Rennes v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 7
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 3
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.61 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+0.06 – +0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
50.4%
Draw
22.5%
Auxerre win
27.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.33 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 1.94 xGAuxerre 1.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 5' |
Rennes |
Anthony Rouault | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 5' |
Rennes |
Anthony Rouault | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 7' |
 Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 17' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Goal | Ludovic Blas |
| 17' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 21' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 26' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 30' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 36' |
Auxerre |
Ibrahim Osman | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 41' |
Auxerre |
Ibrahim Osman | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 47' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Rennes |
Valentin Rongier | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Esteban Lepaul |
| 62' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alidu Seidu |
| 66' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 66' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 71' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 72' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sékou Mara |
| 74' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 80' |
Rennes |
Seko Fofana | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 86' |
Auxerre |
Assane Diousse | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 90' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Danny Namaso ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Senaya DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Francisco Sierralta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Oussama El Azzouzi MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Osman MR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Josué Casimir DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Elisha Owusu Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Assane Diousse Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seko Fofana MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.44 | 1.04 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 1.06 |
| Quentin Merlin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.69 |
| Alidu Seidu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.36 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Breel Embolo FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.68 |
| Ludovic Blas DMR | 79 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.37 | 0.56 | 1.14 |
| Mohamed Meïté Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mousa Al Tamari Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |