Roma v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 24 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 5
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 3
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+1.83 – -0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
65.5%
Draw
22.6%
Monza win
11.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are finishing above their chances — 2.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWDWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.4 xG
conceded 8
from 8.1 xG
Monza are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLWLLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.3 xG
conceded 24
from 17.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.17–0.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 2.17 xGMonza 0.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Monza attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 4' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 6' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Angelino |
| 9' |
Roma |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Eldor Shomurodov |
| 13' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 13' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 13' |
Roma |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 14' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Evan Ndicka |
| 17' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelino |
| 24' |
Roma |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niccolò Pisilli |
| 26' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 30' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 31' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.60 | Open Play | — | Goal | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 34' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 41' |
 Monza |
Silvère Ganvoula | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alessandro Bianco |
| 44' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kacper Urbanski |
| 46' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 59' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Roma |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Niccolò Pisilli |
| 61' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 64' |
Monza |
Kevin Zeroli | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Bianco |
| 68' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 72' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bryan Cristante |
| 74' |
Monza |
Andrea Carboni | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Keita |
| 78' |
Roma |
Mats Hummels | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 79' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Goal | Paulo Dybala |
| 90' |
Monza |
Tomás Palacios | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Monza
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Bianco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Stefan Lekovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pedro Pereira DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Arvid Brorsson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Andrea Carboni DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Dany Mota AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Patrick Ciurria AMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kacper Urbanski MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Silvère Ganvoula FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Andrea Petagna Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Zeroli Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kevin Martins Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Keita Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Tomás Palacios Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niccolò Pisilli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.34 | 1.58 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 1.17 |
| Mats Hummels DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 1.19 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.05 | 1.18 | 1.50 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Angelino DML | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.54 |
| Eldor Shomurodov FW | 71 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.03 | 0.88 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 71 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1.16 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Paulo Dybala Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| Leandro Paredes Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Devyne Rensch Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Anass Salah-Eddine Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |