Real Sociedad v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 14
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+1.70 – +2.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Sociedad win
53.5%
Draw
23.1%
Valencia win
23.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.81–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.79–1.24 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Sociedad 1.30 xGValencia 1.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Sociedad attacking right
Valencia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Sociedad |
Aihen Muñoz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Aritz Elustondo |
| 6' |
 Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Diego López |
| 21' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Eray Cömert |
| 23' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Duro |
| 33' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 34' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 41' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arsen Zakharyan |
| 47' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 61' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 62' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Aritz Elustondo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 76' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 79' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Vázquez |
| 84' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thierry Correia |
| 85' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Largie Ramazani |
| 88' |
Valencia |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | André Almeida |
| 92' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Thierry Correia |
| 92' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jesús Vázquez |
| 96' |
Valencia |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jesús Vázquez |
| 97' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Aramburu |
Players
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Guerra FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.06 | 1.75 |
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Jesús Vázquez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 1.34 |
| Unai Núñez DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Diego López ML | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| Luis Rioja MR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Filip Ugrinic MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Thierry Correia Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Largie Ramazani Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| Pepelu Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| André Almeida Sub | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.46 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Soler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.86 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Pablo Marín AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.39 |
| Beñat Turrientes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Aritz Elustondo DR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.71 |
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Aihen Muñoz DL | 62 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Brais Méndez AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Arsen Zakharyan AML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| Sergio Gómez Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Sub | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| Luka Sucic Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jon Aramburu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |