Rennes v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 6
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-1.90 – +0.90
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
60.7%
Draw
19.1%
Lorient win
20.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLWLDW last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 15
from 18.4 xG
Lorient are finishing below their chances — 2.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLWLDWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 14.4 xG
conceded 13
from 16.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.93–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–1.58 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 1.90 xGLorient 1.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Montassar Talbi |
| 12' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng |
| 14' |
 Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lilian Brassier |
| 16' |
Rennes |
Alidu Seidu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 24' |
Lorient |
Igor Silva | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng |
| 26' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 34' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Rennes |
Valentin Rongier | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 43' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Rennes |
Alidu Seidu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 45' |
Rennes |
Alidu Seidu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 46' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 47' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 67' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 68' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 68' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 72' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 72' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lilian Brassier |
| 76' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.74 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 84' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 91' |
Rennes |
Elias Legendre | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alidu Seidu |
Players
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Quentin Merlin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Alidu Seidu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Breel Embolo FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Djaoui Cissé MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski DMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Mohamed Meïté Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Mousa Al Tamari Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ludovic Blas Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Sebastian Szymanski Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elias Legendre Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Igor Silva DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dermane Karim AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Pagis Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.74 | 0.18 | 0.86 |
| Arthur Avom Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nathaniel Adjei Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |