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Roma v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

4–1
2.38 – 0.83 xG
Shots
23 – 3
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
17 – 2
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
0.69 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+1.61 – +0.17
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.32.02.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Alexis Saelemaekers 12' — goalNikola Krstovic 39' — goalGianluca Mancini 58' — goalNiccolò Pisilli 65' — goalKouadio Kone 85' — goal
Roma 2.39 xGLecce 0.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Paulo Dybala 4' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 9' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alexis Saelemaekers 12' — Goal (0.13 xG, Open Play)Leandro Paredes 32' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Stephan El Shaarawy 32' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Alexis Saelemaekers 34' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Evan Ndicka 35' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Paulo Dybala 35' — Blocked Shot (0.42 xG, From Corner)Nikola Krstovic 39' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Alexis Saelemaekers 46' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Alexis Saelemaekers 49' — Saved Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Leandro Paredes 49' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 54' — Missed Shot (0.21 xG, Open Play)Niccolò Pisilli 56' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Mancini 58' — Goal (0.03 xG, From Corner)Kouadio Kone 60' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Angelino 61' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Niccolò Pisilli 65' — Goal (0.14 xG, Open Play)Santiago Pierotti 69' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kouadio Kone 71' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Stephan El Shaarawy 72' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Kouadio Kone 85' — Goal (0.13 xG, Open Play)Medon Berisha 90' — Shot On Post (0.01 xG, Open Play)Kouadio Kone 92' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Kouadio Kone 92' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Paulo Dybala 93' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)
Roma attacking right Lecce attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.07 Open Play Saved Shot Mehmet Zeki Çelik
9' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Gianluca Mancini
12' Roma Alexis Saelemaekers 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Goal Stephan El Shaarawy
32' Roma Leandro Paredes 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
32' Roma Stephan El Shaarawy 0.04 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Paulo Dybala
34' Roma Alexis Saelemaekers 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Stephan El Shaarawy
35' Roma Evan Ndicka 0.02 From Corner Blocked Shot Leandro Paredes
35' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.42 From Corner Blocked Shot Evan Ndicka
39' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.76 Right Foot Goal
46' Roma Alexis Saelemaekers 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Paulo Dybala
49' Roma Alexis Saelemaekers 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Leandro Paredes
49' Roma Leandro Paredes 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
54' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.21 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alexis Saelemaekers
56' Roma Niccolò Pisilli 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
58' Roma Gianluca Mancini 0.03 From Corner Goal Stephan El Shaarawy
60' Roma Kouadio Kone 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
61' Roma Angelino 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
65' Roma Niccolò Pisilli 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Goal Saud Abdulhamid
69' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
71' Roma Kouadio Kone 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mats Hummels
72' Roma Stephan El Shaarawy 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
85' Roma Kouadio Kone 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Goal Niccolò Pisilli
90' Lecce Medon Berisha 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Tete Morente
92' Roma Kouadio Kone 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Paulo Dybala
92' Roma Kouadio Kone 0.08 From Corner Blocked Shot Paulo Dybala
93' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Leandro Paredes

Players

Roma

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Paulo Dybala AMC 90 0 0 5 4 0.76 0.27 0.89
Kouadio Kone MC 90 1 0 5 0 0.33 0.00 0.69
Gianluca Mancini DC 90 1 0 1 1 0.03 0.05 0.45
Leandro Paredes MC 90 0 0 2 3 0.03 0.36 0.80
Evan Ndicka DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.42 0.72
Angelino ML 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.11
Mile Svilar GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stephan El Shaarawy FW 84 0 2 2 3 0.05 0.30 0.55
Mats Hummels DC 84 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.33
Saud Abdulhamid Sub 68 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.14 0.41
Alexis Saelemaekers FW 59 1 0 4 1 0.70 0.21 0.96
Niccolò Pisilli Sub 31 1 1 2 1 0.46 0.13 0.58
Mehmet Zeki Çelik MR 22 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.11
Mario Hermoso Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicola Zalewski Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nikola Krstovic FW 90 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.00
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Frederic Guilbert MR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kialonda Gaspar DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Patrick Dorgu ML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gaby Jean DC 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lassana Coulibaly MC 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ylber Ramadani MC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hamza Rafia AMC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ante Rebic FW 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tete Morente Sub 41 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.01
Remi Oudin Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mohamed Kaba Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Santiago Pierotti Sub 22 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.07
Medon Berisha Sub 22 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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