Saint-Etienne v Montpellier — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 2 · 2627
FRA-Ligue 2
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Saint-Etienne win
55.0%
Draw
25.4%
Montpellier win
19.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Saint-Etienne have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 21 from 22.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWLLWL last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 21
from 22.2 xG
Montpellier are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLLLLDLLL last 10
scored 2
from 6.4 xG
conceded 21
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.64–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.36–0.79 | 1-0 15% | 36% | 41% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne to win | 49.9% | 47.5% | 42.5% | 1.12× | 2.11 |
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.9% | 27.8% | 1.00× | 3.59 |
| Montpellier to win | 21.2% | 24.4% | 29.8% | 0.82× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne & not both score | 33.4% | 29.7% | 23.8% | 1.25× | 3.37 |
| Draw & both teams score | 16.7% | 17.9% | 18.9% | 0.95× | 5.58 |
| Saint-Etienne & both teams score | 16.5% | 17.9% | 18.8% | 0.95× | 5.58 |
| Montpellier & not both score | 13.6% | 13.3% | 17.7% | 0.75× | 7.54 |
| Draw & not both score | 12.2% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 1.46× | 7.54 |
| Montpellier & both teams score | 7.7% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 0.68× | 11.93 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne & under 3.5 | 39.7% | 34.9% | 29.4% | 1.19× | 2.86 |
| Saint-Etienne & over 1.5 | 34.4% | 30.9% | 30.0% | 1.03× | 3.24 |
| Saint-Etienne & under 2.5 | 26.3% | 26.0% | 18.5% | 1.41× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 25.1% | 26.0% | 20.8% | 1.25× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 25.1% | 26.0% | 20.8% | 1.25× | 3.84 |
| Saint-Etienne & over 2.5 | 23.6% | 21.6% | 24.2% | 0.90× | 4.62 |
| Montpellier & under 3.5 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 23.1% | 0.78× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 16.7% | 18.0% | 18.9% | 0.95× | 5.56 |
| Saint-Etienne & under 1.5 | 15.5% | 18.0% | 12.6% | 1.43× | 5.56 |
| Montpellier & over 1.5 | 12.4% | 12.9% | 20.2% | 0.64× | 7.77 |
| Montpellier & under 2.5 | 12.4% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 0.94× | 7.77 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 12.2% | 12.9% | 9.1% | 1.42× | 7.77 |
| Saint-Etienne & over 3.5 | 10.2% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 0.97× | 7.77 |
| Montpellier & under 1.5 | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 0.80× | 12.70 |
| Montpellier & over 2.5 | 8.8% | 7.9% | 16.3% | 0.48× | 12.70 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 0.66× | 20.93 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 0.66× | 20.93 |
| Montpellier & over 3.5 | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 0.69× | 20.93 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne (1UP) | 61.5% | 63.0% | — | — | 1.59 |
| Montpellier (1UP) | 35.5% | 33.8% | — | — | 2.96 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne (2UP) | 49.9% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Montpellier (2UP) | 21.2% | 23.3% | — | — | 4.29 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 40.6% | 41.1% | — | — | 2.43 |
| Saint-Etienne to win 2nd half | 39.1% | 36.3% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Montpellier to win 2nd half | 20.3% | 22.9% | — | — | 4.37 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier (+2.5) | 90.9% | 92.1% | 92.2% | 1.00× | 1.09 |
| Saint-Etienne (+0.5) | 78.8% | 78.5% | 70.2% | 1.12× | 1.27 |
| Montpellier (+1.5) | 75.7% | 78.4% | 80.8% | 0.97× | 1.28 |
| Montpellier (+0.5) | 50.1% | 52.4% | 57.5% | 0.91× | 1.91 |
| Saint-Etienne (-0.5) | 49.9% | 47.7% | 42.5% | 1.12× | 2.10 |
| Saint-Etienne (-1.5) | 24.3% | 21.6% | 19.2% | 1.12× | 4.64 |
| Montpellier (-0.5) | 21.2% | 21.5% | 29.8% | 0.72× | 4.64 |
| Saint-Etienne (-2.5) | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 1.01× | 12.63 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier to concede | 74.3% | 76.5% | 73.4% | 1.04× | 1.31 |
| Montpellier clean sheet | 25.7% | 23.5% | 26.6% | 0.88× | 4.26 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier clean sheet in 1st half | 55.8% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Montpellier to concede in 1st half | 44.2% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier under 6.5 corners | 81.7% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Montpellier over 2.5 corners | 77.4% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Montpellier under 5.5 corners | 70.6% | 72.3% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Montpellier over 3.5 corners | 60.8% | 61.4% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Montpellier under 4.5 corners | 56.1% | 56.9% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Montpellier over 4.5 corners | 43.9% | 43.1% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Montpellier under 3.5 corners | 39.2% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Montpellier over 5.5 corners | 29.4% | 27.7% | — | — | 3.61 |
| Montpellier under 2.5 corners | 22.6% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.13 |
| Montpellier over 6.5 corners | 18.3% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier under 3.5 goals | 99.1% | 97.6% | 97.2% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Montpellier under 2.5 goals | 95.5% | 97.5% | 87.5% | 1.11× | 1.03 |
| Montpellier under 1.5 goals | 81.4% | 81.4% | 68.3% | 1.19× | 1.23 |
| Montpellier over 0.5 goals | 54.4% | 53.7% | 67.2% | 0.80× | 1.86 |
| Montpellier under 0.5 goals | 45.6% | 46.3% | 32.8% | 1.41× | 2.16 |
| Montpellier over 1.5 goals | 18.6% | 18.6% | 31.7% | 0.59× | 5.38 |
| Montpellier over 2.5 goals | 4.5% | 2.5% | 12.5% | 0.20× | 40.74 |
| Montpellier over 3.5 goals | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 0.88× | 40.94 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier under 1.5 in 1st half | 96.0% | 95.7% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Montpellier under 0.5 in 1st half | 73.1% | 68.6% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Montpellier over 0.5 in 1st half | 26.9% | 31.4% | — | — | 3.19 |
| Montpellier over 1.5 in 1st half | 4.0% | 4.3% | — | — | 23.10 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne (away no bet) | 63.3% | 62.1% | 60.4% | 1.03× | 1.61 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 36.7% | 37.9% | 39.6% | 0.96× | 2.64 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier even goals | 60.4% | 59.0% | 54.2% | 1.09× | 1.70 |
| Montpellier odd goals | 39.6% | 41.0% | 45.8% | 0.89× | 2.44 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 92.0% | 92.4% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 8.0% | 7.6% | — | — | 13.10 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 49.8% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% | — | — | 2.01 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 44.7% | 38.4% | — | — | 2.60 |
| Saint-Etienne to score 2+ in a row | 33.9% | 28.8% | — | — | 3.47 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 14.2% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.23 |
| Montpellier to score 2+ in a row | 13.7% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.24 |
| Saint-Etienne to score 3+ in a row | 11.7% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.28 |
| Montpellier to score 3+ in a row | 2.6% | 2.6% | — | — | 38.81 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne corners (+3.5) | 88.3% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Saint-Etienne corners (+2.5) | 81.7% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Montpellier corners (+3.5) | 79.5% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Saint-Etienne corners (+1.5) | 73.1% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Montpellier corners (+2.5) | 70.7% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Montpellier corners (+1.5) | 60.2% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Saint-Etienne corners (-1.5) | 39.8% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Saint-Etienne corners (-2.5) | 29.3% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Montpellier corners (-1.5) | 26.9% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Saint-Etienne corners (-3.5) | 20.5% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| Montpellier corners (-2.5) | 18.3% | 20.0% | — | — | 5.00 |
| Montpellier corners (-3.5) | 11.7% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.32 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 42.3% | 37.1% | — | — | 2.70 |
| 9-11 corners | 31.0% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.13 |
| 12+ corners | 26.7% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 80.9% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.3% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 68.9% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 64.1% | 62.7% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 57.7% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 53.6% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46.4% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 42.3% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 35.9% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 31.1% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 26.7% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 19.1% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.96 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.5% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 1.09× | 7.28 |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 0.97× | 8.73 |
| 0-0 | 12.2% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 1.26× | 8.74 |
| 2-0 | 10.8% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 1.91× | 8.74 |
| 0-1 | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 0.75× | 13.47 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 0.91× | 13.47 |
| 1-2 | 4.9% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 0.28× | 58.50 |
| 3-0 | 4.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.56× | 58.50 |
| 0-2 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 0.43× | 58.50 |
| 0-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 0.46× | 58.52 |
| 0-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.70× | 58.52 |
| 1-3 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.62× | 58.52 |
| 1-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.85× | 58.52 |
| 2-2 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 0.29× | 58.50 |
| 2-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.01× | 58.52 |
| 2-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.78× | 58.52 |
| 3-1 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 0.38× | 58.50 |
| 3-2 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.69× | 58.52 |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.11× | 58.52 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.70× | 58.52 |
| 4-0 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.85× | 58.51 |
| 4-1 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.59× | 58.52 |
| 4-2 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.39× | 58.52 |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.78× | 58.52 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 11.11× | 58.52 |
| Any other score | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.56× | 58.52 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne leading at HT (DNB) | 68.2% | 74.3% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Montpellier leading at HT (DNB) | 31.8% | 25.7% | — | — | 3.89 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne or draw (1X) | 78.8% | 75.6% | 70.2% | 1.08× | 1.32 |
| Saint-Etienne or Montpellier (12) | 71.1% | 72.1% | 72.2% | 1.00× | 1.39 |
| Montpellier or draw (X2) | 50.1% | 52.5% | 57.5% | 0.91× | 1.90 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne or draw at HT | 83.7% | 84.4% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Montpellier or draw at HT | 65.0% | 66.3% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Saint-Etienne or Montpellier at HT | 51.3% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.10 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne or draw (1UP) | 78.8% | 84.1% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Montpellier or draw (1UP) | 50.1% | 59.1% | — | — | 1.69 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne or draw in 2nd half | 79.7% | 77.1% | — | — | 1.30 |
| Montpellier or draw in 2nd half | 60.9% | 63.7% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Saint-Etienne or Montpellier in 2nd half | 59.4% | 58.9% | — | — | 1.70 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 69.1% | 69.7% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Neither half drawn | 30.9% | 30.3% | — | — | 3.31 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne (DNB) | 70.2% | 71.4% | 58.7% | 1.22× | 1.40 |
| Montpellier (DNB) | 29.8% | 28.6% | 41.3% | 0.69× | 3.50 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne to score first | 55.6% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Montpellier to score first | 32.2% | 26.9% | — | — | 3.72 |
| No goal scored | 12.2% | 10.0% | — | — | 9.95 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 59.2% | 54.9% | 50.3% | 1.09× | 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 40.8% | 45.1% | 49.7% | 0.91× | 2.22 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 50.9% | 47.0% | 40.9% | 1.15× | 2.13 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 27.9% | 33.6% | 38.0% | 0.88× | 2.98 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 1.04× | 8.12 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 0.88× | 11.95 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 92.7% | 89.1% | 85.5% | 1.04× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 7.3% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 0.75× | 9.18 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 79.6% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 20.4% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.15 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 70.0% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 18.0% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.33 |
| Both score 1st half only | 9.6% | 6.8% | — | — | 14.67 |
| Both score in both halves | 2.4% | 4.8% | — | — | 20.63 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 88.0% | 86.0% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 12.0% | 14.0% | — | — | 7.12 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 57.6% | 57.4% | — | — | 1.74 |
| A goal in each half | 42.4% | 42.6% | — | — | 2.35 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 46.6% | 47.4% | 41.8% | 1.13× | 2.11 |
| 0-1 goals | 36.5% | 35.0% | 31.2% | 1.12× | 2.85 |
| 4-6 goals | 16.3% | 20.2% | 25.2% | 0.80× | 4.96 |
| 7+ goals | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.91× | 55.19 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier to score exactly 0 | 45.6% | 42.9% | 32.8% | 1.31× | 2.33 |
| Montpellier to score exactly 1 | 35.8% | 36.0% | 35.7% | 1.01× | 2.78 |
| Montpellier to score exactly 2 | 14.1% | 12.8% | 19.4% | 0.66× | 7.80 |
| Montpellier to score 3+ | 4.5% | 4.5% | 12.5% | 0.36× | 21.99 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne to score exactly 1 | 34.9% | 32.7% | 33.7% | 0.97× | 3.06 |
| Saint-Etienne to score exactly 0 | 25.7% | 26.5% | 26.6% | 1.00× | 3.77 |
| Saint-Etienne to score exactly 2 | 23.7% | 23.3% | 22.2% | 1.05× | 4.30 |
| Saint-Etienne to score 3+ | 15.6% | 18.9% | 17.8% | 1.06× | 5.30 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 48.7% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Saint-Etienne leading at HT | 35.0% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.96 |
| Montpellier leading at HT | 16.3% | 15.6% | — | — | 6.42 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne -1: 2 | 50.1% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Saint-Etienne -1: X | 25.6% | 26.6% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Saint-Etienne -1: 1 | 24.3% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier (0:1) | 50.1% | 51.1% | 57.5% | 0.89× | 1.96 |
| Draw (0:1) | 25.6% | 27.0% | 23.4% | 1.16× | 3.70 |
| Saint-Etienne (0:1) | 24.3% | 24.3% | 19.2% | 1.26× | 4.12 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier (0:2) | 75.7% | 79.4% | 80.8% | 0.98× | 1.26 |
| Draw (0:2) | 15.2% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 1.32× | 6.54 |
| Saint-Etienne (0:2) | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 0.98× | 12.94 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier (0:3) | 90.9% | 92.6% | 92.2% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.35× | 17.20 |
| Saint-Etienne (0:3) | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 0.64× | 42.09 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier (0:4) | 97.3% | 98.1% | 96.3% | 1.02× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.0% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 0.39× | 83.37 |
| Saint-Etienne (0:4) | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.56× | 83.53 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne (1:0) | 78.8% | 78.5% | 70.2% | 1.12× | 1.27 |
| Draw (1:0) | 14.6% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 0.73× | 7.80 |
| Montpellier (1:0) | 6.6% | 6.9% | 12.5% | 0.55× | 14.48 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne (2:0) | 93.4% | 94.0% | 87.5% | 1.07× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 0.91× | 15.55 |
| Montpellier (2:0) | 1.5% | 2.3% | 5.5% | 0.41× | 44.42 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 43.9% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Halves equal | 29.7% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.4% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne to concede | 54.4% | 53.2% | 67.2% | 0.79× | 1.88 |
| Saint-Etienne clean sheet | 45.6% | 46.8% | 32.8% | 1.43× | 2.14 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne clean sheet in 1st half | 73.1% | 68.3% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Saint-Etienne to concede in 1st half | 26.9% | 31.7% | — | — | 3.15 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne over 2.5 corners | 83.7% | 81.3% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Saint-Etienne under 6.5 corners | 73.4% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Saint-Etienne over 3.5 corners | 69.7% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Saint-Etienne under 5.5 corners | 60.9% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Saint-Etienne over 4.5 corners | 54.1% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Saint-Etienne under 4.5 corners | 45.9% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Saint-Etienne over 5.5 corners | 39.1% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Saint-Etienne under 3.5 corners | 30.3% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Saint-Etienne over 6.5 corners | 26.6% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Saint-Etienne under 2.5 corners | 16.3% | 18.7% | — | — | 5.36 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne under 3.5 goals | 95.1% | 96.3% | 93.4% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Saint-Etienne under 2.5 goals | 84.4% | 82.1% | 82.2% | 1.00× | 1.22 |
| Saint-Etienne over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | 74.2% | 73.4% | 1.01× | 1.35 |
| Saint-Etienne under 1.5 goals | 60.7% | 63.4% | 60.2% | 1.05× | 1.58 |
| Saint-Etienne over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 36.6% | 39.8% | 0.92× | 2.73 |
| Saint-Etienne under 0.5 goals | 25.7% | 25.8% | 26.6% | 0.97× | 3.88 |
| Saint-Etienne over 2.5 goals | 15.6% | 17.9% | 17.8% | 1.00× | 5.60 |
| Saint-Etienne over 3.5 goals | 4.9% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 0.55× | 27.36 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne under 1.5 in 1st half | 88.4% | 90.0% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Saint-Etienne under 0.5 in 1st half | 55.8% | 57.4% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Saint-Etienne over 0.5 in 1st half | 44.2% | 42.6% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Saint-Etienne over 1.5 in 1st half | 11.7% | 10.0% | — | — | 9.95 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 57.6% | 56.7% | 48.3% | 1.17× | 1.76 |
| Montpellier (home no bet) | 42.4% | 43.3% | 51.7% | 0.84× | 2.31 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne even goals | 53.3% | 50.6% | 53.4% | 0.95× | 1.98 |
| Saint-Etienne odd goals | 46.7% | 49.4% | 46.6% | 1.06× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 40.8% | 41.1% | — | — | 2.43 |
| HT 1-0 | 23.7% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.13 |
| HT 0-1 | 12.7% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.11 |
| HT 1-1 | 7.5% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.17 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.9% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.18 |
| Any other HT score | 2.6% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.88 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.2% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.91 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.0% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.92 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.2% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.98 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.3% | 2.3% | — | — | 44.05 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne at HT / Saint-Etienne at FT | 29.2% | 26.8% | — | — | 3.74 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 20.2% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.61 |
| Draw at HT / Saint-Etienne at FT | 18.8% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.94 |
| Montpellier at HT / Montpellier at FT | 10.4% | 12.6% | — | — | 7.91 |
| Draw at HT / Montpellier at FT | 9.7% | 6.1% | — | — | 16.51 |
| Saint-Etienne at HT / Draw at FT | 4.6% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.81 |
| Montpellier at HT / Draw at FT | 4.0% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.83 |
| Montpellier at HT / Saint-Etienne at FT | 1.8% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.92 |
| Saint-Etienne at HT / Montpellier at FT | 1.1% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.94 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne to score last | 55.7% | 56.5% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Montpellier to score last | 32.1% | 33.1% | — | — | 3.02 |
| No goal scored | 12.2% | 9.4% | — | — | 10.60 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 87.8% | 90.6% | — | — | 1.10 |
| Saint-Etienne to lead by 1 at any time | 61.5% | 61.3% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 38.3% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.87 |
| Montpellier to lead by 1 at any time | 35.5% | 34.7% | — | — | 2.88 |
| Saint-Etienne to lead by 2 at any time | 28.7% | 25.3% | — | — | 3.95 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 12.5% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
| Saint-Etienne to lead by 3 at any time | 10.5% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.65 |
| Montpellier to lead by 2 at any time | 9.6% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.12 |
| Montpellier to lead by 3 at any time | 2.0% | 1.6% | — | — | 64.53 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne most corners | 51.3% | 52.9% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Montpellier most corners | 37.2% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Corners level | 11.4% | 10.6% | — | — | 9.39 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 85.6% | 87.4% | 84.8% | 1.03× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 81.2% | 83.5% | 78.8% | 1.06× | 1.20 |
| 1-3 goals | 70.9% | 72.4% | 64.0% | 1.13× | 1.38 |
| 2-6 goals | 62.9% | 63.4% | 66.9% | 0.95× | 1.58 |
| 2-5 goals | 61.3% | 63.4% | 62.6% | 1.01× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 56.9% | 59.2% | 56.6% | 1.05× | 1.69 |
| 1-2 goals | 51.7% | 53.2% | 43.7% | 1.22× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 46.6% | 48.7% | 41.8% | 1.16× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 35.5% | 39.2% | 45.5% | 0.86× | 2.55 |
| 3-5 goals | 33.9% | 35.4% | 41.2% | 0.86× | 2.83 |
| 3-4 goals | 29.5% | 30.2% | 35.2% | 0.86× | 3.31 |
| 4-6 goals | 16.3% | 18.6% | 25.2% | 0.74× | 5.37 |
| 4-5 goals | 14.7% | 14.9% | 20.9% | 0.71× | 6.72 |
| 5-6 goals | 6.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 0.84× | 11.45 |
| 7+ goals | 0.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.27× | 39.49 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne never behind | 52.3% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Montpellier never behind | 26.3% | 29.8% | — | — | 3.35 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 48.4% | 50.8% | 49.8% | 1.02× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 51.6% | 49.2% | 50.2% | 0.98× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 58.5% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 41.5% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 54.4% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 45.6% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 97.8% | 95.5% | 93.7% | 1.02× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 93.4% | 92.3% | 87.7% | 1.05× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 87.8% | 87.6% | 90.9% | 0.96× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 83.1% | 82.4% | 72.9% | 1.13× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 61.7% | 52.6% | 1.17× | 1.62 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.5% | 61.7% | 68.8% | 0.90× | 1.62 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 38.3% | 31.2% | 1.23× | 2.61 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 38.3% | 47.4% | 0.81× | 2.61 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.9% | 17.6% | 27.1% | 0.65× | 5.68 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 12.2% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.36× | 8.10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 6.6% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 0.63× | 12.95 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 2.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 0.71× | 22.25 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.3% | 97.3% | 97.9% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 97.7% | 97.2% | 93.3% | 1.04× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 92.6% | 92.5% | 85.6% | 1.08× | 1.08 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 79.0% | 75.9% | 66.0% | 1.15× | 1.32 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 50.2% | 51.8% | 39.7% | 1.30× | 1.93 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 49.8% | 48.2% | 60.3% | 0.80× | 2.07 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 21.0% | 24.1% | 34.0% | 0.71× | 4.16 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 7.4% | 7.5% | 14.4% | 0.52× | 13.27 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 2.3% | 2.8% | 6.7% | 0.41× | 36.35 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 0.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.31× | 36.40 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 93.8% | 92.9% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 77.3% | 78.9% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 59.2% | 63.7% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 40.8% | 36.3% | — | — | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 22.7% | 21.1% | — | — | 4.73 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 6.2% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.05 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 87.0% | 85.3% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 71.0% | 77.6% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 64.5% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 35.5% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.66 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 29.0% | 22.4% | — | — | 4.47 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 13.0% | 14.7% | — | — | 6.78 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier not to score in both halves | 89.9% | 86.2% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Saint-Etienne not to score in both halves | 76.2% | 78.2% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Saint-Etienne to score in both halves | 23.8% | 21.8% | — | — | 4.59 |
| Montpellier to score in both halves | 10.1% | 13.8% | — | — | 7.25 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 40.8% | 46.6% | 49.7% | 0.94× | 2.15 |
| Only Saint-Etienne scores | 33.4% | 33.4% | 23.8% | 1.40× | 3.00 |
| Only Montpellier scores | 13.6% | 10.9% | 17.7% | 0.62× | 9.13 |
| Neither team scores | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 1.21× | 9.14 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 27.4% | 24.9% | 21.5% | 1.16× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 24.3% | 22.6% | 22.3% | 1.01× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 19.2% | 17.4% | 20.5% | 0.85× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 12.2% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 1.33× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 10.3% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 0.81× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 0.72× | 22.67 |
| 6 or more goals | 2.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 0.70× | 22.71 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 35.6% | 39.9% | — | — | 2.51 |
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 35.5% | 39.9% | — | — | 2.51 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 29.0% | 29.9% | — | — | 3.35 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier not to win both halves | 96.7% | 97.2% | — | — | 1.03 |
| Saint-Etienne not to win both halves | 86.2% | 88.0% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Saint-Etienne to win both halves | 13.8% | 12.0% | — | — | 8.31 |
| Montpellier to win both halves | 3.3% | 2.8% | — | — | 35.64 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier to win neither half | 66.8% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Saint-Etienne to win either half | 60.3% | 65.1% | — | — | 1.54 |
| Saint-Etienne to win neither half | 39.7% | 34.9% | — | — | 2.87 |
| Montpellier to win either half | 33.2% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier not to win to nil | 86.4% | 88.2% | 82.3% | 1.07× | 1.13 |
| Saint-Etienne not to win to nil | 66.6% | 69.6% | 76.2% | 0.91× | 1.44 |
| Saint-Etienne to win to nil | 33.4% | 30.4% | 23.8% | 1.27× | 3.29 |
| Montpellier to win to nil | 13.6% | 11.8% | 17.7% | 0.67× | 8.47 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.8% | 27.8% | 1.00× | 3.59 |
| Saint-Etienne by 1 | 25.6% | 27.8% | 23.4% | 1.19× | 3.60 |
| Saint-Etienne by 2 | 15.2% | 16.9% | 11.5% | 1.47× | 5.90 |
| Montpellier by 1 | 14.6% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 0.67× | 8.46 |
| Saint-Etienne by 3+ | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 0.92× | 13.79 |
| Montpellier by 2 | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 1.02× | 13.81 |
| Montpellier by 3+ | 1.5% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 0.49× | 37.09 |