Real Oviedo v Burgos — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 16.5%
- 0-0 13.9%
- 1-1 12.8%
- 0-1 11.9%
- 2-0 9.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 30.9% | Under 2.5 | 69.1% |
| BTTS yes | 37.4% | BTTS no | 62.6% |
| Real Oviedo 1+ | 67.9% | Real Oviedo 2+ | 31.4% |
| Burgos 1+ | 55.6% | Burgos 2+ | 19.6% |
Expected goals 1.14 – 0.81. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Real Oviedo.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Real Oviedo have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 28.2% for the draw and 27.5% for Burgos. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.14 for Real Oviedo and 0.81 for Burgos.
Why Real Oviedo
Nothing in the data singles out Real Oviedo.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.2%. A combined 1.95 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Burgos can win
Burgos carry the stronger rating, 1583 Elo against 1407. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
Real Oviedo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Federico Viñas (0.38), Ilyas Chaira (0.23), Thiago Fernández (0.22).
Availability
2 of Real Oviedo's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Burgos, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Real Oviedo: 56% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces. Burgos: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Real Oviedo are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.5%. Confidence 57/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.14–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.03–0.68 | 1-0 19% | 24% | 31% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo to win | 43.4% | 43.0% | 45.4% | 0.95× | 2.32 |
| Draw | 32.6% | 30.4% | 26.6% | 1.14× | 3.29 |
| Burgos to win | 24.1% | 24.5% | 28.1% | 0.87× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo & not both score | 32.9% | 29.7% | 23.7% | 1.26× | 3.37 |
| Draw & not both score | 17.9% | 17.9% | 9.1% | 1.96× | 5.58 |
| Burgos & not both score | 18.0% | 17.9% | 13.5% | 1.33× | 5.58 |
| Draw & both teams score | 14.7% | 13.3% | 17.6% | 0.76× | 7.54 |
| Real Oviedo & both teams score | 10.5% | 13.3% | 21.9% | 0.61× | 7.55 |
| Burgos & both teams score | 6.1% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 0.57× | 11.94 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo & under 3.5 | 38.4% | 34.9% | 32.3% | 1.08× | 2.87 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 30.2% | 30.9% | 20.3% | 1.52× | 3.24 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 30.2% | 30.9% | 20.3% | 1.52× | 3.24 |
| Real Oviedo & under 2.5 | 28.6% | 26.0% | 19.3% | 1.35× | 3.84 |
| Real Oviedo & over 1.5 | 24.4% | 21.7% | 32.5% | 0.67× | 4.62 |
| Burgos & under 3.5 | 22.1% | 21.7% | 19.7% | 1.10× | 4.62 |
| Real Oviedo & under 1.5 | 19.0% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 1.38× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 17.9% | 18.0% | 9.1% | 1.97× | 5.56 |
| Burgos & under 2.5 | 16.9% | 18.0% | 11.6% | 1.56× | 5.56 |
| Real Oviedo & over 2.5 | 14.8% | 12.9% | 26.2% | 0.49× | 7.77 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 14.7% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 0.73× | 7.77 |
| Burgos & under 1.5 | 12.7% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 1.47× | 7.77 |
| Burgos & over 1.5 | 11.4% | 12.9% | 19.5% | 0.66× | 7.77 |
| Burgos & over 2.5 | 7.2% | 7.9% | 16.6% | 0.47× | 12.70 |
| Real Oviedo & over 3.5 | 5.0% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 0.59× | 12.70 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 2.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 0.74× | 20.94 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 2.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 0.74× | 20.94 |
| Burgos & over 3.5 | 2.0% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 0.56× | 20.95 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo (1UP) | 53.2% | 52.7% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Burgos (1UP) | 35.2% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo (2UP) | 43.4% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Burgos (2UP) | 24.1% | 23.8% | — | — | 4.20 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 46.2% | 45.4% | — | — | 2.21 |
| Real Oviedo to win 2nd half | 32.9% | 34.5% | — | — | 2.90 |
| Burgos to win 2nd half | 20.9% | 23.0% | — | — | 4.34 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (+2.5) | 94.9% | 92.1% | 92.3% | 1.00× | 1.09 |
| Burgos (+1.5) | 82.9% | 82.4% | 80.4% | 1.02× | 1.21 |
| Real Oviedo (+0.5) | 75.9% | 78.4% | 71.9% | 1.09× | 1.28 |
| Burgos (+0.5) | 56.6% | 57.0% | 54.6% | 1.04× | 1.75 |
| Real Oviedo (-0.5) | 43.4% | 43.0% | 45.4% | 0.95× | 2.33 |
| Burgos (-0.5) | 24.1% | 21.6% | 28.1% | 0.77× | 4.64 |
| Real Oviedo (-1.5) | 17.1% | 17.6% | 19.6% | 0.90× | 5.69 |
| Real Oviedo (-2.5) | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 1.03× | 12.66 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos to concede | 64.2% | 67.3% | 77.5% | 0.87× | 1.49 |
| Burgos clean sheet | 35.8% | 32.7% | 22.5% | 1.45× | 3.06 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos clean sheet in 1st half | 64.3% | 65.0% | — | — | 1.54 |
| Burgos to concede in 1st half | 35.7% | 35.0% | — | — | 2.86 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos under 6.5 corners | 90.0% | 84.9% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Burgos under 5.5 corners | 82.3% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Burgos under 4.5 corners | 70.6% | 72.3% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Burgos over 2.5 corners | 64.2% | 61.4% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Burgos under 3.5 corners | 54.6% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Burgos over 3.5 corners | 45.4% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Burgos under 2.5 corners | 35.8% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Burgos over 4.5 corners | 29.4% | 27.7% | — | — | 3.61 |
| Burgos over 5.5 corners | 17.7% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
| Burgos over 6.5 corners | 10.0% | 15.1% | — | — | 6.64 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos under 3.5 goals | 99.5% | 97.6% | 97.0% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Burgos under 2.5 goals | 96.8% | 97.5% | 89.2% | 1.09× | 1.03 |
| Burgos under 1.5 goals | 85.2% | 87.9% | 69.5% | 1.26× | 1.14 |
| Burgos under 0.5 goals | 50.8% | 53.7% | 32.7% | 1.64× | 1.86 |
| Burgos over 0.5 goals | 49.2% | 46.3% | 67.3% | 0.69× | 2.16 |
| Burgos over 1.5 goals | 14.8% | 12.1% | 30.5% | 0.40× | 8.24 |
| Burgos over 2.5 goals | 3.2% | 2.5% | 10.8% | 0.23× | 40.71 |
| Burgos over 3.5 goals | 0.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 0.80× | 40.86 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos under 1.5 in 1st half | 96.9% | 95.8% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Burgos under 0.5 in 1st half | 76.2% | 75.6% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Burgos over 0.5 in 1st half | 23.8% | 24.4% | — | — | 4.10 |
| Burgos over 1.5 in 1st half | 3.1% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.86 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo (away no bet) | 57.1% | 57.5% | 63.1% | 0.91× | 1.74 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 42.9% | 42.5% | 36.9% | 1.15× | 2.35 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos even goals | 62.9% | 59.1% | 54.7% | 1.08× | 1.69 |
| Burgos odd goals | 37.1% | 40.9% | 45.3% | 0.90× | 2.44 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 95.8% | 95.9% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 4.2% | 4.1% | — | — | 24.51 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 62.2% | 58.0% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 37.8% | 42.0% | — | — | 2.38 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 33.7% | 29.0% | — | — | 3.45 |
| Real Oviedo to score 2+ in a row | 23.6% | 19.6% | — | — | 5.11 |
| Burgos to score 2+ in a row | 11.6% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.23 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 8.5% | 5.7% | — | — | 17.60 |
| Real Oviedo to score 3+ in a row | 6.5% | 5.6% | — | — | 17.76 |
| Burgos to score 3+ in a row | 2.0% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.33 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo corners (+3.5) | 92.1% | 88.7% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Real Oviedo corners (+2.5) | 86.9% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Real Oviedo corners (+1.5) | 79.4% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Burgos corners (+3.5) | 75.3% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Burgos corners (+2.5) | 65.3% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Burgos corners (+1.5) | 53.9% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Real Oviedo corners (-1.5) | 46.1% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Real Oviedo corners (-2.5) | 34.7% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Real Oviedo corners (-3.5) | 24.8% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| Burgos corners (-1.5) | 20.6% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| Burgos corners (-2.5) | 13.1% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.32 |
| Burgos corners (-3.5) | 7.9% | 11.3% | — | — | 8.81 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 55.3% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.9% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| 12+ corners | 17.8% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.61 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 87.8% | 82.8% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 82.2% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 74.9% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 65.9% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 56.2% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 55.3% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 44.7% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 43.8% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 34.1% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 25.1% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 17.8% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.96 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 12.2% | 17.2% | — | — | 5.81 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 19.0% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 1.06× | 7.26 |
| 0-0 | 17.9% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 1.51× | 7.26 |
| 0-1 | 12.7% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 1.31× | 8.73 |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 1.02× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.16× | 13.48 |
| 2-1 | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 0.74× | 13.48 |
| 0-2 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.58× | 58.47 |
| 0-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.36× | 58.48 |
| 0-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.32× | 58.49 |
| 1-2 | 4.3% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 0.24× | 58.47 |
| 1-3 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.48× | 58.48 |
| 1-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.03× | 58.49 |
| 2-2 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 5.7% | 0.30× | 58.48 |
| 2-3 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.49 |
| 2-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.32× | 58.49 |
| 3-0 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.56× | 58.47 |
| 3-1 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 0.38× | 58.48 |
| 3-2 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.49 |
| 3-3 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.32× | 58.49 |
| 3-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.13× | 58.49 |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.48× | 58.49 |
| 4-1 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.90× | 58.49 |
| 4-2 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.48× | 58.49 |
| 4-3 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.42× | 58.49 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.13× | 58.49 |
| Any other score | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.49 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo leading at HT (DNB) | 64.0% | 66.1% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Burgos leading at HT (DNB) | 36.0% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.95 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo or draw (1X) | 75.9% | 75.5% | 71.9% | 1.05× | 1.32 |
| Real Oviedo or Burgos (12) | 67.4% | 69.6% | 73.4% | 0.95× | 1.44 |
| Burgos or draw (X2) | 56.6% | 57.0% | 54.6% | 1.04× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo or draw at HT | 83.8% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Burgos or draw at HT | 71.2% | 74.3% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Real Oviedo or Burgos at HT | 45.0% | 51.5% | — | — | 1.94 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo or draw (1UP) | 75.9% | 83.8% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Burgos or draw (1UP) | 56.6% | 62.7% | — | — | 1.60 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo or draw in 2nd half | 79.1% | 77.0% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Burgos or draw in 2nd half | 67.1% | 65.5% | — | — | 1.53 |
| Real Oviedo or Burgos in 2nd half | 53.8% | 54.6% | — | — | 1.83 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 76.1% | 76.7% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Neither half drawn | 23.9% | 23.3% | — | — | 4.29 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo (DNB) | 64.3% | 62.9% | 61.8% | 1.02× | 1.59 |
| Burgos (DNB) | 35.7% | 37.1% | 38.2% | 0.97× | 2.69 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo to score first | 49.5% | 45.6% | — | — | 2.19 |
| Burgos to score first | 32.7% | 27.2% | — | — | 3.68 |
| No goal scored | 17.9% | 18.1% | — | — | 5.52 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 68.8% | 58.2% | 46.1% | 1.26× | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 31.2% | 41.8% | 53.9% | 0.77× | 2.40 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 63.3% | 50.2% | 39.9% | 1.26× | 1.99 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 18.9% | 21.8% | 42.8% | 0.51× | 4.60 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 1.10× | 8.11 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 5.5% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 1.32× | 11.97 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 95.9% | 91.7% | 85.7% | 1.07× | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 4.1% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 0.58× | 12.07 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 85.3% | 85.7% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 14.7% | 14.3% | — | — | 6.98 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 78.2% | 76.2% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 13.4% | 10.8% | — | — | 9.29 |
| Both score 1st half only | 7.2% | 6.8% | — | — | 14.74 |
| Both score in both halves | 1.3% | 4.9% | — | — | 20.49 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 91.6% | 91.8% | — | — | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 8.4% | 8.2% | — | — | 12.18 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 68.1% | 66.9% | — | — | 1.50 |
| A goal in each half | 31.9% | 33.1% | — | — | 3.02 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 goals | 49.5% | 47.4% | 30.7% | 1.54× | 2.11 |
| 2-3 goals | 41.1% | 42.1% | 41.4% | 1.02× | 2.38 |
| 4-6 goals | 9.2% | 7.6% | 26.5% | 0.29× | 13.13 |
| 7+ goals | 0.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.16× | 54.79 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos to score exactly 0 | 50.8% | 47.2% | 32.7% | 1.44× | 2.12 |
| Burgos to score exactly 1 | 34.4% | 33.8% | 36.9% | 0.92× | 2.96 |
| Burgos to score exactly 2 | 11.7% | 12.8% | 19.8% | 0.65× | 7.81 |
| Burgos to score 3+ | 3.2% | 4.5% | 10.8% | 0.42× | 22.09 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo to score exactly 1 | 36.8% | 35.6% | 35.6% | 1.00× | 2.81 |
| Real Oviedo to score exactly 0 | 35.8% | 35.6% | 22.5% | 1.58× | 2.81 |
| Real Oviedo to score exactly 2 | 18.9% | 18.9% | 25.0% | 0.76× | 5.29 |
| Real Oviedo to score 3+ | 8.5% | 10.3% | 17.0% | 0.60× | 9.71 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 55.0% | 48.5% | — | — | 2.06 |
| Real Oviedo leading at HT | 28.8% | 25.7% | — | — | 3.89 |
| Burgos leading at HT | 16.2% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.46 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo -1: 2 | 56.6% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Real Oviedo -1: X | 26.3% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Real Oviedo -1: 1 | 17.1% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.72 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (0:1) | 56.6% | 55.8% | 54.6% | 1.02× | 1.79 |
| Draw (0:1) | 26.3% | 27.0% | 26.0% | 1.04× | 3.71 |
| Real Oviedo (0:1) | 17.1% | 17.8% | 19.6% | 0.91× | 5.63 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (0:2) | 82.9% | 82.8% | 80.4% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Draw (0:2) | 12.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 0.91× | 9.12 |
| Real Oviedo (0:2) | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 1.00× | 12.97 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (0:3) | 94.9% | 92.6% | 92.3% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 3.9% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 0.44× | 42.09 |
| Real Oviedo (0:3) | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.98× | 42.21 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos (0:4) | 98.8% | 98.1% | 97.6% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.57× | 83.57 |
| Real Oviedo (0:4) | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.84× | 83.66 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo (1:0) | 75.9% | 78.4% | 71.9% | 1.09× | 1.28 |
| Draw (1:0) | 17.5% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 0.95× | 5.87 |
| Burgos (1:0) | 6.6% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 0.68× | 14.46 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo (2:0) | 93.4% | 93.9% | 89.8% | 1.05× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 0.92× | 15.51 |
| Burgos (2:0) | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 0.69× | 44.29 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 41.3% | 49.0% | — | — | 2.04 |
| Halves equal | 33.0% | 29.2% | — | — | 3.42 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 25.7% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo clean sheet | 50.8% | 53.1% | 32.7% | 1.62× | 1.88 |
| Real Oviedo to concede | 49.2% | 46.9% | 67.3% | 0.70× | 2.13 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo clean sheet in 1st half | 76.2% | 77.4% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Real Oviedo to concede in 1st half | 23.8% | 22.6% | — | — | 4.43 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo over 2.5 corners | 79.8% | 76.2% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Real Oviedo under 6.5 corners | 76.0% | 76.1% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Real Oviedo over 3.5 corners | 65.0% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Real Oviedo under 5.5 corners | 64.5% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Real Oviedo under 4.5 corners | 50.5% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Real Oviedo over 4.5 corners | 49.5% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Real Oviedo over 5.5 corners | 35.5% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Real Oviedo under 3.5 corners | 35.0% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Real Oviedo over 6.5 corners | 24.0% | 23.9% | — | — | 4.19 |
| Real Oviedo under 2.5 corners | 20.2% | 23.9% | — | — | 4.19 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo under 3.5 goals | 97.9% | 96.4% | 93.7% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Real Oviedo under 2.5 goals | 91.5% | 92.2% | 83.0% | 1.11× | 1.08 |
| Real Oviedo under 1.5 goals | 72.6% | 74.2% | 58.0% | 1.28× | 1.35 |
| Real Oviedo over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | 63.5% | 77.5% | 0.82× | 1.58 |
| Real Oviedo under 0.5 goals | 35.8% | 36.5% | 22.5% | 1.62× | 2.74 |
| Real Oviedo over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 25.8% | 42.0% | 0.62× | 3.87 |
| Real Oviedo over 2.5 goals | 8.5% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 0.46× | 12.90 |
| Real Oviedo over 3.5 goals | 2.1% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 0.58× | 27.52 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo under 1.5 in 1st half | 92.7% | 95.4% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Real Oviedo under 0.5 in 1st half | 64.3% | 64.8% | — | — | 1.54 |
| Real Oviedo over 0.5 in 1st half | 35.7% | 35.2% | — | — | 2.84 |
| Real Oviedo over 1.5 in 1st half | 7.3% | 4.6% | — | — | 21.78 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 57.5% | 56.7% | 48.7% | 1.17× | 1.76 |
| Burgos (home no bet) | 42.5% | 43.3% | 51.3% | 0.84× | 2.31 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo even goals | 56.4% | 55.4% | 51.8% | 1.07× | 1.80 |
| Real Oviedo odd goals | 43.6% | 44.6% | 48.2% | 0.93× | 2.24 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 49.0% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
| HT 1-0 | 21.7% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.15 |
| HT 0-1 | 13.4% | 10.9% | — | — | 9.15 |
| HT 1-1 | 5.8% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.07 |
| HT 2-0 | 4.8% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.26 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.8% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.48 |
| HT 2-1 | 1.3% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.52 |
| Any other HT score | 1.3% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.51 |
| HT 1-2 | 0.8% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.55 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.2% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.60 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 25.1% | 26.7% | — | — | 3.75 |
| Real Oviedo at HT / Real Oviedo at FT | 23.9% | 21.9% | — | — | 4.58 |
| Draw at HT / Real Oviedo at FT | 18.2% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Burgos at FT | 11.6% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.90 |
| Burgos at HT / Burgos at FT | 11.5% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.90 |
| Real Oviedo at HT / Draw at FT | 4.0% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.81 |
| Burgos at HT / Draw at FT | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.83 |
| Burgos at HT / Real Oviedo at FT | 1.2% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.92 |
| Real Oviedo at HT / Burgos at FT | 0.9% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.93 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo to score last | 49.4% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Burgos to score last | 32.7% | 32.9% | — | — | 3.04 |
| No goal scored | 17.9% | 12.8% | — | — | 7.79 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 82.1% | 87.1% | — | — | 1.15 |
| Real Oviedo to lead by 1 at any time | 53.2% | 50.7% | — | — | 1.97 |
| Burgos to lead by 1 at any time | 35.2% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.88 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 28.9% | 25.5% | — | — | 3.92 |
| Real Oviedo to lead by 2 at any time | 20.1% | 19.6% | — | — | 5.11 |
| Burgos to lead by 2 at any time | 8.8% | 6.7% | — | — | 15.00 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 7.5% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.06 |
| Real Oviedo to lead by 3 at any time | 5.8% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.14 |
| Burgos to lead by 3 at any time | 1.7% | 1.6% | — | — | 62.65 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo most corners | 58.2% | 55.4% | — | — | 1.80 |
| Burgos most corners | 30.4% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
| Corners level | 11.4% | 10.6% | — | — | 9.39 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 81.3% | 83.5% | 85.8% | 0.97× | 1.20 |
| 1-4 goals | 79.2% | 78.6% | 78.1% | 1.01× | 1.27 |
| 1-3 goals | 72.8% | 72.4% | 63.0% | 1.15× | 1.38 |
| 1-2 goals | 57.8% | 59.2% | 42.0% | 1.41× | 1.69 |
| 2-6 goals | 50.3% | 53.2% | 67.8% | 0.78× | 1.88 |
| 2-5 goals | 49.7% | 48.7% | 64.2% | 0.76× | 2.06 |
| 2-4 goals | 47.5% | 48.7% | 56.6% | 0.86× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 41.1% | 43.6% | 41.4% | 1.05× | 2.30 |
| 3-6 goals | 24.2% | 24.5% | 47.5% | 0.52× | 4.08 |
| 3-5 goals | 23.6% | 24.5% | 44.0% | 0.56× | 4.09 |
| 3-4 goals | 21.4% | 24.5% | 36.3% | 0.67× | 4.09 |
| 4-6 goals | 9.2% | 8.7% | 26.5% | 0.33× | 11.43 |
| 4-5 goals | 8.6% | 8.7% | 22.9% | 0.38× | 11.44 |
| 5-6 goals | 2.8% | 2.6% | 11.4% | 0.22× | 39.20 |
| 7+ goals | 0.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.61× | 39.33 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo never behind | 47.0% | 56.5% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Burgos never behind | 29.0% | 30.2% | — | — | 3.31 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.0% | 50.8% | 51.5% | 0.99× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 51.0% | 49.2% | 48.5% | 1.01× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 61.9% | 58.6% | — | — | 1.71 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 38.1% | 41.4% | — | — | 2.41 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 56.6% | 59.2% | — | — | 1.69 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 43.4% | 40.8% | — | — | 2.45 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 99.2% | 95.5% | 94.8% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 97.0% | 95.5% | 87.2% | 1.10× | 1.05 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 90.6% | 92.3% | 72.0% | 1.28× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 82.1% | 82.4% | 90.9% | 0.91× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 75.6% | 77.3% | 51.0% | 1.52× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 50.5% | 52.5% | 69.3% | 0.76× | 1.91 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 49.5% | 47.5% | 30.7% | 1.55× | 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24.4% | 22.7% | 49.0% | 0.46× | 4.41 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 17.9% | 17.6% | 9.1% | 1.93× | 5.68 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.4% | 7.7% | 28.0% | 0.28× | 12.91 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 3.0% | 4.5% | 12.8% | 0.35× | 22.21 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 0.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 0.87× | 22.25 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.8% | 97.2% | 98.4% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 99.2% | 97.2% | 94.4% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 96.8% | 97.2% | 84.9% | 1.15× | 1.03 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 89.0% | 86.8% | 64.6% | 1.34× | 1.15 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 67.0% | 67.4% | 38.5% | 1.75× | 1.48 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 33.0% | 32.6% | 61.5% | 0.53× | 3.07 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 11.0% | 13.2% | 35.4% | 0.37× | 7.55 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 3.2% | 2.8% | 15.1% | 0.18× | 36.13 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 0.8% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 0.50× | 36.20 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 0.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.69× | 36.22 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 96.4% | 97.0% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 84.0% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 51.0% | 56.4% | — | — | 1.78 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 49.0% | 43.6% | — | — | 2.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 16.0% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.30 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 3.6% | 3.0% | — | — | 32.95 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 92.1% | 89.2% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 74.0% | 77.8% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 63.0% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 37.0% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 26.0% | 22.2% | — | — | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 7.9% | 10.8% | — | — | 9.28 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos not to score in both halves | 92.1% | 90.2% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Real Oviedo not to score in both halves | 84.2% | 84.4% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Real Oviedo to score in both halves | 15.8% | 15.6% | — | — | 6.40 |
| Burgos to score in both halves | 7.9% | 9.8% | — | — | 10.20 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Only Real Oviedo scores | 32.9% | 33.4% | 23.7% | 1.41× | 3.00 |
| Both teams score | 31.2% | 33.3% | 53.9% | 0.62× | 3.00 |
| Only Burgos scores | 18.0% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 1.20× | 6.22 |
| Neither team scores | 17.9% | 16.1% | 9.1% | 1.76× | 6.22 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 1 goals | 31.7% | 25.3% | 21.7% | 1.17× | 3.96 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 26.1% | 25.0% | 20.4% | 1.22× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 17.9% | 17.4% | 9.1% | 1.91× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 15.0% | 17.4% | 21.1% | 0.82× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 6.4% | 7.6% | 15.2% | 0.50× | 13.09 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 2.2% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 0.57× | 22.69 |
| 6 or more goals | 0.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 0.85× | 22.71 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 37.0% | 39.7% | — | — | 2.52 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 37.0% | 39.7% | — | — | 2.52 |
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 26.0% | 29.8% | — | — | 3.36 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos not to win both halves | 96.6% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Real Oviedo not to win both halves | 90.6% | 93.9% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Real Oviedo to win both halves | 9.4% | 6.1% | — | — | 16.38 |
| Burgos to win both halves | 3.4% | 2.8% | — | — | 35.83 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos to win neither half | 66.2% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Real Oviedo to win either half | 52.3% | 55.0% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Real Oviedo to win neither half | 47.7% | 45.0% | — | — | 2.22 |
| Burgos to win either half | 33.8% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos not to win to nil | 82.0% | 83.0% | 86.5% | 0.96× | 1.21 |
| Real Oviedo not to win to nil | 67.1% | 69.7% | 76.3% | 0.91× | 1.44 |
| Real Oviedo to win to nil | 32.9% | 30.3% | 23.7% | 1.28× | 3.30 |
| Burgos to win to nil | 18.0% | 17.0% | 13.5% | 1.26× | 5.89 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo by 1 | 26.3% | 27.8% | 26.0% | 1.07× | 3.59 |
| Draw | 32.6% | 27.6% | 26.6% | 1.04× | 3.62 |
| Burgos by 1 | 17.5% | 16.9% | 18.0% | 0.94× | 5.91 |
| Real Oviedo by 2 | 12.0% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 0.98× | 8.48 |
| Burgos by 2 | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 1.03× | 13.79 |
| Real Oviedo by 3+ | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 0.94× | 13.79 |
| Burgos by 3+ | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 0.83× | 37.04 |