Real Oviedo v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 15
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.01 – -1.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Oviedo win
14.0%
Draw
23.8%
Real Betis win
62.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.70–1.75 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.00–1.65 | 0-1 12% | 49% | 51% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Oviedo 1.01 xGReal Betis 2.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Oviedo attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rahim Alhassane |
| 13' |
Real Oviedo |
David Carmo | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 23' |
 Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Pablo Fornals |
| 24' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 29' |
Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Haissem Hassan |
| 32' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 34' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 36' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 36' |
Real Oviedo |
Lucas Ahijado | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Real Oviedo |
Santiago Colombatto | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Haissem Hassan |
| 38' |
Real Oviedo |
Kwasi Sibo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Costas |
| 43' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Real Oviedo |
David Carmo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kwasi Sibo |
| 48' |
Real Betis |
Júnior Firpo | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 51' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 51' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 52' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 52' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 58' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 58' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Real Oviedo |
Santiago Colombatto | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álex Forés |
| 71' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rahim Alhassane |
| 72' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 82' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Goal | Antony |
| 84' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ezequiel Ávila |
| 93' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Lo Celso MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.02 | 0.86 |
| Pablo Fornals MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.18 | 1.74 |
| Antony FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.73 | 1.62 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Valentín Gómez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Marc Roca MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.69 | 0.27 | 0.97 |
| Júnior Firpo DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Aitor Ruibal FWL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ángel Ortiz DR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Héctor Bellerín Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.74 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Ezequiel Ávila Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Reina AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.09 | 0.69 |
| David Carmo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Ahijado DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Rahim Alhassane DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.65 |
| David Costas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Santiago Colombatto DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Ilyas Chaira AML | 86 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Haissem Hassan AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| Álex Forés FW | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.61 |
| Kwasi Sibo DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.52 |
| Nicolás Fonseca Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josip Brekalo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Borbas Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier López Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leander Dendoncker Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |