Real Sociedad v Real Valladolid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 12
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.18
Goals − xG
+0.67 – -0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
59.3%
Draw
24.4%
Real Valladolid win
16.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.5 xG
conceded 27
from 21.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.65–0.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.33 xGReal Valladolid 1.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Real Valladolid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 11' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 12' |
Real Sociedad |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 13' |
 Real Valladolid |
Stanko Juric | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Real Valladolid |
Iván Sánchez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Latasa |
| 15' |
Real Valladolid |
Raul Moro | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Real Valladolid |
Iván Sánchez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raul Moro |
| 22' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pablo Marín |
| 25' |
Real Sociedad |
Javier López | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 32' |
Real Sociedad |
Hamari Traore | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martín Zubimendi |
| 32' |
Real Valladolid |
Javi Sánchez | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Iván Sánchez |
| 38' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martín Zubimendi |
| 49' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 54' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Real Valladolid |
David Torres | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Stanko Juric |
| 58' |
Real Valladolid |
Stanko Juric | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Selim Amallah |
| 67' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 70' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arkaitz Mariezkurrena |
| 76' |
Real Valladolid |
Chuki | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iván Sánchez |
| 84' |
Real Valladolid |
Florian Grillitsch | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Latasa |
| 85' |
Real Valladolid |
Juan Latasa | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Sylla |
| 87' |
Real Valladolid |
Javi Sánchez | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Darwin Machís |
| 92' |
Real Valladolid |
Juan Latasa | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Goal | Darwin Machís |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Gómez ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.56 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.40 | 0.87 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Aritz Elustondo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.68 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.77 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.65 |
| Hamari Traore DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Pablo Marín MC | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.39 | 0.68 |
| Luka Sucic Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Jon Aramburu Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Daniel Díaz Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Valladolid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Latasa FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.67 | 0.04 | 0.80 |
| David Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Javi Sánchez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Luis Pérez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Adam Aznou DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnau Rafús GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Iván Sánchez AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Raul Moro AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| Mario Martín DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Stanko Juric DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| Selim Amallah AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Florian Grillitsch Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Mamadou Sylla Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Chuki Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Darwin Machís Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| Adrián Arnu Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |