Roma v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 5
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.45 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.98 – -1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Roma win
56.4%
Draw
26.3%
Sassuolo win
17.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.49–0.69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.79–0.94 | 1-0 12% | 51% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Roma 2.98 xGSassuolo 1.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Roma attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 5' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 11' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 16' |
 Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jay Idzes |
| 20' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 24' |
Sassuolo |
Alieu Fadera | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 32' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Hermoso |
| 34' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niccolò Pisilli |
| 42' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 47' |
Roma |
Konstantinos Tsimikas | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 47' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Stephan El Shaarawy |
| 50' |
Roma |
Konstantinos Tsimikas | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 53' |
Roma |
Konstantinos Tsimikas | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Sassuolo |
Alieu Fadera | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 55' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 57' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 60' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stephan El Shaarawy |
| 68' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 69' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 75' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Goal | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 78' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Stephan El Shaarawy |
| 80' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stephan El Shaarawy |
| 81' |
Roma |
Mario Hermoso | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 83' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Stephan El Shaarawy |
| 90' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Hermoso |
| 94' |
Roma |
Stephan El Shaarawy | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paulo Dybala |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 1.06 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
| Paulo Dybala FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0.32 | 0.83 | 1.55 |
| Niccolò Pisilli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 1.19 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.61 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.86 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas ML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Sub | 52 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.51 | 0.72 | 1.38 |
| Evan Ferguson FW | 38 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Wesley Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Alessandro Romano Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Jan Ziólkowski Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Devyne Rensch Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Doig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Fadera FWR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luca Lipani MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aster Vranckx Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Moro Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edoardo Iannoni Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicholas Pierini Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |