Rennes v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 13
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 10
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.46 – 0.22
Goals − xG
+0.89 – -0.61
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rennes win
38.1%
Draw
19.7%
Monaco win
42.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLWLDW last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 15
from 18.4 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–1.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.51–2.04 | 1-2 9% | 69% | 68% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rennes 3.11 xGMonaco 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rennes attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 12' |
 Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 19' |
Rennes |
Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mahdi Camara |
| 24' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Monaco |
George Ilenikhena | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 31' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 31' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 38' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohammed Salisu |
| 40' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 40' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 45' |
Monaco |
Kassoum Ouattara | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anssumane Fati |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 47' |
Rennes |
Mahdi Camara | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 49' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 50' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 59' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 59' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 69' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 70' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vanderson |
| 72' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.59 | From Corner | — | Goal | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 80' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 82' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 88' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 92' |
Rennes |
Valentin Rongier | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vanderson |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kassoum Ouattara DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.93 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Jordan Teze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.38 |
| Mohammed Salisu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.53 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Krépin Diatta DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Zakaria MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Anssumane Fati AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.08 | 0.69 |
| George Ilenikhena FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Takumi Minamino Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Lamine Camara Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Vanderson Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Paul Pogba Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breel Embolo FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.44 | 1.14 |
| Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Mousa Al Tamari DML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Djaoui Cissé MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Quentin Merlin Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ludovic Blas Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Glen Kamara Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Rosier Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alidu Seidu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |