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Remo v Santos — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Remo win
40.5%
model 38.2%
Draw
29.3%
model 27.5%
Santos win
30.2%
model 34.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.0%
  2. 2-1 8.6%
  3. 1-2 8.1%
  4. 1-0 7.4%
  5. 0-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.553.7% Under 2.546.3%
BTTS yes58.4% BTTS no41.6%
Remo 1+76.7% Remo 2+42.8%
Santos 1+74.6% Santos 2+39.8%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.37. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Santos (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 51%
63.4% fair odds 1.58
moderate signal · 877 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Remo (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 90%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Remo carry the stronger rating, 1445 Elo against 1414.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Remo have an estimated 40.5% win probability, against 30.2% for Santos and 29.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.46 for Remo and 1.37 for Santos.

Why Remo

Remo carry the stronger rating, 1445 Elo against 1414.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.46 to 1.37. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Santos can win

Nothing in the data singles out Santos.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Remo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Santos, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Remo: 47% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Santos: 52% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Remo are the model's most likely outcome at 40.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.46–1.37 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.53–1.44 1-1 12% 57% 61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to win 38.6% 36.5% 48.9% 0.75× 2.74
Santos to win 34.7% 30.4% 24.0% 1.26× 3.29
Draw 26.7% 27.9% 27.2% 1.02× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo & both teams score 21.2% 21.9% 21.0% 1.04× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 20.4% 21.9% 20.7% 1.06× 4.57
Santos & both teams score 19.3% 17.9% 10.4% 1.73× 5.58
Remo & not both score 17.4% 17.9% 28.0% 0.64× 5.58
Santos & not both score 15.4% 17.9% 13.9% 1.29× 5.58
Draw & not both score 6.3% 8.4% 6.7% 1.25× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo & over 1.5 31.9% 30.9% 36.8% 0.84× 3.24
Santos & over 1.5 28.4% 26.0% 17.2% 1.51× 3.84
Remo & over 2.5 25.9% 26.0% 27.5% 0.94× 3.84
Remo & under 3.5 24.4% 21.6% 36.8% 0.59× 4.62
Santos & over 2.5 23.1% 21.6% 13.2% 1.64× 4.62
Santos & under 3.5 22.3% 21.6% 18.6% 1.16× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 20.4% 21.6% 20.7% 1.04× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 18.7% 18.0% 20.2% 0.89× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.7% 18.0% 20.2% 0.89× 5.56
Remo & over 3.5 14.2% 12.9% 12.3% 1.05× 7.77
Remo & under 2.5 12.7% 12.9% 21.5% 0.60× 7.78
Santos & over 3.5 12.4% 12.9% 5.6% 2.31× 7.78
Santos & under 2.5 11.6% 12.9% 11.0% 1.17× 7.78
Draw & over 2.5 8.0% 7.9% 7.2% 1.10× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 8.0% 7.9% 7.2% 1.10× 12.69
Remo & under 1.5 6.7% 7.9% 12.3% 0.64× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 6.7% 1.18× 12.69
Santos & under 1.5 6.2% 7.9% 7.0% 1.12× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (1UP) 56.9% 58.0% 1.73
Santos (1UP) 53.5% 52.8% 1.89
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (2UP) 38.6% 37.1% 2.70
Santos (2UP) 34.7% 31.2% 3.21
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 34.4% 34.5% 2.90
Remo to win 2nd half 33.0% 34.5% 2.90
Santos to win 2nd half 32.6% 34.4% 2.90
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos (+2.5) 92.4% 92.1% 90.8% 1.01× 1.09
Santos (+1.5) 80.5% 82.4% 76.8% 1.07× 1.21
Remo (+0.5) 65.3% 68.7% 76.0% 0.90× 1.46
Santos (+0.5) 61.4% 62.9% 51.1% 1.23× 1.59
Remo (-0.5) 38.6% 37.1% 48.9% 0.76× 2.69
Santos (-0.5) 34.7% 31.3% 24.0% 1.30× 3.19
Remo (-1.5) 19.5% 17.6% 23.2% 0.76× 5.68
Remo (-2.5) 7.6% 7.9% 9.2% 0.85× 12.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos to concede 78.3% 79.0% 79.6% 0.99× 1.27
Santos clean sheet 21.7% 21.0% 20.4% 1.03× 4.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos to concede in 1st half 48.2% 50.9% 1.96
Santos clean sheet in 1st half 51.8% 49.1% 2.04
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos over 2.5 corners 86.3% 84.9% 1.18
Santos over 3.5 corners 75.4% 75.8% 1.32
Santos over 4.5 corners 62.9% 61.4% 1.63
Santos under 6.5 corners 61.4% 61.4% 1.63
Santos over 5.5 corners 50.2% 52.4% 1.91
Santos under 5.5 corners 49.8% 47.6% 2.10
Santos over 6.5 corners 38.6% 38.6% 2.59
Santos under 4.5 corners 37.1% 38.6% 2.59
Santos under 3.5 corners 24.6% 24.2% 4.13
Santos under 2.5 corners 13.7% 15.1% 6.62
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos under 3.5 goals 94.2% 92.4% 97.9% 0.94× 1.08
Santos under 2.5 goals 82.4% 81.5% 90.9% 0.90× 1.23
Santos over 0.5 goals 76.3% 76.2% 65.4% 1.16× 1.31
Santos under 1.5 goals 57.8% 59.6% 72.0% 0.83× 1.68
Santos over 1.5 goals 42.2% 40.4% 28.0% 1.44× 2.48
Santos under 0.5 goals 23.7% 23.8% 34.6% 0.69× 4.20
Santos over 2.5 goals 17.6% 18.5% 9.1% 2.04× 5.40
Santos over 3.5 goals 5.8% 7.6% 2.1% 3.69× 13.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos under 1.5 in 1st half 88.6% 89.6% 1.12
Santos under 0.5 in 1st half 56.2% 62.8% 1.59
Santos over 0.5 in 1st half 43.8% 37.2% 2.69
Santos over 1.5 in 1st half 11.4% 10.4% 9.63
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (away no bet) 59.1% 57.5% 64.2% 0.90× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 40.9% 42.5% 35.8% 1.19× 2.36
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos even goals 52.8% 52.7% 54.9% 0.96× 1.90
Santos odd goals 47.2% 47.3% 45.1% 1.05× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 81.9% 83.2% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 18.1% 16.8% 5.94
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 69.2% 68.5% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 30.8% 31.5% 3.18
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.8% 55.5% 1.80
Remo to score 2+ in a row 35.5% 36.2% 2.76
Santos to score 2+ in a row 32.4% 28.5% 3.51
Either team to score 3+ in a row 22.0% 19.3% 5.18
Remo to score 3+ in a row 12.1% 12.0% 8.35
Santos to score 3+ in a row 10.3% 11.9% 8.38
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos corners (+3.5) 81.9% 80.0% 1.25
Remo corners (+3.5) 75.6% 75.5% 1.33
Santos corners (+2.5) 75.4% 75.5% 1.33
Remo corners (+2.5) 68.1% 66.8% 1.50
Santos corners (+1.5) 67.6% 66.8% 1.50
Remo corners (+1.5) 59.5% 56.8% 1.76
Santos corners (-1.5) 40.5% 43.2% 2.32
Remo corners (-1.5) 32.4% 33.2% 3.01
Santos corners (-2.5) 31.9% 33.2% 3.01
Remo corners (-2.5) 24.6% 24.5% 4.08
Santos corners (-3.5) 24.4% 24.5% 4.08
Remo corners (-3.5) 18.1% 20.0% 5.00
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 45.6% 40.6% 2.46
0-8 corners 27.9% 31.8% 3.15
9-11 corners 26.5% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 80.1% 79.8% 1.25
Over 8.5 corners 72.1% 72.5% 1.38
Over 9.5 corners 63.4% 62.7% 1.60
Under 12.5 corners 62.6% 62.7% 1.60
Over 10.5 corners 54.5% 52.3% 1.91
Under 11.5 corners 54.4% 52.3% 1.91
Over 11.5 corners 45.6% 47.7% 2.09
Under 10.5 corners 45.5% 47.7% 2.09
Over 12.5 corners 37.4% 37.3% 2.68
Under 9.5 corners 36.6% 37.3% 2.68
Under 8.5 corners 27.9% 27.5% 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 19.9% 20.2% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.5% 11.5% 13.7% 0.84× 8.73
2-1 8.6% 7.4% 10.8% 0.69× 13.46
1-0 6.7% 7.4% 12.3% 0.61× 13.46
1-2 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.46
0-0 6.3% 7.4% 6.7% 1.11× 13.46
0-1 6.2% 7.4% 7.0% 1.06× 13.46
0-2 5.3% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.46
2-0 6.0% 7.4% 9.4% 0.79× 13.46
2-2 6.2% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.46
0-3 2.6% 1.7% 1.8% 0.97× 58.58
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.53× 58.59
1-3 3.9% 1.7% 2.1% 0.82× 58.57
1-4 1.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.36× 58.58
2-3 3.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.97× 58.58
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.36× 58.59
3-0 3.1% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.57
3-1 4.4% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.57
3-2 3.2% 1.7% 2.9% 0.60× 58.57
3-3 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 0.97× 58.58
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.2% 10.72× 58.59
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.53× 58.59
4-1 1.7% 1.7% 2.1% 0.82× 58.58
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.79× 58.59
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.3% 5.36× 58.59
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 10.72× 58.59
Any other score 3.6% 1.7% 2.5% 0.67× 58.57
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo leading at HT (DNB) 54.4% 55.9% 1.79
Santos leading at HT (DNB) 45.6% 44.1% 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo or Santos (12) 73.3% 72.1% 72.8% 0.99× 1.39
Remo or draw (1X) 65.3% 69.6% 76.0% 0.92× 1.44
Santos or draw (X2) 61.4% 63.5% 51.1% 1.24× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo or draw at HT 73.4% 74.7% 1.34
Santos or draw at HT 68.2% 66.1% 1.51
Remo or Santos at HT 58.4% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo or draw (1UP) 65.3% 75.8% 1.32
Santos or draw (1UP) 61.4% 71.3% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo or draw in 2nd half 67.4% 65.6% 1.53
Santos or draw in 2nd half 67.0% 65.5% 1.53
Remo or Santos in 2nd half 65.6% 65.5% 1.53
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 60.4% 61.5% 1.63
Neither half drawn 39.6% 38.5% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (DNB) 52.7% 50.9% 67.0% 0.76× 1.96
Santos (DNB) 47.3% 49.1% 33.0% 1.49× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to score first 48.3% 45.6% 2.19
Santos to score first 45.4% 45.5% 2.20
No goal scored 6.3% 7.4% 13.60
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 60.9% 56.5% 51.8% 1.09× 1.77
Not both teams to score 39.1% 43.5% 48.2% 0.90× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 48.5% 44.2% 38.2% 1.16× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 30.5% 34.4% 38.9% 0.88× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 12.5% 12.3% 13.7% 0.90× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.5% 8.4% 9.6% 0.88× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 80.9% 83.1% 87.3% 0.95× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 19.1% 16.9% 12.7% 1.32× 5.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 65.9% 67.6% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 34.1% 32.4% 3.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 51.7% 56.1% 1.78
Both score 2nd half only 27.0% 26.0% 3.84
Both score 1st half only 14.2% 10.5% 9.51
Both score in both halves 7.1% 6.7% 14.94
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 78.7% 81.7% 1.22
Both teams to score by HT 21.3% 18.3% 5.48
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 59.0% 57.4% 1.74
A half without a goal 41.0% 42.6% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.2% 47.4% 49.8% 0.95× 2.11
4-6 goals 31.4% 30.7% 24.2% 1.27× 3.26
0-1 goals 19.2% 20.3% 25.6% 0.79× 4.94
7+ goals 3.2% 1.8% 0.6% 2.85× 55.10
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos to score exactly 1 34.1% 33.9% 37.6% 0.90× 2.95
Santos to score exactly 2 24.6% 22.4% 19.1% 1.17× 4.47
Santos to score exactly 0 23.7% 22.4% 34.6% 0.65× 4.47
Santos to score 3+ 17.6% 19.5% 9.1% 2.15× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to score exactly 1 33.1% 32.6% 34.2% 0.95× 3.06
Remo to score exactly 2 25.3% 26.5% 27.2% 0.97× 3.77
Remo to score exactly 0 21.7% 23.3% 20.4% 1.14× 4.30
Remo to score 3+ 19.9% 18.9% 18.5% 1.02× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.6% 43.2% 2.32
Remo leading at HT 31.8% 33.9% 2.95
Santos leading at HT 26.6% 25.3% 3.95
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo -1: 2 61.4% 62.4% 1.60
Remo -1: 1 19.5% 17.5% 5.70
Remo -1: X 19.2% 17.5% 5.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos (0:1) 61.4% 61.3% 51.1% 1.20× 1.63
Remo (0:1) 19.5% 17.8% 23.2% 0.77× 5.62
Draw (0:1) 19.2% 17.8% 25.8% 0.69× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos (0:2) 80.5% 82.7% 76.8% 1.08× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.8% 11.0% 14.2% 0.78× 9.09
Remo (0:2) 7.6% 7.7% 9.2% 0.83× 12.97
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos (0:3) 92.4% 92.6% 90.8% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.2% 5.8% 6.7% 0.87× 17.27
Remo (0:3) 2.5% 2.4% 2.7% 0.88× 42.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos (0:4) 97.5% 98.1% 97.3% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 1.8% 0.69× 83.26
Remo (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.08× 83.40
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (1:0) 65.3% 69.8% 76.0% 0.92× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 18.0% 17.0% 14.7% 1.16× 5.87
Santos (1:0) 16.7% 17.0% 9.6% 1.78× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo (2:0) 83.3% 84.5% 90.4% 0.93× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.5% 10.4% 6.2% 1.67× 9.63
Santos (2:0) 6.2% 6.5% 3.5% 1.84× 15.50
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.2% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 26.5% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.3% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to concede 76.3% 75.8% 65.4% 1.16× 1.32
Remo clean sheet 23.7% 24.2% 34.6% 0.70× 4.14
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo clean sheet in 1st half 56.2% 62.8% 1.59
Remo to concede in 1st half 43.8% 37.2% 2.69
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo over 2.5 corners 83.2% 81.3% 1.23
Remo over 3.5 corners 70.8% 71.5% 1.40
Remo under 6.5 corners 67.4% 67.8% 1.48
Remo over 4.5 corners 57.2% 57.4% 1.74
Remo under 5.5 corners 55.9% 57.4% 1.74
Remo over 5.5 corners 44.1% 42.6% 2.35
Remo under 4.5 corners 42.8% 42.6% 2.35
Remo over 6.5 corners 32.6% 32.3% 3.10
Remo under 3.5 corners 29.2% 28.5% 3.51
Remo under 2.5 corners 16.8% 18.7% 5.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo under 3.5 goals 93.1% 92.2% 94.3% 0.98× 1.08
Remo under 2.5 goals 80.1% 82.1% 81.5% 1.01× 1.22
Remo over 0.5 goals 78.3% 77.7% 79.6% 0.98× 1.29
Remo under 1.5 goals 54.8% 53.3% 54.5% 0.98× 1.88
Remo over 1.5 goals 45.2% 46.7% 45.5% 1.02× 2.14
Remo under 0.5 goals 21.7% 22.3% 20.4% 1.09× 4.49
Remo over 2.5 goals 19.9% 17.9% 18.5% 0.97× 5.60
Remo over 3.5 goals 6.9% 7.8% 5.7% 1.35× 12.89
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo under 1.5 in 1st half 85.9% 89.9% 1.11
Remo over 0.5 in 1st half 48.2% 51.0% 1.96
Remo under 0.5 in 1st half 51.8% 49.0% 2.04
Remo over 1.5 in 1st half 14.1% 10.1% 9.87
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos (home no bet) 56.5% 56.7% 46.9% 1.21× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 43.5% 43.3% 53.1% 0.82× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo even goals 52.3% 50.6% 51.8% 0.98× 1.97
Remo odd goals 47.7% 49.4% 48.2% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.3% 28.7% 3.48
HT 1-0 19.0% 18.9% 5.29
HT 0-1 16.6% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 11.2% 11.0% 9.06
HT 2-0 6.3% 7.1% 14.12
Any other HT score 4.9% 2.2% 44.55
HT 0-2 4.8% 2.2% 44.56
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.2% 44.65
HT 1-2 3.2% 2.2% 44.69
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.2% 44.86
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo at HT / Remo at FT 23.0% 22.2% 4.51
Santos at HT / Santos at FT 19.0% 16.8% 5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.6% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Remo at FT 13.1% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Santos at FT 12.9% 12.7% 7.89
Remo at HT / Draw at FT 5.9% 6.0% 16.62
Santos at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% 16.64
Remo at HT / Santos at FT 2.8% 3.4% 29.17
Santos at HT / Remo at FT 2.5% 3.4% 29.19
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to score last 48.3% 47.0% 2.13
Santos to score last 45.4% 46.8% 2.14
No goal scored 6.3% 7.4% 13.60
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.7% 92.8% 1.08
Remo to lead by 1 at any time 56.9% 55.0% 1.82
Santos to lead by 1 at any time 53.5% 50.6% 1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 49.6% 44.1% 2.27
Remo to lead by 2 at any time 26.5% 25.2% 3.97
Santos to lead by 2 at any time 23.4% 19.6% 5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.2% 14.9% 6.69
Remo to lead by 3 at any time 9.9% 6.6% 15.20
Santos to lead by 3 at any time 8.3% 6.5% 15.28
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos most corners 49.6% 46.8% 2.14
Remo most corners 41.1% 43.2% 2.32
Corners level 9.2% 8.4% 11.89
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.6% 87.4% 88.9% 0.98× 1.14
2-6 goals 77.6% 78.6% 73.9% 1.06× 1.27
1-4 goals 75.8% 78.6% 81.8% 0.96× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.7% 72.4% 69.9% 1.04× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.8% 63.5% 62.9% 1.01× 1.58
1-3 goals 59.1% 59.2% 68.8% 0.86× 1.69
3-6 goals 53.8% 53.1% 47.1% 1.13× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.9% 48.7% 43.2% 1.13× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.2% 48.7% 49.8% 0.98× 2.06
3-4 goals 39.0% 39.2% 36.1% 1.08× 2.55
1-2 goals 36.7% 39.2% 45.9% 0.85× 2.55
4-6 goals 31.4% 35.4% 24.2% 1.46× 2.83
4-5 goals 26.5% 30.2% 20.2% 1.49× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.8% 14.9% 11.1% 1.33× 6.73
7+ goals 3.2% 2.5% 0.6% 3.98× 39.43
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo never behind 40.2% 48.1% 2.08
Santos never behind 36.8% 44.8% 2.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.6% 50.8% 49.2% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.4% 49.2% 50.8% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.6% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.4% 48.4% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.3% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.7% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 91.9% 92.3% 95.4% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.0% 82.4% 88.4% 0.93× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 80.8% 82.4% 74.4% 1.11× 1.21
Under 3.5 goals 65.4% 66.3% 75.3% 0.88× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 57.0% 58.8% 47.6% 1.24× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 43.0% 41.2% 52.4% 0.79× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 34.6% 33.8% 24.7% 1.37× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 19.2% 17.6% 25.6% 0.69× 5.67
Over 4.5 goals 18.0% 17.6% 11.6% 1.52× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 8.1% 7.7% 4.6% 1.67× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 6.7% 1.15× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.6% 97.2% 99.3% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.0% 92.5% 95.0% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 78.5% 75.9% 86.6% 0.88× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 74.8% 72.6% 65.0% 1.12× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 55.4% 55.5% 68.0% 0.82× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 44.6% 44.5% 32.0% 1.39× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 25.2% 27.4% 35.0% 0.78× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 21.6% 24.1% 13.4% 1.80× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 9.0% 7.5% 5.0% 1.52× 13.25
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.4% 2.8% 0.7% 4.15× 36.35
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.2% 89.3% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.7% 71.0% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 64.8% 63.8% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 35.2% 36.2% 2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.3% 29.0% 3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.8% 10.7% 9.34
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 82.0% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 74.8% 78.0% 1.28
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 52.2% 53.1% 1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 47.8% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 25.2% 22.0% 4.55
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.0% 17.1% 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos not to score in both halves 74.7% 74.4% 1.34
Remo not to score in both halves 71.9% 74.3% 1.35
Remo to score in both halves 28.1% 25.7% 3.89
Santos to score in both halves 25.3% 25.6% 3.90
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 60.9% 60.2% 51.8% 1.16× 1.66
Only Remo scores 17.4% 16.1% 28.0% 0.58× 6.20
Only Santos scores 15.4% 16.1% 13.9% 1.16× 6.21
Neither team scores 6.3% 7.2% 6.7% 1.07× 13.95
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.8% 22.7% 26.9% 0.84× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 16.6% 17.5% 13.2% 1.32× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 12.9% 12.1% 19.1% 0.63× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 9.9% 7.6% 7.2% 1.06× 13.13
6 or more goals 8.1% 7.6% 4.6% 1.65× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 6.3% 7.6% 6.7% 1.14× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 52.2% 51.0% 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 29.8% 29.7% 3.37
No goals in 2nd half 18.0% 16.9% 5.91
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos not to win both halves 91.2% 93.9% 1.07
Remo not to win both halves 89.3% 88.1% 1.14
Remo to win both halves 10.7% 11.9% 8.43
Santos to win both halves 8.8% 6.1% 16.47
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Remo to win either half 54.1% 54.8% 1.82
Santos to win either half 50.3% 54.7% 1.83
Santos to win neither half 49.7% 45.3% 2.21
Remo to win neither half 45.9% 45.2% 2.21
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Santos not to win to nil 84.6% 83.0% 86.1% 0.96× 1.21
Remo not to win to nil 82.6% 83.0% 72.0% 1.15× 1.21
Remo to win to nil 17.4% 17.0% 28.0% 0.61× 5.88
Santos to win to nil 15.4% 17.0% 13.9% 1.23× 5.88
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.7% 27.8% 27.2% 1.02× 3.59
Remo by 1 19.2% 16.9% 25.8% 0.66× 5.90
Santos by 1 18.0% 16.9% 14.7% 1.16× 5.90
Remo by 2 11.8% 11.8% 14.2% 0.83× 8.46
Santos by 2 10.5% 11.8% 6.2% 1.90× 8.47
Remo by 3+ 7.6% 7.2% 9.2% 0.78× 13.80
Santos by 3+ 6.2% 7.2% 3.5% 2.07× 13.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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