Real Oviedo v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 23 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
32 – 14
On target
8 – 6
Shots in box
22 – 10
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
1.56 – 1.49
Goals − xG
-1.53 – -2.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Oviedo win
25.7%
Draw
24.7%
Villarreal win
49.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.09–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.20–1.66 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 57% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Oviedo 2.53 xGVillarreal 3.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Oviedo attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Real Oviedo |
Eric Bailly | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilyas Chaira |
| 0' |
Real Oviedo |
Eric Bailly | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilyas Chaira |
| 12' |
 Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 12' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 14' |
Real Oviedo |
Kwasi Sibo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Real Oviedo |
Kwasi Sibo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Villarreal |
Alfon | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 15' |
Villarreal |
Alfon | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 22' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ilyas Chaira |
| 22' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ilyas Chaira |
| 26' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 26' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 31' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 31' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 47' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Fernández |
| 47' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Fernández |
| 48' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.33 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 48' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.33 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 48' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ilyas Chaira |
| 48' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ilyas Chaira |
| 49' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Javier López |
| 49' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Javier López |
| 50' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 56' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 58' |
Real Oviedo |
Dani Calvo | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 58' |
Real Oviedo |
Dani Calvo | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 65' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Fernández |
| 65' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago Fernández |
| 67' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 67' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 68' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 68' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 80' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Sergi Cardona |
| 80' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Sergi Cardona |
| 82' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 82' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 82' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ayoze Pérez |
| 82' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ayoze Pérez |
| 93' |
Real Oviedo |
Santiago Colombatto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Real Oviedo |
Santiago Colombatto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
| 96' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Cazorla |
Players
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Pepe FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.70 |
| Pau Navarro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Sergi Cardona DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Arnau Tenas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Santiago Mouriño DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Daniel Parejo MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Alfon ML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tajon Buchanan MR | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Georges Mikautadze Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Ayoze Pérez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Alberto Moleiro Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Alexander Freeman Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Thomas Partey Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Viñas FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Dani Calvo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Chaira AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Eric Bailly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Colombatto DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 0.14 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Alberto Reina AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.33 | 0.08 |
| Thiago Fernández AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Kwasi Sibo DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ovie Ejaria Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haissem Hassan Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Cazorla Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Agudín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rahim Alhassane Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |