Real Sociedad v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 22 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 5
On target
3 – 0
Shots in box
9 – 2
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.88 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-1.90 – +0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
48.0%
Draw
26.6%
Getafe win
25.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.44–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.52–0.88 | 1-0 14% | 43% | 46% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.90 xGGetafe 0.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Djené Dakonam |
| 6' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Aihen Muñoz |
| 13' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.74 | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — | |
| 17' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 25' |
Getafe |
Sebastián Boselli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 28' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Gorrotxategi | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 32' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 37' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.22 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 53' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 59' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 70' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 81' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mauro Arambarri |
| 83' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 88' |
Real Sociedad |
Wesley | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Karrikaburu | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Martín Satriano FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sebastián Boselli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Juan Iglesias DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Luis Vázquez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Martín MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Javi Muñoz Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nyom Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Rico Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Liso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Carlos Soler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.61 | 0.84 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takefusa Kubo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Aihen Muñoz DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.40 |
| Brais Méndez AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.10 | 0.02 | 0.62 |
| Pablo Marín AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.62 |
| Aritz Elustondo DR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Jon Aramburu Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wesley Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jon Karrikaburu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |