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Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Rosario Central win
40.5%
model 37.6%
Draw
29.4%
model 29.2%
Argentinos Juniors win
30.2%
model 33.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.7%
  2. 1-0 11.7%
  3. 0-1 10.8%
  4. 0-0 10.6%
  5. 2-1 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.539.9% Under 2.560.1%
BTTS yes46.6% BTTS no53.4%
Rosario Central 1+69.5% Rosario Central 2+33.2%
Argentinos Juniors 1+66.5% Argentinos Juniors 2+29.9%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.10. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
2-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 61%
69.1% fair odds 1.45
moderate signal · 2188 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Argentinos Juniors (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 83%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 390 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Rosario Central.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rosario Central have an estimated 40.5% win probability, against 30.2% for Argentinos Juniors and 29.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Rosario Central and 1.09 for Argentinos Juniors.

Why Rosario Central

Nothing in the data singles out Rosario Central.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. A combined 2.28 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.19 to 1.09. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Argentinos Juniors can win

Argentinos Juniors carry the stronger rating, 1651 Elo against 1615. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Rosario Central, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Argentinos Juniors, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rosario Central: 61% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Argentinos Juniors: 65% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Rosario Central are the model's most likely outcome at 40.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.19–1.10 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.15–1.07 1-1 14% 38% 45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to win 37.1% 36.4% 41.7% 0.87× 2.75
Argentinos Juniors to win 33.2% 30.4% 27.8% 1.10× 3.29
Draw 29.7% 27.9% 30.6% 0.91× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central & not both score 23.0% 21.9% 27.8% 0.79× 4.57
Argentinos Juniors & not both score 20.4% 21.9% 17.2% 1.27× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 18.5% 17.9% 15.9% 1.12× 5.58
Rosario Central & both teams score 14.1% 13.3% 14.1% 0.94× 7.54
Argentinos Juniors & both teams score 12.7% 13.3% 10.7% 1.24× 7.54
Draw & not both score 11.2% 13.3% 14.8% 0.90× 7.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central & under 3.5 29.7% 26.0% 34.9% 0.75× 3.84
Argentinos Juniors & under 3.5 26.8% 26.0% 23.6% 1.10× 3.84
Rosario Central & over 1.5 25.0% 26.0% 27.6% 0.94× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 25.0% 21.6% 28.1% 0.77× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 25.0% 21.6% 28.1% 0.77× 4.62
Argentinos Juniors & over 1.5 21.9% 21.6% 17.5% 1.23× 4.62
Rosario Central & under 2.5 19.3% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.56
Rosario Central & over 2.5 17.9% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Argentinos Juniors & under 2.5 17.5% 18.0% 14.7% 1.23× 5.56
Argentinos Juniors & over 2.5 15.7% 18.0% 13.2% 1.36× 5.56
Rosario Central & under 1.5 12.1% 12.9% 14.2% 0.91× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 11.2% 12.9% 14.8% 0.87× 7.77
Argentinos Juniors & under 1.5 11.2% 12.9% 10.3% 1.25× 7.77
Rosario Central & over 3.5 7.4% 7.9% 7.0% 1.13× 12.70
Argentinos Juniors & over 3.5 6.3% 7.9% 4.2% 1.86× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 4.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.92
Draw & over 3.5 4.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.92
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (1UP) 51.4% 52.7% 1.90
Argentinos Juniors (1UP) 47.9% 43.4% 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (2UP) 37.1% 37.2% 2.69
Argentinos Juniors (2UP) 33.2% 31.2% 3.21
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 40.3% 41.1% 2.43
Rosario Central to win 2nd half 30.2% 34.2% 2.92
Argentinos Juniors to win 2nd half 29.4% 26.4% 3.79
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (+2.5) 95.0% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Argentinos Juniors (+1.5) 84.4% 82.4% 82.5% 1.00× 1.21
Rosario Central (+0.5) 66.8% 68.7% 72.2% 0.95× 1.46
Argentinos Juniors (+0.5) 62.9% 62.9% 58.3% 1.08× 1.59
Rosario Central (-0.5) 37.1% 37.1% 41.7% 0.89× 2.69
Argentinos Juniors (-0.5) 33.2% 31.3% 27.8% 1.13× 3.19
Rosario Central (-1.5) 15.6% 17.6% 17.5% 1.00× 5.69
Rosario Central (-2.5) 5.0% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 26.73
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to concede 68.3% 72.5% 68.1% 1.06× 1.38
Argentinos Juniors clean sheet 31.7% 27.5% 31.9% 0.86× 3.64
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors clean sheet in 1st half 61.0% 64.4% 1.55
Argentinos Juniors to concede in 1st half 39.0% 35.6% 2.81
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 6.5 corners 82.1% 81.5% 1.23
Argentinos Juniors over 2.5 corners 75.8% 75.9% 1.32
Argentinos Juniors under 5.5 corners 71.5% 71.5% 1.40
Argentinos Juniors over 3.5 corners 59.1% 57.1% 1.75
Argentinos Juniors under 4.5 corners 57.4% 57.1% 1.75
Argentinos Juniors over 4.5 corners 42.6% 42.9% 2.33
Argentinos Juniors under 3.5 corners 40.9% 42.9% 2.33
Argentinos Juniors over 5.5 corners 28.5% 28.5% 3.52
Argentinos Juniors under 2.5 corners 24.2% 24.1% 4.15
Argentinos Juniors over 6.5 corners 17.9% 18.5% 5.39
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 3.5 goals 97.6% 97.6% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Argentinos Juniors under 2.5 goals 90.6% 92.3% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Argentinos Juniors under 1.5 goals 71.0% 71.9% 78.2% 0.92× 1.39
Argentinos Juniors over 0.5 goals 65.7% 67.9% 57.6% 1.18× 1.47
Argentinos Juniors under 0.5 goals 34.3% 32.1% 42.4% 0.76× 3.12
Argentinos Juniors over 1.5 goals 29.0% 28.1% 21.8% 1.29× 3.56
Argentinos Juniors over 2.5 goals 9.4% 7.7% 6.7% 1.15× 13.05
Argentinos Juniors over 3.5 goals 2.4% 2.4% 1.1% 2.13× 40.85
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 1.5 in 1st half 93.1% 94.2% 1.06
Argentinos Juniors under 0.5 in 1st half 65.2% 68.1% 1.47
Argentinos Juniors over 0.5 in 1st half 34.8% 31.9% 3.13
Argentinos Juniors over 1.5 in 1st half 6.9% 5.9% 17.10
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (away no bet) 55.5% 57.5% 57.7% 1.00× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 44.5% 42.5% 42.3% 1.00× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors even goals 55.9% 56.9% 58.4% 0.97× 1.76
Argentinos Juniors odd goals 44.1% 43.1% 41.6% 1.04× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.2% 92.2% 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.8% 7.8% 12.80
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 52.3% 50.2% 1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals 47.7% 49.8% 2.01
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 45.0% 38.4% 2.60
Rosario Central to score 2+ in a row 25.8% 25.1% 3.98
Argentinos Juniors to score 2+ in a row 22.9% 19.5% 5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row 13.2% 12.1% 8.25
Rosario Central to score 3+ in a row 7.3% 5.6% 17.77
Argentinos Juniors to score 3+ in a row 6.0% 5.6% 17.87
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors corners (+3.5) 85.2% 84.5% 1.18
Rosario Central corners (+3.5) 85.0% 79.7% 1.25
Argentinos Juniors corners (+2.5) 77.5% 74.9% 1.34
Rosario Central corners (+2.5) 77.2% 74.9% 1.34
Argentinos Juniors corners (+1.5) 67.6% 65.8% 1.52
Rosario Central corners (+1.5) 67.3% 65.8% 1.52
Argentinos Juniors corners (-1.5) 32.7% 34.2% 2.92
Rosario Central corners (-1.5) 32.4% 34.2% 2.92
Argentinos Juniors corners (-2.5) 22.8% 25.1% 3.98
Rosario Central corners (-2.5) 22.5% 25.1% 3.98
Argentinos Juniors corners (-3.5) 15.0% 20.3% 4.93
Rosario Central corners (-3.5) 14.8% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 51.5% 45.2% 2.21
9-11 corners 28.7% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 19.8% 22.7% 4.41
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 86.4% 83.0% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 80.2% 80.7% 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 72.3% 72.7% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 62.6% 63.4% 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 60.2% 63.4% 1.58
Under 8.5 corners 51.5% 53.3% 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 48.5% 46.7% 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 39.8% 36.6% 2.73
Over 9.5 corners 37.4% 36.6% 2.73
Over 10.5 corners 27.7% 27.3% 3.66
Over 11.5 corners 19.8% 19.3% 5.19
Over 12.5 corners 13.6% 17.0% 5.88
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.8% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.73
1-0 12.1% 11.4% 14.2% 0.81× 8.74
0-0 11.2% 11.4% 14.8% 0.77× 8.74
0-1 11.2% 11.4% 10.3% 1.11× 8.74
1-2 7.2% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.47
2-0 7.2% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.47
2-1 7.7% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.47
0-2 6.2% 7.4% 4.5% 1.66× 13.47
0-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.51
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.98× 58.52
1-3 2.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.51
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.52
2-2 4.1% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.50
2-3 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.52
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.1% 14.90× 58.52
3-0 2.8% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.51
3-1 2.9% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.51
3-2 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.52
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.52
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 14.90× 58.52
4-0 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.49× 58.52
4-1 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.52
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.52
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.52
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.52
Any other score 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central leading at HT (DNB) 54.4% 55.9% 1.79
Argentinos Juniors leading at HT (DNB) 45.6% 44.1% 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or Argentinos Juniors (12) 70.3% 72.1% 69.4% 1.04× 1.39
Rosario Central or draw (1X) 66.8% 69.6% 72.2% 0.96× 1.44
Argentinos Juniors or draw (X2) 62.9% 63.6% 58.3% 1.09× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw at HT 76.7% 79.8% 1.25
Argentinos Juniors or draw at HT 72.1% 74.5% 1.34
Rosario Central or Argentinos Juniors at HT 51.3% 47.5% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw (1UP) 66.8% 75.7% 1.32
Argentinos Juniors or draw (1UP) 62.9% 71.7% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw in 2nd half 70.6% 73.6% 1.36
Argentinos Juniors or draw in 2nd half 69.8% 65.8% 1.52
Rosario Central or Argentinos Juniors in 2nd half 59.7% 58.9% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 69.0% 69.7% 1.43
Neither half drawn 31.0% 30.3% 3.31
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (DNB) 52.8% 51.0% 60.1% 0.85× 1.96
Argentinos Juniors (DNB) 47.2% 49.0% 39.9% 1.23× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to score first 46.0% 45.6% 2.20
Argentinos Juniors to score first 42.8% 41.8% 2.39
No goal scored 11.2% 9.8% 10.21
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 54.7% 51.5% 59.5% 0.86× 1.94
Both teams to score 45.3% 48.5% 40.5% 1.20× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 48.0% 44.3% 52.9% 0.84× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 31.6% 34.3% 27.2% 1.26× 2.92
Both score & under 2.5 13.8% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.12
Not both score & over 2.5 6.7% 8.4% 6.8% 1.24× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.7% 89.1% 94.2% 0.95× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 9.3% 10.9% 5.8% 1.87× 9.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 77.1% 75.6% 1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half 22.9% 24.4% 4.10
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 66.5% 62.4% 1.60
Both score 2nd half only 19.8% 15.9% 6.29
Both score 1st half only 10.6% 10.5% 9.51
Both score in both halves 3.1% 4.9% 20.47
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.3% 85.7% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 13.7% 14.3% 6.99
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 56.0% 57.3% 1.74
A goal in each half 44.0% 42.7% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.0% 47.4% 47.4% 1.00× 2.11
0-1 goals 34.6% 30.8% 39.1% 0.79× 3.25
4-6 goals 17.7% 20.2% 13.3% 1.52× 4.95
7+ goals 0.8% 1.8% 0.5% 3.95× 55.18
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to score exactly 1 36.7% 36.0% 35.9% 1.00× 2.78
Argentinos Juniors to score exactly 0 34.3% 33.9% 42.4% 0.80× 2.95
Argentinos Juniors to score exactly 2 19.7% 19.6% 15.3% 1.28× 5.11
Argentinos Juniors to score 3+ 9.4% 8.5% 6.7% 1.28× 11.79
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to score exactly 1 36.4% 35.6% 36.6% 0.97× 2.81
Rosario Central to score exactly 0 31.7% 32.6% 31.9% 1.02× 3.06
Rosario Central to score exactly 2 20.9% 23.3% 21.8% 1.07× 4.30
Rosario Central to score 3+ 11.0% 14.3% 10.0% 1.44× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 48.7% 52.5% 1.91
Rosario Central leading at HT 27.9% 25.5% 3.93
Argentinos Juniors leading at HT 23.3% 20.2% 4.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central -1: 2 62.9% 62.4% 1.60
Rosario Central -1: X 21.5% 23.6% 4.24
Rosario Central -1: 1 15.6% 17.5% 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:1) 62.9% 61.4% 58.3% 1.05× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 21.5% 24.3% 24.3% 1.00× 4.12
Rosario Central (0:1) 15.6% 17.8% 17.5% 1.01× 5.63
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:2) 84.4% 82.8% 82.5% 1.00× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.6% 11.0% 12.6% 0.87× 9.12
Rosario Central (0:2) 5.0% 3.8% 5.0% 0.75× 26.44
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:3) 95.0% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.7% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 42.05
Rosario Central (0:3) 1.3% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.16
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:4) 98.7% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.50
Rosario Central (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 2.09× 83.58
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (1:0) 66.8% 69.8% 72.2% 0.97× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 20.0% 21.7% 18.7% 1.16× 4.60
Argentinos Juniors (1:0) 13.1% 12.8% 9.2% 1.40× 7.80
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (2:0) 86.9% 88.4% 90.8% 0.97× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.2% 6.5% 6.3% 1.02× 15.50
Argentinos Juniors (2:0) 3.9% 2.3% 3.0% 0.76× 44.26
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.9% 48.0% 2.08
Halves equal 28.9% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.2% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to concede 65.7% 66.5% 57.6% 1.16× 1.50
Rosario Central clean sheet 34.3% 33.5% 42.4% 0.79× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central clean sheet in 1st half 65.2% 68.3% 1.46
Rosario Central to concede in 1st half 34.8% 31.7% 3.16
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central under 6.5 corners 82.2% 80.9% 1.24
Rosario Central over 2.5 corners 75.7% 76.6% 1.31
Rosario Central under 5.5 corners 71.7% 71.9% 1.39
Rosario Central over 3.5 corners 58.9% 57.5% 1.74
Rosario Central under 4.5 corners 57.7% 57.5% 1.74
Rosario Central over 4.5 corners 42.3% 42.5% 2.35
Rosario Central under 3.5 corners 41.1% 42.5% 2.35
Rosario Central over 5.5 corners 28.3% 28.1% 3.56
Rosario Central under 2.5 corners 24.3% 23.5% 4.26
Rosario Central over 6.5 corners 17.8% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central under 3.5 goals 97.0% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Rosario Central under 2.5 goals 89.0% 87.3% 90.0% 0.97× 1.15
Rosario Central over 0.5 goals 68.3% 67.9% 68.1% 1.00× 1.47
Rosario Central under 1.5 goals 68.1% 67.9% 68.3% 0.99× 1.47
Rosario Central over 1.5 goals 31.9% 32.1% 31.7% 1.02× 3.11
Rosario Central under 0.5 goals 31.7% 32.1% 31.9% 1.01× 3.11
Rosario Central over 2.5 goals 11.0% 12.7% 10.0% 1.28× 7.85
Rosario Central over 3.5 goals 3.0% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.45
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central under 1.5 in 1st half 91.1% 95.2% 1.05
Rosario Central under 0.5 in 1st half 61.0% 64.3% 1.56
Rosario Central over 0.5 in 1st half 39.0% 35.7% 2.80
Rosario Central over 1.5 in 1st half 8.9% 4.8% 20.99
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (home no bet) 52.7% 51.6% 47.5% 1.09× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 47.3% 48.4% 52.5% 0.92× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central even goals 55.0% 55.4% 55.7% 0.99× 1.80
Rosario Central odd goals 45.0% 44.6% 44.3% 1.01× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 39.8% 38.7% 2.58
HT 1-0 19.6% 18.8% 5.31
HT 0-1 17.0% 18.8% 5.33
HT 1-1 8.5% 7.1% 14.15
HT 2-0 4.9% 2.3% 43.70
HT 0-2 3.6% 2.3% 43.80
Any other HT score 2.3% 2.3% 43.89
HT 2-1 2.1% 2.3% 43.91
HT 1-2 1.8% 2.3% 43.93
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.3% 44.04
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central at HT / Rosario Central at FT 20.9% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.1% 21.7% 4.62
Argentinos Juniors at HT / Argentinos Juniors at FT 17.2% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Rosario Central at FT 14.5% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Argentinos Juniors at FT 14.1% 12.7% 7.89
Rosario Central at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% 16.65
Argentinos Juniors at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.5% 28.81
Rosario Central at HT / Argentinos Juniors at FT 1.8% 3.5% 28.92
Argentinos Juniors at HT / Rosario Central at FT 1.7% 3.5% 28.92
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to score last 46.0% 46.6% 2.15
Argentinos Juniors to score last 42.8% 40.3% 2.48
No goal scored 11.2% 9.2% 10.89
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 88.8% 90.8% 1.10
Rosario Central to lead by 1 at any time 51.4% 50.6% 1.98
Argentinos Juniors to lead by 1 at any time 47.9% 44.1% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 37.5% 34.8% 2.87
Rosario Central to lead by 2 at any time 20.1% 19.5% 5.12
Argentinos Juniors to lead by 2 at any time 17.5% 15.0% 6.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.1% 10.4% 9.64
Rosario Central to lead by 3 at any time 6.2% 6.5% 15.29
Argentinos Juniors to lead by 3 at any time 5.0% 1.6% 61.48
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors most corners 44.2% 43.5% 2.30
Rosario Central most corners 43.8% 43.5% 2.30
Corners level 12.1% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.4% 84.3% 1.04× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.3% 83.5% 80.0% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.3% 72.4% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
2-6 goals 64.7% 63.4% 60.6% 1.05× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.9% 63.4% 60.0% 1.06× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.0% 59.2% 55.7% 1.06× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.5% 53.2% 51.5% 1.03× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.0% 48.7% 47.4% 1.03× 2.06
3-6 goals 37.5% 39.2% 33.5% 1.17× 2.55
3-5 goals 35.7% 39.2% 32.9% 1.19× 2.55
3-4 goals 30.8% 35.4% 28.7% 1.23× 2.83
4-6 goals 17.7% 18.6% 13.3% 1.40× 5.37
4-5 goals 15.9% 18.6% 12.7% 1.46× 5.37
5-6 goals 6.7% 8.7% 4.9% 1.77× 11.44
7+ goals 0.8% 2.5% 0.5% 5.52× 39.48
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central never behind 40.9% 48.1% 2.08
Argentinos Juniors never behind 37.3% 44.5% 2.25
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.6% 50.8% 49.1% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.4% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.0% 57.6% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.0% 42.4% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.0% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.0% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.4% 95.5% 99.0% 0.97× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 92.5% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 88.8% 87.7% 85.2% 1.03× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 81.5% 82.4% 86.4% 0.95× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 65.4% 66.2% 60.9% 1.09× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 61.7% 61.7% 66.2% 0.93× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 38.3% 38.3% 33.8% 1.13× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 34.6% 33.8% 39.1% 0.86× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 18.5% 17.6% 13.6% 1.29× 5.67
Under 0.5 goals 11.2% 12.3% 14.8% 0.83× 8.10
Over 4.5 goals 7.5% 7.7% 5.3% 1.46× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 2.6% 4.5% 1.0% 4.36× 22.25
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.2% 97.3% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.3% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 91.6% 92.5% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 77.0% 75.9% 82.9% 0.92× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 52.6% 51.8% 46.4% 1.12× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 47.4% 48.2% 53.6% 0.90× 2.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 23.0% 24.1% 17.1% 1.41× 4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 8.4% 7.5% 5.8% 1.31× 13.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.7% 2.8% 1.1% 2.55× 36.34
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.8% 2.7% 0.5% 5.96× 36.40
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.3% 92.9% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 76.3% 78.8% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 60.2% 63.5% 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 39.8% 36.5% 2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half 23.7% 21.2% 4.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.7% 7.1% 13.99
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 85.8% 85.2% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 72.6% 77.7% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 62.6% 62.2% 1.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 37.4% 37.8% 2.65
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 27.4% 22.3% 4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 14.2% 14.8% 6.75
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors not to score in both halves 83.5% 84.4% 1.18
Rosario Central not to score in both halves 81.2% 84.3% 1.19
Rosario Central to score in both halves 18.8% 15.7% 6.39
Argentinos Juniors to score in both halves 16.5% 15.6% 6.43
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 45.3% 50.4% 40.5% 1.24× 1.99
Only Rosario Central scores 23.0% 22.4% 27.8% 0.81× 4.47
Only Argentinos Juniors scores 20.4% 22.3% 17.2% 1.30× 4.48
Neither team scores 11.2% 10.9% 14.8% 0.74× 9.14
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.2% 24.9% 27.2% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 23.3% 22.6% 24.4% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 19.8% 17.4% 20.3% 0.86× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 11.2% 12.1% 14.8% 0.82× 8.29
Exactly 4 goals 11.0% 12.1% 8.5% 1.42× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 1.01× 22.66
6 or more goals 2.6% 4.4% 1.0% 4.27× 22.70
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 37.4% 40.1% 2.49
1 goal in 2nd half 35.2% 39.8% 2.51
No goals in 2nd half 27.4% 29.8% 3.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors not to win both halves 93.1% 94.0% 1.06
Rosario Central not to win both halves 91.5% 93.9% 1.06
Rosario Central to win both halves 8.5% 6.1% 16.52
Argentinos Juniors to win both halves 6.9% 6.0% 16.64
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to win neither half 54.1% 55.0% 1.82
Rosario Central to win neither half 50.4% 54.9% 1.82
Rosario Central to win either half 49.6% 45.1% 2.22
Argentinos Juniors to win either half 45.9% 45.0% 2.23
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors not to win to nil 79.6% 78.1% 82.8% 0.94× 1.28
Rosario Central not to win to nil 77.0% 78.0% 72.2% 1.08× 1.28
Rosario Central to win to nil 23.0% 22.0% 27.8% 0.79× 4.55
Argentinos Juniors to win to nil 20.4% 22.0% 17.2% 1.28× 4.56
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 29.7% 27.8% 30.6% 0.91× 3.59
Rosario Central by 1 21.5% 24.1% 24.3% 0.99× 4.14
Argentinos Juniors by 1 20.0% 24.1% 18.7% 1.29× 4.14
Rosario Central by 2 10.6% 11.8% 12.6% 0.94× 8.47
Argentinos Juniors by 2 9.2% 7.3% 6.3% 1.15× 13.79
Rosario Central by 3+ 5.0% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.98
Argentinos Juniors by 3+ 3.9% 2.7% 3.0% 0.91× 37.01
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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