Roma v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 8
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 2
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.71 – +0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
38.6%
Draw
26.4%
Atalanta win
35.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–1.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.58 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 64% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 1.71 xGAtalanta 0.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 11' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marten de Roon |
| 14' |
 Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 17' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 21' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 23' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stephan El Shaarawy |
| 31' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 32' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 44' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Devyne Rensch |
| 46' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 48' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Devyne Rensch |
| 53' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Éderson |
| 54' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 57' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 57' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 62' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 65' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Donyell Malen |
| 66' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Venturino |
| 69' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Venturino | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 70' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 73' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Venturino | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 74' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Devyne Rensch |
| 80' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Konstantinos Tsimikas |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.93 | 0.05 | 1.01 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.08 | 0.56 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Devyne Rensch DML | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.44 | 0.94 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.74 |
| Lorenzo Venturino Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Davide Zappacosta DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Giacomo Raspadori AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Éderson MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| Raoul Bellanova DMR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicola Zalewski Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Odilon Kossounou Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Honest Ahanor Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Mario Pasalic Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |