Santa Clara v Rio Ave FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Santa Clara

10:30

Rio Ave FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 7h before kick-off

Santa Clara win

51.4%

model 51.1%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.5%

Rio Ave FC win

21.3%

model 23.3%

512721

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 15.4%
1-1 11.7%
2-0 10.4%
0-1 9.6%
0-0 9.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	39.7%	Under 2.5	60.3%
BTTS yes	42.8%	BTTS no	57.2%
Santa Clara 1+	75.9%	Santa Clara 2+	41.5%
Rio Ave FC 1+	57.4%	Rio Ave FC 2+	21.0%

Expected goals 1.42 – 0.85. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

1-2 goals

Multi goal · usually 43%

52.0% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 1537 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Santa Clara under 2.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 81%

82.8% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1110 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Santa Clara carry the stronger rating, 1508 Elo against 1417.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Santa Clara have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 27.3% for the draw and 21.3% for Rio Ave FC. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Santa Clara and 0.85 for Rio Ave FC.

Why Santa Clara

Santa Clara carry the stronger rating, 1508 Elo against 1417.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. A combined 2.27 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Rio Ave FC can win

Nothing in the data singles out Rio Ave FC.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Santa Clara, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rio Ave FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Santa Clara: 44% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rio Ave FC: 46% possession, 6.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Santa Clara are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 15.4%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	512623	1.42–0.85	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	482825	1.26–0.80	1-0 17%	34%	39%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara to win	47.8%	47.5%	42.2%	1.13×	2.11
Draw	27.7%	27.9%	26.6%	1.05×	3.59
Rio Ave FC to win	24.5%	24.4%	31.4%	0.78×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara & not both score	32.9%	29.7%	26.1%	1.14×	3.36
Rio Ave FC & not both score	16.5%	17.9%	19.8%	0.91×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	15.7%	17.9%	20.4%	0.88×	5.58
Santa Clara & both teams score	14.9%	13.3%	16.2%	0.82×	7.55
Draw & not both score	12.0%	13.2%	6.3%	2.09×	7.55
Rio Ave FC & both teams score	8.0%	8.4%	11.7%	0.71×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara & under 3.5	39.2%	34.9%	29.2%	1.20×	2.86
Santa Clara & over 1.5	31.0%	30.9%	31.5%	0.98×	3.24
Santa Clara & under 2.5	26.9%	26.0%	17.6%	1.48×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	24.0%	21.6%	17.2%	1.26×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	24.0%	21.6%	17.2%	1.26×	4.62
Rio Ave FC & under 3.5	21.4%	21.6%	25.5%	0.85×	4.62
Santa Clara & over 2.5	20.9%	21.6%	24.7%	0.87×	4.62
Santa Clara & under 1.5	16.8%	18.0%	10.8%	1.66×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.7%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Rio Ave FC & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	14.2%	1.27×	5.56
Rio Ave FC & over 1.5	13.5%	12.9%	22.4%	0.57×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	12.0%	12.9%	6.3%	2.03×	7.78
Rio Ave FC & under 1.5	11.0%	12.9%	9.1%	1.41×	7.78
Santa Clara & over 3.5	8.6%	7.9%	13.1%	0.60×	12.69
Rio Ave FC & over 2.5	9.4%	7.9%	17.3%	0.46×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.93
Rio Ave FC & over 3.5	3.1%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara (1UP)	59.0%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Rio Ave FC (1UP)	37.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara (2UP)	47.8%	49.9%	—	—	2.00
Rio Ave FC (2UP)	24.5%	23.7%	—	—	4.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.0%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Santa Clara to win 2nd half	36.9%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Rio Ave FC to win 2nd half	22.1%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (+2.5)	92.5%	92.1%	89.6%	1.03×	1.09
Rio Ave FC (+1.5)	78.6%	78.5%	77.7%	1.01×	1.27
Santa Clara (+0.5)	75.5%	78.5%	68.6%	1.14×	1.28
Rio Ave FC (+0.5)	52.2%	52.3%	57.8%	0.91×	1.91
Santa Clara (-0.5)	47.8%	47.7%	42.2%	1.13×	2.10
Rio Ave FC (-0.5)	24.5%	21.5%	31.4%	0.69×	4.64
Santa Clara (-1.5)	21.4%	21.5%	22.3%	0.97×	4.65
Santa Clara (-2.5)	7.5%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to concede	71.5%	76.5%	74.0%	1.03×	1.31
Rio Ave FC clean sheet	28.5%	23.5%	26.0%	0.91×	4.26

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC clean sheet in 1st half	58.3%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Rio Ave FC to concede in 1st half	41.7%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC over 2.5 corners	78.2%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Rio Ave FC under 6.5 corners	77.3%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Rio Ave FC under 5.5 corners	66.3%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Rio Ave FC over 3.5 corners	63.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Rio Ave FC under 4.5 corners	52.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Rio Ave FC over 4.5 corners	47.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Rio Ave FC under 3.5 corners	37.0%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Rio Ave FC over 5.5 corners	33.8%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Rio Ave FC over 6.5 corners	22.7%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Rio Ave FC under 2.5 corners	21.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC under 3.5 goals	99.1%	97.6%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Rio Ave FC under 2.5 goals	95.2%	97.6%	88.9%	1.10×	1.03
Rio Ave FC under 1.5 goals	80.8%	81.5%	65.4%	1.25×	1.23
Rio Ave FC over 0.5 goals	55.2%	59.6%	67.7%	0.88×	1.68
Rio Ave FC under 0.5 goals	44.8%	40.4%	32.3%	1.25×	2.48
Rio Ave FC over 1.5 goals	19.2%	18.5%	34.6%	0.54×	5.39
Rio Ave FC over 2.5 goals	4.8%	2.4%	11.1%	0.22×	40.94
Rio Ave FC over 3.5 goals	0.9%	2.4%	3.9%	0.63×	41.15

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC under 1.5 in 1st half	95.8%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Rio Ave FC under 0.5 in 1st half	72.6%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Rio Ave FC over 0.5 in 1st half	27.4%	30.6%	—	—	3.27
Rio Ave FC over 1.5 in 1st half	4.2%	4.4%	—	—	22.80

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara (away no bet)	63.3%	62.1%	61.3%	1.01×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.7%	37.9%	38.7%	0.98×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC even goals	60.1%	59.0%	58.6%	1.01×	1.69
Rio Ave FC odd goals	39.9%	41.0%	41.4%	0.99×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	92.8%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	7.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.37

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	52.6%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Not both halves under 1.5	47.4%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	42.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Santa Clara to score 2+ in a row	30.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Rio Ave FC to score 2+ in a row	14.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Either team to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Santa Clara to score 3+ in a row	9.8%	5.6%	—	—	17.74
Rio Ave FC to score 3+ in a row	2.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.34

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara corners (+3.5)	86.5%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Santa Clara corners (+2.5)	80.2%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Rio Ave FC corners (+3.5)	76.0%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Santa Clara corners (+1.5)	72.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Rio Ave FC corners (+2.5)	67.5%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Rio Ave FC corners (+1.5)	57.8%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Santa Clara corners (-1.5)	42.2%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Santa Clara corners (-2.5)	32.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Rio Ave FC corners (-1.5)	27.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Santa Clara corners (-3.5)	24.0%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Rio Ave FC corners (-2.5)	19.8%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Rio Ave FC corners (-3.5)	13.5%	15.8%	—	—	6.31

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.7%	35.1%	—	—	2.85
12+ corners	34.2%	32.0%	—	—	3.12
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	73.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	73.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.8%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	63.3%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 10.5 corners	56.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.2%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 9.5 corners	46.8%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 10.5 corners	43.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	36.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 11.5 corners	34.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Under 7.5 corners	26.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	26.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	16.8%	13.8%	10.8%	1.27×	7.27
0-0	12.0%	11.5%	6.3%	1.81×	8.73
1-1	12.1%	11.5%	11.0%	1.04×	8.73
0-1	11.0%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.73
2-0	10.1%	11.4%	7.0%	1.65×	8.74
2-1	8.1%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.46
1-2	5.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.46
0-2	4.1%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.57
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.59
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.59
1-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.58
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.59
2-2	3.2%	1.7%	8.3%	0.20×	58.57
2-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.59
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.76×	58.59
3-0	4.2%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.57
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.57
3-2	1.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.58
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.59
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	11.04×	58.59
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.59
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.59
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.76×	58.59
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.52×	58.59
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.52×	58.59
Any other score	1.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.58×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara leading at HT (DNB)	65.3%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Rio Ave FC leading at HT (DNB)	34.7%	26.9%	—	—	3.72

