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Real Sociedad v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 13 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526

La Liga xG Prediction generated

Real Sociedad
1–2
3.15 – 2.54 xG
Real Madrid
Shots
23 – 16
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
15 – 14
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.67 – 0.79
Goals − xG
-2.20 – -0.55

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Real Sociedad win
21.2%
Draw
20.3%
Real Madrid win
58.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DLDDLDLLWD last 10 scored 13 from 13.9 xG conceded 18 from 19.7 xG

Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWWWWWWL last 10 scored 20 from 21.0 xG conceded 8 from 10.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 0.92–1.75 0% 0% 0% Away ✓
dc-xg-oos 1.08–1.88 1-1 11% 57% 56% Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.82.73.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 11' — goalArda Güler 43' — goalMikel Oyarzabal 55' — goal
Real Sociedad 3.20 xGReal Madrid 2.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Pablo Marín 3' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 8' — Saved Shot (0.54 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 11' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 14' — Shot On Post (0.07 xG, Open Play)Duje Caleta-Car 16' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Ander Barrenetxea 17' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mikel Goti 20' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Arda Güler 25' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Eder Militão 25' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 25' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Set Piece)Dean Huijsen 26' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Brahim Diaz 29' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Eder Militão 29' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, From Corner)Ander Barrenetxea 33' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Mikel Oyarzabal 35' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Eder Militão 39' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Daniel Carvajal 42' — Shot On Post (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Arda Güler 43' — Goal (0.61 xG, Open Play)Vinícius Júnior 49' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Pablo Marín 49' — Blocked Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Jon Gorrotxategi 50' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mikel Goti 52' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Mikel Oyarzabal 55' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 59' — Missed Shot (0.16 xG, Open Play)Mikel Oyarzabal 64' — Saved Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Carlos Soler 66' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Duje Caleta-Car 66' — Missed Shot (0.54 xG, Set Piece)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 69' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Arsen Zakharyan 71' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Ander Barrenetxea 76' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Raúl 77' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Sergio Gómez 78' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Igor Zubeldia 83' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jon Karrikaburu 83' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Mikel Oyarzabal 83' — Saved Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Duje Caleta-Car 87' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Takefusa Kubo 88' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jon Aramburu 91' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jon Karrikaburu 91' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Real Sociedad attacking right Real Madrid attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Real Sociedad Pablo Marín 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gonçalo Guedes
8' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.54 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Daniel Carvajal
11' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
14' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Vinícius Júnior
16' Real Sociedad Duje Caleta-Car 0.07 From Corner — Blocked Shot Sergio Gómez
17' Real Sociedad Ander Barrenetxea 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sergio Gómez
20' Real Sociedad Mikel Goti 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pablo Marín
25' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.05 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot —
25' Real Madrid Eder Militão 0.10 Set Piece — Saved Shot Dean Huijsen
25' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.11 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Brahim Diaz
26' Real Madrid Dean Huijsen 0.08 From Corner — Missed Shot Arda Güler
29' Real Madrid Brahim Diaz 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Dani Ceballos
29' Real Madrid Eder Militão 0.30 From Corner — Saved Shot Arda Güler
33' Real Sociedad Ander Barrenetxea 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Mikel Oyarzabal
35' Real Sociedad Mikel Oyarzabal 0.08 From Corner — Missed Shot Ander Barrenetxea
39' Real Madrid Eder Militão 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot —
42' Real Madrid Daniel Carvajal 0.01 Set Piece — Shot On Post Arda Güler
43' Real Madrid Arda Güler 0.61 Open Play Left Foot Goal Kylian Mbappe-Lottin
49' Real Madrid Vinícius Júnior 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kylian Mbappe-Lottin
49' Real Sociedad Pablo Marín 0.30 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mikel Oyarzabal
50' Real Sociedad Jon Gorrotxategi 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
52' Real Sociedad Mikel Goti 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Duje Caleta-Car
55' Real Sociedad Mikel Oyarzabal 0.74 Left Foot Goal —
59' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.16 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Vinícius Júnior
64' Real Sociedad Mikel Oyarzabal 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ander Barrenetxea
66' Real Sociedad Carlos Soler 0.09 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Mikel Oyarzabal
66' Real Sociedad Duje Caleta-Car 0.54 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Carlos Soler
69' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Eder Militão
71' Real Sociedad Arsen Zakharyan 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Ander Barrenetxea
76' Real Sociedad Ander Barrenetxea 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
77' Real Madrid Raúl 0.02 Set Piece — Saved Shot Arda Güler
78' Real Sociedad Sergio Gómez 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mikel Oyarzabal
83' Real Sociedad Igor Zubeldia 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot Sergio Gómez
83' Real Sociedad Jon Karrikaburu 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
83' Real Sociedad Mikel Oyarzabal 0.39 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Carlos Soler
87' Real Sociedad Duje Caleta-Car 0.05 From Corner — Saved Shot Arsen Zakharyan
88' Real Sociedad Takefusa Kubo 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Carlos Soler
91' Real Sociedad Jon Aramburu 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ander Barrenetxea
91' Real Sociedad Jon Karrikaburu 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Carlos Soler

Players

Real Madrid

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW 90 1 1 6 2 1.21 0.66 1.76
Arda Güler AMC 90 1 0 2 4 0.66 0.41 0.61
Eder Militão DC 90 0 0 3 1 0.47 0.02 0.02
Thibaut Courtois GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Álvaro Fernández DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.14
Aurelien Tchouameni DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.54
Daniel Carvajal DR 86 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.54 0.61
Vinícius Júnior AML 72 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.24 0.89
Dani Ceballos DMC 72 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.82
Brahim Diaz AMR 50 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.11 0.00
Federico Valverde Sub 40 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Dean Huijsen DC 31 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.10 0.00
Raúl Sub 18 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Fran García Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Trent Alexander-Arnold Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
David Alaba Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Real Sociedad

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mikel Oyarzabal FW 90 1 0 4 4 1.57 0.47 1.19
Duje Caleta-Car DC 90 0 0 3 1 0.67 0.12 0.89
Sergio Gómez DL 90 0 0 1 3 0.06 0.13 0.72
Ander Barrenetxea AML 90 0 0 3 4 0.06 0.49 0.53
Igor Zubeldia DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.77
Remiro GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Jon Gorrotxategi DMC 82 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.51
Pablo Marín DMC 70 0 0 2 1 0.31 0.06 0.51
Gonçalo Guedes AMR 70 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.68
Mikel Goti AMC 61 0 0 2 0 0.18 0.00 0.18
Aritz Elustondo DR 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Soler Sub 29 0 0 1 4 0.09 1.02 0.49
Jon Aramburu Sub 29 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.83
Takefusa Kubo Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.08
Arsen Zakharyan Sub 20 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.05 0.08
Jon Karrikaburu Sub 8 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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