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Real Valladolid v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 25 January 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

0–3
0.23 – 2.46 xG
Shots
6 – 20
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.84
Goals − xG
-0.23 – +0.54
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.12.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 29' — goalKylian Mbappe-Lottin 56' — goalKylian Mbappe-Lottin 90' — goal
Real Valladolid 0.23 xGReal Madrid 2.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

David Torres 1' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Marcos de Sousa 2' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 3' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rodrygo 10' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Mamadou Sylla 23' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Antonio Rüdiger 24' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Aurelien Tchouameni 25' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Antonio Rüdiger 28' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jude Bellingham 28' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Rodrygo 28' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 29' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Brahim Diaz 33' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Raúl 36' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rodrygo 40' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jude Bellingham 43' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marcos de Sousa 51' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 56' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jude Bellingham 61' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Federico Valverde 62' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 65' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Marcos de Sousa 74' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 79' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mamadou Sylla 80' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Luka Modric 84' — Missed Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 90' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Aurelien Tchouameni 93' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Real Valladolid attacking right Real Madrid attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Real Valladolid David Torres 0.08 From Corner Saved Shot Selim Amallah
2' Real Valladolid Marcos de Sousa 0.01 Set Piece Missed Shot Iván Sánchez
3' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Brahim Diaz
10' Real Madrid Rodrygo 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
23' Real Valladolid Mamadou Sylla 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mario Martín
24' Real Madrid Antonio Rüdiger 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Federico Valverde
25' Real Madrid Aurelien Tchouameni 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Dani Ceballos
28' Real Madrid Antonio Rüdiger 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Dani Ceballos
28' Real Madrid Jude Bellingham 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Antonio Rüdiger
28' Real Madrid Rodrygo 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
29' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jude Bellingham
33' Real Madrid Brahim Diaz 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Dani Ceballos
36' Real Madrid Raúl 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Brahim Diaz
40' Real Madrid Rodrygo 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
43' Real Madrid Jude Bellingham 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Rodrygo
51' Real Valladolid Marcos de Sousa 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
56' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Rodrygo
61' Real Madrid Jude Bellingham 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Rodrygo
62' Real Madrid Federico Valverde 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
65' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jude Bellingham
74' Real Valladolid Marcos de Sousa 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Rosa
79' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jude Bellingham
80' Real Valladolid Mamadou Sylla 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kike Pérez
84' Real Madrid Luka Modric 0.42 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Arda Güler
90' Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 0.74 Right Foot Goal
93' Real Madrid Aurelien Tchouameni 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Real Madrid

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW 90 3 0 6 0 1.38 0.00 1.18
Jude Bellingham AMC 90 0 1 3 3 0.21 0.51 0.86
Brahim Diaz AMR 90 0 0 1 2 0.08 0.04 0.70
Aurelien Tchouameni DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.68
Antonio Rüdiger DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.03 0.09 0.62
Federico Valverde DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.02 0.63
Thibaut Courtois GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Fran García DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.61
Rodrygo AML 74 0 1 3 3 0.23 0.22 0.57
Raúl DR 69 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.14
Dani Ceballos DMC 69 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.12 0.29
Luka Modric Sub 21 0 0 1 0 0.42 0.00 0.42
David Alaba Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Arda Güler Sub 16 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.42 0.42
Endrick Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lorenzo Aguado Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Real Valladolid

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
David Torres DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.01
Mario Martín MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.03
Luis Pérez DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Lucas Rosa DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.03
Karl Hein GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Javi Sánchez DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Selim Amallah MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.02
Anuar Mohamed MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Mamadou Sylla FWL 87 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Marcos de Sousa FW 80 0 0 3 0 0.06 0.00 0.07
Iván Sánchez FWR 63 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.04
Kike Pérez Sub 27 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.08
Juan Latasa Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chuki Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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