Real Sociedad v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 24 October 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 6
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 2
xG per shot
0.33 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.74 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.36 – +0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
40.6%
Draw
26.2%
Sevilla win
33.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.37–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–0.92 | 1-0 14% | 42% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.64 xGSevilla 0.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 18' |
 Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 29' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Gabriel Suazo |
| 35' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 52' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 55' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 89' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nemanja Gudelj |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Vargas AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Marcão DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibril Sow AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isaac Romero FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucien Agoume DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Sánchez AMR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Fábio Cardoso DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Juanlu Sanchez Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Peque Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Akor Adams Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfon Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Ander Barrenetxea AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Brais Méndez AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Gonçalo Guedes AMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Carlos Soler Sub | 58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Yangel Herrera DMC | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arsen Zakharyan Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |