Real Valladolid v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 16
On target
0 – 8
Shots in box
3 – 10
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.59
Goals − xG
-0.30 – +1.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Valladolid win
15.3%
Draw
24.7%
Getafe win
59.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.5 xG
conceded 27
from 21.3 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.68–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Valladolid 0.30 xGGetafe 2.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Valladolid attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Goal | Christantus Uche |
| 8' |
 Real Valladolid |
Iván Sánchez | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juanmi |
| 14' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christantus Uche |
| 20' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juanmi |
| 28' |
Getafe |
Juan Bernat | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 37' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Juan Bernat |
| 40' |
Getafe |
Juanmi | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 41' |
Real Valladolid |
Iván Sánchez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Sylla |
| 44' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Real Valladolid |
Mario Martín | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iván Sánchez |
| 47' |
Real Valladolid |
Juan Latasa | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Candela |
| 55' |
Getafe |
Christantus Uche | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omar Alderete |
| 57' |
Getafe |
Christantus Uche | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Bernat |
| 67' |
Getafe |
Juanmi | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carles Pérez |
| 77' |
Getafe |
Coba da Costa | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Coba da Costa |
| 79' |
Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.41 | From Corner | — | Goal | Luis Milla |
| 86' |
Real Valladolid |
Anuar Mohamed | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramón Terrats AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.45 | 1.57 |
| Juanmi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.18 | 1.09 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Luis Milla DMC | 89 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| Mauro Arambarri DMC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.35 |
| Christantus Uche AMC | 65 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.81 | 2.01 |
| Juan Bernat AML | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.61 | 1.03 |
| Carles Pérez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Borja Mayoral Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Coba da Costa Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Juan Berrocal Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesús Santiago Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Valladolid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Sylla FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Antonio Candela DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| André Ferreira GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tamás Nikitscher MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Iván Sánchez MR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Juan Latasa FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Raul Moro ML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Adam Aznou DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Martín MC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Henrique Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chuki Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joseph Aidoo Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darwin Machís Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anuar Mohamed Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |