid to win neither half	13.5%	8.2%	—	—	12.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig not to win to nil	96.9%	96.2%	84.5%	1.14×	1.04
Real Madrid not to win to nil	63.3%	66.8%	75.0%	0.89×	1.50
Real Madrid to win to nil	36.7%	33.2%	25.0%	1.33×	3.01
RB Leipzig to win to nil	3.1%	3.8%	15.5%	0.25×	26.07

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid by 3+	39.7%	35.0%	18.4%	1.90×	2.85
Real Madrid by 2	20.4%	24.1%	13.4%	1.80×	4.14
Real Madrid by 1	18.9%	16.9%	19.2%	0.88×	5.91
Draw	12.1%	11.8%	16.1%	0.74×	8.48
RB Leipzig by 1	6.1%	7.3%	16.6%	0.44×	13.79
RB Leipzig by 2	2.0%	2.7%	7.9%	0.34×	37.02
RB Leipzig by 3+	0.7%	2.7%	9.7%	0.28×	37.06