Roma v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.50 – 0.86
Goals − xG
+0.63 – +1.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
42.0%
Draw
29.8%
Juventus win
28.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–0.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–1.30 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 2.37 xGJuventus 1.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 11' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 23' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 31' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 32' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 35' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 38' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Niccolò Pisilli |
| 41' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 43' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 46' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Bremer |
| 51' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 52' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Devyne Rensch |
| 53' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.39 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 61' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 64' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kouadio Kone |
| 68' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 77' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 86' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 90' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Zaragoza |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Federico Gatti | 0.72 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Edon Zhegrova |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 1.36 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Niccolò Pisilli MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1.03 |
| Wesley DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.99 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.99 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.75 |
| Devyne Rensch DMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Neil El Aynaoui Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Zaragoza Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston McKennie DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.65 |
| Teun Koopmeiners MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mattia Perin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| Bremer DC | 89 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Francisco Conceição AMC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.50 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Jeremie Boga Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Gatti Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |