Roma v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 10 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 9
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+1.55 – -1.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
66.2%
Draw
22.0%
Pisa win
11.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–0.64 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.14–0.94 | 2-0 11% | 59% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 1.45 xGPisa 1.08 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Pisa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 11' |
 Pisa |
Michel Aebischer | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 14' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 16' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 33' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Idrissa Touré |
| 41' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 42' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.82 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Devyne Rensch |
| 47' |
Pisa |
Malthe Højholt | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 51' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 57' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 60' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Donyell Malen |
| 82' |
Pisa |
Rafiu Durosinmi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 84' |
Roma |
Evan Ndicka | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Pisa |
Rafiu Durosinmi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Pisa |
Rafiu Durosinmi | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Stephan El Shaarawy |
| 91' |
Pisa |
Gabriele Piccinini | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Felipe Loyola |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niccolò Pisilli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Devyne Rensch DML | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Donyell Malen FW | 80 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.24 | 0.06 | 1.30 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.82 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Neil El Aynaoui Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Angelino Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Venturino Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mehdi Leris AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Arturo Calabresi DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Tramoni AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Stefano Moreo FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Malthe Højholt MC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Rafiu Durosinmi Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Felipe Loyola Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Francesco Coppola Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |