Real Sociedad v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 24 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 7
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.87 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.83 – -0.64
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
45.8%
Draw
24.5%
Mallorca win
29.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.29–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–0.99 | 1-0 13% | 40% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 2.83 xGMallorca 0.64 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 5' |
Real Sociedad |
Igor Zubeldia | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 8' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 18' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.57 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 21' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 22' |
 Mallorca |
Antonio Sánchez | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Toni Lato |
| 24' |
Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 35' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Gorrotxategi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 40' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 46' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jon Aramburu |
| 48' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.74 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 59' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Real Sociedad |
Igor Zubeldia | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 61' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 66' |
Real Sociedad |
Duje Caleta-Car | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 68' |
Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 68' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 78' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aihen Muñoz |
| 80' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 91' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Joseph FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Torre MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| Toni Lato DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Antonio Sánchez MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| David López DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Samú Costa Sub | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Omar Mascarell MC | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Domenech Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergi Darder Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Mojica Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateu Morey Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.92 | 0.37 | 1.35 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.09 | 0.43 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ander Barrenetxea FWL | 87 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.96 | 1.76 |
| Takefusa Kubo FWR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 1.44 |
| Brais Méndez MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.04 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 1.04 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |