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Real Oviedo v Burgos — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Real Oviedo win
44.2%
model 43.5%
Draw
28.2%
model 30.1%
Burgos win
27.5%
model 26.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 16.5%
  2. 0-0 13.9%
  3. 1-1 12.8%
  4. 0-1 11.9%
  5. 2-0 9.2%

Goals

Over 2.530.9% Under 2.569.1%
BTTS yes37.4% BTTS no62.6%
Real Oviedo 1+67.9% Real Oviedo 2+31.4%
Burgos 1+55.6% Burgos 2+19.6%

Expected goals 1.14 – 0.81. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
57/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
1-2 goals
Multi goal · usually 42%
58.9% fair odds 1.70
strong signal · 1564 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 1.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Real Oviedo.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Real Oviedo have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 28.2% for the draw and 27.5% for Burgos. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.14 for Real Oviedo and 0.81 for Burgos.

Why Real Oviedo

Nothing in the data singles out Real Oviedo.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.2%. A combined 1.95 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Burgos can win

Burgos carry the stronger rating, 1583 Elo against 1407. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Real Oviedo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Federico Viñas (0.38), Ilyas Chaira (0.23), Thiago Fernández (0.22).

Availability

2 of Real Oviedo's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Burgos, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Real Oviedo: 56% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces. Burgos: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Real Oviedo are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.5%. Confidence 57/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDLLDLLL last 10 scored 8 from 11.3 xG conceded 16 from 18.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.14–0.81 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.03–0.68 1-0 19% 24% 31%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo to win 43.4% 43.0% 45.4% 0.95× 2.32
Draw 32.6% 30.4% 26.6% 1.14× 3.29
Burgos to win 24.1% 24.5% 28.1% 0.87× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo & not both score 32.9% 29.7% 23.7% 1.26× 3.37
Draw & not both score 17.9% 17.9% 9.1% 1.96× 5.58
Burgos & not both score 18.0% 17.9% 13.5% 1.33× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 14.7% 13.3% 17.6% 0.76× 7.54
Real Oviedo & both teams score 10.5% 13.3% 21.9% 0.61× 7.55
Burgos & both teams score 6.1% 8.4% 14.7% 0.57× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo & under 3.5 38.4% 34.9% 32.3% 1.08× 2.87
Draw & under 2.5 30.2% 30.9% 20.3% 1.52× 3.24
Draw & under 3.5 30.2% 30.9% 20.3% 1.52× 3.24
Real Oviedo & under 2.5 28.6% 26.0% 19.3% 1.35× 3.84
Real Oviedo & over 1.5 24.4% 21.7% 32.5% 0.67× 4.62
Burgos & under 3.5 22.1% 21.7% 19.7% 1.10× 4.62
Real Oviedo & under 1.5 19.0% 18.0% 13.0% 1.38× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 17.9% 18.0% 9.1% 1.97× 5.56
Burgos & under 2.5 16.9% 18.0% 11.6% 1.56× 5.56
Real Oviedo & over 2.5 14.8% 12.9% 26.2% 0.49× 7.77
Draw & over 1.5 14.7% 12.9% 17.6% 0.73× 7.77
Burgos & under 1.5 12.7% 12.9% 8.7% 1.47× 7.77
Burgos & over 1.5 11.4% 12.9% 19.5% 0.66× 7.77
Burgos & over 2.5 7.2% 7.9% 16.6% 0.47× 12.70
Real Oviedo & over 3.5 5.0% 7.9% 13.2% 0.59× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 2.4% 4.8% 6.4% 0.74× 20.94
Draw & over 3.5 2.4% 4.8% 6.4% 0.74× 20.94
Burgos & over 3.5 2.0% 4.8% 8.5% 0.56× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo (1UP) 53.2% 52.7% 1.90
Burgos (1UP) 35.2% 34.1% 2.93
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo (2UP) 43.4% 47.7% 2.10
Burgos (2UP) 24.1% 23.8% 4.20
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 46.2% 45.4% 2.21
Real Oviedo to win 2nd half 32.9% 34.5% 2.90
Burgos to win 2nd half 20.9% 23.0% 4.34
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (+2.5) 94.9% 92.1% 92.3% 1.00× 1.09
Burgos (+1.5) 82.9% 82.4% 80.4% 1.02× 1.21
Real Oviedo (+0.5) 75.9% 78.4% 71.9% 1.09× 1.28
Burgos (+0.5) 56.6% 57.0% 54.6% 1.04× 1.75
Real Oviedo (-0.5) 43.4% 43.0% 45.4% 0.95× 2.33
Burgos (-0.5) 24.1% 21.6% 28.1% 0.77× 4.64
Real Oviedo (-1.5) 17.1% 17.6% 19.6% 0.90× 5.69
Real Oviedo (-2.5) 5.1% 7.9% 7.7% 1.03× 12.66
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos to concede 64.2% 67.3% 77.5% 0.87× 1.49
Burgos clean sheet 35.8% 32.7% 22.5% 1.45× 3.06
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos clean sheet in 1st half 64.3% 65.0% 1.54
Burgos to concede in 1st half 35.7% 35.0% 2.86
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos under 6.5 corners 90.0% 84.9% 1.18
Burgos under 5.5 corners 82.3% 80.9% 1.24
Burgos under 4.5 corners 70.6% 72.3% 1.38
Burgos over 2.5 corners 64.2% 61.4% 1.63
Burgos under 3.5 corners 54.6% 52.4% 1.91
Burgos over 3.5 corners 45.4% 47.6% 2.10
Burgos under 2.5 corners 35.8% 38.6% 2.59
Burgos over 4.5 corners 29.4% 27.7% 3.61
Burgos over 5.5 corners 17.7% 19.1% 5.25
Burgos over 6.5 corners 10.0% 15.1% 6.64
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.6% 97.0% 1.01× 1.03
Burgos under 2.5 goals 96.8% 97.5% 89.2% 1.09× 1.03
Burgos under 1.5 goals 85.2% 87.9% 69.5% 1.26× 1.14
Burgos under 0.5 goals 50.8% 53.7% 32.7% 1.64× 1.86
Burgos over 0.5 goals 49.2% 46.3% 67.3% 0.69× 2.16
Burgos over 1.5 goals 14.8% 12.1% 30.5% 0.40× 8.24
Burgos over 2.5 goals 3.2% 2.5% 10.8% 0.23× 40.71
Burgos over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.4% 3.0% 0.80× 40.86
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos under 1.5 in 1st half 96.9% 95.8% 1.04
Burgos under 0.5 in 1st half 76.2% 75.6% 1.32
Burgos over 0.5 in 1st half 23.8% 24.4% 4.10
Burgos over 1.5 in 1st half 3.1% 4.2% 23.86
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo (away no bet) 57.1% 57.5% 63.1% 0.91× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 42.9% 42.5% 36.9% 1.15× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos even goals 62.9% 59.1% 54.7% 1.08× 1.69
Burgos odd goals 37.1% 40.9% 45.3% 0.90× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 95.8% 95.9% 1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals 4.2% 4.1% 24.51
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 62.2% 58.0% 1.72
Not both halves under 1.5 37.8% 42.0% 2.38
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 33.7% 29.0% 3.45
Real Oviedo to score 2+ in a row 23.6% 19.6% 5.11
Burgos to score 2+ in a row 11.6% 12.2% 8.23
Either team to score 3+ in a row 8.5% 5.7% 17.60
Real Oviedo to score 3+ in a row 6.5% 5.6% 17.76
Burgos to score 3+ in a row 2.0% 2.5% 39.33
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo corners (+3.5) 92.1% 88.7% 1.13
Real Oviedo corners (+2.5) 86.9% 84.2% 1.19
Real Oviedo corners (+1.5) 79.4% 75.5% 1.33
Burgos corners (+3.5) 75.3% 75.5% 1.33
Burgos corners (+2.5) 65.3% 66.8% 1.50
Burgos corners (+1.5) 53.9% 52.3% 1.91
Real Oviedo corners (-1.5) 46.1% 47.7% 2.10
Real Oviedo corners (-2.5) 34.7% 33.2% 3.01
Real Oviedo corners (-3.5) 24.8% 24.5% 4.08
Burgos corners (-1.5) 20.6% 24.5% 4.08
Burgos corners (-2.5) 13.1% 15.8% 6.32
Burgos corners (-3.5) 7.9% 11.3% 8.81
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 55.3% 47.8% 2.09
9-11 corners 26.9% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 17.8% 21.7% 4.61
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 87.8% 82.8% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 82.2% 79.8% 1.25
Under 10.5 corners 74.9% 72.5% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 65.9% 67.9% 1.47
Over 7.5 corners 56.2% 57.8% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 55.3% 57.8% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 44.7% 42.2% 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 43.8% 42.2% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 34.1% 32.1% 3.12
Over 10.5 corners 25.1% 27.5% 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 17.8% 20.2% 4.96
Over 12.5 corners 12.2% 17.2% 5.81
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 19.0% 13.8% 13.0% 1.06× 7.26
0-0 17.9% 13.8% 9.1% 1.51× 7.26
0-1 12.7% 11.5% 8.7% 1.31× 8.73
1-1 12.3% 11.5% 11.3% 1.02× 8.73
2-0 9.6% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.48
2-1 6.5% 7.4% 10.1% 0.74× 13.48
0-2 4.2% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.47
0-3 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.48
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.49
1-2 4.3% 1.7% 7.0% 0.24× 58.47
1-3 1.0% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.48
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.03× 58.49
2-2 2.2% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.48
2-3 0.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.49
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.49
3-0 3.3% 1.7% 3.0% 0.56× 58.47
3-1 2.2% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.48
3-2 0.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.49
3-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.49
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.13× 58.49
4-0 0.8% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.49
4-1 0.6% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.49
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.49
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 5.42× 58.49
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.13× 58.49
Any other score 0.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo leading at HT (DNB) 64.0% 66.1% 1.51
Burgos leading at HT (DNB) 36.0% 34.0% 2.95
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo or draw (1X) 75.9% 75.5% 71.9% 1.05× 1.32
Real Oviedo or Burgos (12) 67.4% 69.6% 73.4% 0.95× 1.44
Burgos or draw (X2) 56.6% 57.0% 54.6% 1.04× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo or draw at HT 83.8% 84.5% 1.18
Burgos or draw at HT 71.2% 74.3% 1.35
Real Oviedo or Burgos at HT 45.0% 51.5% 1.94
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo or draw (1UP) 75.9% 83.8% 1.19
Burgos or draw (1UP) 56.6% 62.7% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo or draw in 2nd half 79.1% 77.0% 1.30
Burgos or draw in 2nd half 67.1% 65.5% 1.53
Real Oviedo or Burgos in 2nd half 53.8% 54.6% 1.83
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 76.1% 76.7% 1.30
Neither half drawn 23.9% 23.3% 4.29
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo (DNB) 64.3% 62.9% 61.8% 1.02× 1.59
Burgos (DNB) 35.7% 37.1% 38.2% 0.97× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo to score first 49.5% 45.6% 2.19
Burgos to score first 32.7% 27.2% 3.68
No goal scored 17.9% 18.1% 5.52
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 68.8% 58.2% 46.1% 1.26× 1.72
Both teams to score 31.2% 41.8% 53.9% 0.77× 2.40
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 63.3% 50.2% 39.9% 1.26× 1.99
Both score & over 2.5 18.9% 21.8% 42.8% 0.51× 4.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.3% 12.3% 11.3% 1.10× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 5.5% 8.4% 6.3% 1.32× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 95.9% 91.7% 85.7% 1.07× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 4.1% 8.3% 14.3% 0.58× 12.07
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 85.3% 85.7% 1.17
Both teams to score in 2nd half 14.7% 14.3% 6.98
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 78.2% 76.2% 1.31
Both score 2nd half only 13.4% 10.8% 9.29
Both score 1st half only 7.2% 6.8% 14.74
Both score in both halves 1.3% 4.9% 20.49
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 91.6% 91.8% 1.09
Both teams to score by HT 8.4% 8.2% 12.18
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 68.1% 66.9% 1.50
A goal in each half 31.9% 33.1% 3.02
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 goals 49.5% 47.4% 30.7% 1.54× 2.11
2-3 goals 41.1% 42.1% 41.4% 1.02× 2.38
4-6 goals 9.2% 7.6% 26.5% 0.29× 13.13
7+ goals 0.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.16× 54.79
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos to score exactly 0 50.8% 47.2% 32.7% 1.44× 2.12
Burgos to score exactly 1 34.4% 33.8% 36.9% 0.92× 2.96
Burgos to score exactly 2 11.7% 12.8% 19.8% 0.65× 7.81
Burgos to score 3+ 3.2% 4.5% 10.8% 0.42× 22.09
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.6% 35.6% 1.00× 2.81
Real Oviedo to score exactly 0 35.8% 35.6% 22.5% 1.58× 2.81
Real Oviedo to score exactly 2 18.9% 18.9% 25.0% 0.76× 5.29
Real Oviedo to score 3+ 8.5% 10.3% 17.0% 0.60× 9.71
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 55.0% 48.5% 2.06
Real Oviedo leading at HT 28.8% 25.7% 3.89
Burgos leading at HT 16.2% 15.5% 6.46
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo -1: 2 56.6% 56.7% 1.77
Real Oviedo -1: X 26.3% 26.5% 3.77
Real Oviedo -1: 1 17.1% 17.5% 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:1) 56.6% 55.8% 54.6% 1.02× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 26.3% 27.0% 26.0% 1.04× 3.71
Real Oviedo (0:1) 17.1% 17.8% 19.6% 0.91× 5.63
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:2) 82.9% 82.8% 80.4% 1.03× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 12.0% 11.0% 12.0% 0.91× 9.12
Real Oviedo (0:2) 5.1% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 12.97
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:3) 94.9% 92.6% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 3.9% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.09
Real Oviedo (0:3) 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 0.98× 42.21
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos (0:4) 98.8% 98.1% 97.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 83.57
Real Oviedo (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 2.84× 83.66
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo (1:0) 75.9% 78.4% 71.9% 1.09× 1.28
Draw (1:0) 17.5% 17.0% 18.0% 0.95× 5.87
Burgos (1:0) 6.6% 6.9% 10.2% 0.68× 14.46
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo (2:0) 93.4% 93.9% 89.8% 1.05× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 5.2% 6.4% 7.0% 0.92× 15.51
Burgos (2:0) 1.3% 2.3% 3.3% 0.69× 44.29
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 41.3% 49.0% 2.04
Halves equal 33.0% 29.2% 3.42
1st half highest scoring 25.7% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo clean sheet 50.8% 53.1% 32.7% 1.62× 1.88
Real Oviedo to concede 49.2% 46.9% 67.3% 0.70× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo clean sheet in 1st half 76.2% 77.4% 1.29
Real Oviedo to concede in 1st half 23.8% 22.6% 4.43
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo over 2.5 corners 79.8% 76.2% 1.31
Real Oviedo under 6.5 corners 76.0% 76.1% 1.31
Real Oviedo over 3.5 corners 65.0% 62.0% 1.61
Real Oviedo under 5.5 corners 64.5% 62.0% 1.61
Real Oviedo under 4.5 corners 50.5% 53.0% 1.89
Real Oviedo over 4.5 corners 49.5% 47.0% 2.13
Real Oviedo over 5.5 corners 35.5% 38.0% 2.63
Real Oviedo under 3.5 corners 35.0% 38.0% 2.63
Real Oviedo over 6.5 corners 24.0% 23.9% 4.19
Real Oviedo under 2.5 corners 20.2% 23.9% 4.19
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo under 3.5 goals 97.9% 96.4% 93.7% 1.03× 1.04
Real Oviedo under 2.5 goals 91.5% 92.2% 83.0% 1.11× 1.08
Real Oviedo under 1.5 goals 72.6% 74.2% 58.0% 1.28× 1.35
Real Oviedo over 0.5 goals 64.2% 63.5% 77.5% 0.82× 1.58
Real Oviedo under 0.5 goals 35.8% 36.5% 22.5% 1.62× 2.74
Real Oviedo over 1.5 goals 27.4% 25.8% 42.0% 0.62× 3.87
Real Oviedo over 2.5 goals 8.5% 7.8% 17.0% 0.46× 12.90
Real Oviedo over 3.5 goals 2.1% 3.6% 6.3% 0.58× 27.52
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo under 1.5 in 1st half 92.7% 95.4% 1.05
Real Oviedo under 0.5 in 1st half 64.3% 64.8% 1.54
Real Oviedo over 0.5 in 1st half 35.7% 35.2% 2.84
Real Oviedo over 1.5 in 1st half 7.3% 4.6% 21.78
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 57.5% 56.7% 48.7% 1.17× 1.76
Burgos (home no bet) 42.5% 43.3% 51.3% 0.84× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo even goals 56.4% 55.4% 51.8% 1.07× 1.80
Real Oviedo odd goals 43.6% 44.6% 48.2% 0.93× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 49.0% 47.9% 2.09
HT 1-0 21.7% 24.1% 4.15
HT 0-1 13.4% 10.9% 9.15
HT 1-1 5.8% 7.1% 14.07
HT 2-0 4.8% 2.3% 43.26
HT 0-2 1.8% 2.3% 43.48
HT 2-1 1.3% 2.3% 43.52
Any other HT score 1.3% 2.3% 43.51
HT 1-2 0.8% 2.3% 43.55
HT 2-2 0.2% 2.3% 43.60
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 25.1% 26.7% 3.75
Real Oviedo at HT / Real Oviedo at FT 23.9% 21.9% 4.58
Draw at HT / Real Oviedo at FT 18.2% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Burgos at FT 11.6% 12.7% 7.90
Burgos at HT / Burgos at FT 11.5% 12.7% 7.90
Real Oviedo at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% 28.81
Burgos at HT / Draw at FT 3.5% 3.5% 28.83
Burgos at HT / Real Oviedo at FT 1.2% 3.5% 28.92
Real Oviedo at HT / Burgos at FT 0.9% 3.5% 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo to score last 49.4% 46.8% 2.14
Burgos to score last 32.7% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 17.9% 12.8% 7.79
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 82.1% 87.1% 1.15
Real Oviedo to lead by 1 at any time 53.2% 50.7% 1.97
Burgos to lead by 1 at any time 35.2% 34.8% 2.88
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 28.9% 25.5% 3.92
Real Oviedo to lead by 2 at any time 20.1% 19.6% 5.11
Burgos to lead by 2 at any time 8.8% 6.7% 15.00
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 7.5% 6.6% 15.06
Real Oviedo to lead by 3 at any time 5.8% 6.6% 15.14
Burgos to lead by 3 at any time 1.7% 1.6% 62.65
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo most corners 58.2% 55.4% 1.80
Burgos most corners 30.4% 33.7% 2.97
Corners level 11.4% 10.6% 9.39
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 81.3% 83.5% 85.8% 0.97× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.2% 78.6% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
1-3 goals 72.8% 72.4% 63.0% 1.15× 1.38
1-2 goals 57.8% 59.2% 42.0% 1.41× 1.69
2-6 goals 50.3% 53.2% 67.8% 0.78× 1.88
2-5 goals 49.7% 48.7% 64.2% 0.76× 2.06
2-4 goals 47.5% 48.7% 56.6% 0.86× 2.06
2-3 goals 41.1% 43.6% 41.4% 1.05× 2.30
3-6 goals 24.2% 24.5% 47.5% 0.52× 4.08
3-5 goals 23.6% 24.5% 44.0% 0.56× 4.09
3-4 goals 21.4% 24.5% 36.3% 0.67× 4.09
4-6 goals 9.2% 8.7% 26.5% 0.33× 11.43
4-5 goals 8.6% 8.7% 22.9% 0.38× 11.44
5-6 goals 2.8% 2.6% 11.4% 0.22× 39.20
7+ goals 0.2% 2.5% 1.6% 1.61× 39.33
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo never behind 47.0% 56.5% 1.77
Burgos never behind 29.0% 30.2% 3.31
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.0% 50.8% 51.5% 0.99× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.0% 49.2% 48.5% 1.01× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 61.9% 58.6% 1.71
Odd goals in 1st half 38.1% 41.4% 2.41
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 56.6% 59.2% 1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half 43.4% 40.8% 2.45
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 99.2% 95.5% 94.8% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 97.0% 95.5% 87.2% 1.10× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 90.6% 92.3% 72.0% 1.28× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 82.1% 82.4% 90.9% 0.91× 1.21
Under 2.5 goals 75.6% 77.3% 51.0% 1.52× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 50.5% 52.5% 69.3% 0.76× 1.91
Under 1.5 goals 49.5% 47.5% 30.7% 1.55× 2.10
Over 2.5 goals 24.4% 22.7% 49.0% 0.46× 4.41
Under 0.5 goals 17.9% 17.6% 9.1% 1.93× 5.68
Over 3.5 goals 9.4% 7.7% 28.0% 0.28× 12.91
Over 4.5 goals 3.0% 4.5% 12.8% 0.35× 22.21
Over 5.5 goals 0.8% 4.5% 5.2% 0.87× 22.25
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.8% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 99.2% 97.2% 94.4% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 96.8% 97.2% 84.9% 1.15× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 89.0% 86.8% 64.6% 1.34× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.0% 67.4% 38.5% 1.75× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 33.0% 32.6% 61.5% 0.53× 3.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 11.0% 13.2% 35.4% 0.37× 7.55
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 3.2% 2.8% 15.1% 0.18× 36.13
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 0.8% 2.8% 5.6% 0.50× 36.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.2% 2.8% 1.6% 1.69× 36.22
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 96.4% 97.0% 1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half 84.0% 86.3% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 51.0% 56.4% 1.78
Under 0.5 in 1st half 49.0% 43.6% 2.29
Over 1.5 in 1st half 16.0% 13.7% 7.30
Over 2.5 in 1st half 3.6% 3.0% 32.95
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 92.1% 89.2% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.0% 77.8% 1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 63.0% 61.7% 1.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.0% 38.3% 2.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 26.0% 22.2% 4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 7.9% 10.8% 9.28
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos not to score in both halves 92.1% 90.2% 1.11
Real Oviedo not to score in both halves 84.2% 84.4% 1.19
Real Oviedo to score in both halves 15.8% 15.6% 6.40
Burgos to score in both halves 7.9% 9.8% 10.20
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Real Oviedo scores 32.9% 33.4% 23.7% 1.41× 3.00
Both teams score 31.2% 33.3% 53.9% 0.62× 3.00
Only Burgos scores 18.0% 16.1% 13.5% 1.20× 6.22
Neither team scores 17.9% 16.1% 9.1% 1.76× 6.22
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 31.7% 25.3% 21.7% 1.17× 3.96
Exactly 2 goals 26.1% 25.0% 20.4% 1.22× 4.01
Exactly 0 goals 17.9% 17.4% 9.1% 1.91× 5.74
Exactly 3 goals 15.0% 17.4% 21.1% 0.82× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 6.4% 7.6% 15.2% 0.50× 13.09
Exactly 5 goals 2.2% 4.4% 7.8% 0.57× 22.69
6 or more goals 0.8% 4.4% 5.2% 0.85× 22.71
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 37.0% 39.7% 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 37.0% 39.7% 2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half 26.0% 29.8% 3.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos not to win both halves 96.6% 97.2% 1.03
Real Oviedo not to win both halves 90.6% 93.9% 1.07
Real Oviedo to win both halves 9.4% 6.1% 16.38
Burgos to win both halves 3.4% 2.8% 35.83
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos to win neither half 66.2% 67.8% 1.48
Real Oviedo to win either half 52.3% 55.0% 1.82
Real Oviedo to win neither half 47.7% 45.0% 2.22
Burgos to win either half 33.8% 32.2% 3.11
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Burgos not to win to nil 82.0% 83.0% 86.5% 0.96× 1.21
Real Oviedo not to win to nil 67.1% 69.7% 76.3% 0.91× 1.44
Real Oviedo to win to nil 32.9% 30.3% 23.7% 1.28× 3.30
Burgos to win to nil 18.0% 17.0% 13.5% 1.26× 5.89
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Oviedo by 1 26.3% 27.8% 26.0% 1.07× 3.59
Draw 32.6% 27.6% 26.6% 1.04× 3.62
Burgos by 1 17.5% 16.9% 18.0% 0.94× 5.91
Real Oviedo by 2 12.0% 11.8% 12.0% 0.98× 8.48
Burgos by 2 5.2% 7.3% 7.0% 1.03× 13.79
Real Oviedo by 3+ 5.1% 7.3% 7.7% 0.94× 13.79
Burgos by 3+ 1.3% 2.7% 3.3% 0.83× 37.04
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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