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara or draw (1X)	75.5%	75.6%	68.6%	1.10×	1.32
Santa Clara or Rio Ave FC (12)	72.3%	72.1%	73.4%	0.98×	1.39
Rio Ave FC or draw (X2)	52.2%	52.5%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara or draw at HT	82.5%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Rio Ave FC or draw at HT	67.1%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
Santa Clara or Rio Ave FC at HT	50.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara or draw (1UP)	75.5%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Rio Ave FC or draw (1UP)	52.2%	58.7%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara or draw in 2nd half	77.9%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Rio Ave FC or draw in 2nd half	63.1%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Santa Clara or Rio Ave FC in 2nd half	59.0%	58.9%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	71.1%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Neither half drawn	28.9%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara (DNB)	66.1%	67.1%	57.4%	1.17×	1.49
Rio Ave FC (DNB)	33.9%	32.9%	42.6%	0.77×	3.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara to score first	53.7%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
Rio Ave FC to score first	34.3%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
No goal scored	12.0%	10.1%	—	—	9.94

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	61.3%	56.5%	51.9%	1.09×	1.77
Both teams to score	38.7%	43.5%	48.1%	0.91×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	54.0%	47.1%	37.9%	1.24×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	26.6%	33.6%	37.2%	0.90×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.3%	11.0%	1.12×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	7.3%	8.4%	14.2%	0.59×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.1%	89.1%	85.9%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	6.9%	10.9%	14.1%	0.77×	9.19

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	80.7%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
Both teams to score in 2nd half	19.3%	26.8%	—	—	3.73

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	71.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Both score 2nd half only	17.0%	15.6%	—	—	6.40
Both score 1st half only	9.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.83
Both score in both halves	2.2%	4.9%	—	—	20.50

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.7%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	11.3%	14.3%	—	—	7.01

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	60.1%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
A goal in each half	39.9%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.8%	42.1%	45.8%	0.92×	2.37
0-1 goals	39.9%	35.0%	26.0%	1.35×	2.86
4-6 goals	14.8%	17.0%	27.7%	0.61×	5.90
7+ goals	0.5%	1.8%	0.9%	1.95×	55.39

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to score exactly 0	44.8%	37.0%	32.3%	1.15×	2.70
Rio Ave FC to score exactly 1	36.0%	36.0%	33.2%	1.08×	2.78
Rio Ave FC to score exactly 2	14.4%	12.8%	23.6%	0.54×	7.79
Rio Ave FC to score 3+	4.8%	4.5%	11.1%	0.41×	22.15

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.6%	31.5%	1.13×	2.81
Santa Clara to score exactly 0	28.5%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
Santa Clara to score exactly 2	22.5%	23.3%	23.6%	0.98×	4.30
Santa Clara to score 3+	13.3%	14.4%	19.2%	0.75×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Santa Clara leading at HT	32.9%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
Rio Ave FC leading at HT	17.5%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara -1: 2	52.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Santa Clara -1: X	26.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Santa Clara -1: 1	21.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:1)	52.2%	51.2%	57.8%	0.89×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	26.4%	27.0%	20.1%	1.34×	3.70
Santa Clara (0:1)	21.4%	24.3%	22.3%	1.09×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:2)	78.6%	79.4%	77.7%	1.02×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.9%	11.0%	12.1%	0.91×	9.08
Santa Clara (0:2)	7.5%	7.7%	10.4%	0.74×	12.98

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:3)	92.5%	92.6%	89.6%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.4%	5.8%	6.0%	0.96×	17.27
Santa Clara (0:3)	2.1%	2.4%	4.5%	0.53×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:4)	97.9%	98.1%	95.5%	1.03×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	3.2%	0.37×	83.28
Santa Clara (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.4%	0.86×	83.42

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara (1:0)	75.5%	78.4%	68.6%	1.14×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	17.1%	17.0%	17.8%	0.96×	5.87
Rio Ave FC (1:0)	7.4%	6.9%	13.8%	0.50×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara (2:0)	92.6%	93.9%	86.2%	1.09×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.7%	6.4%	7.1%	0.91×	15.51
Rio Ave FC (2:0)	1.7%	2.3%	6.8%	0.33×	44.30

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Halves equal	28.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara to concede	55.2%	60.9%	67.7%	0.90×	1.64
Santa Clara clean sheet	44.8%	39.1%	32.3%	1.21×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara clean sheet in 1st half	72.6%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Santa Clara to concede in 1st half	27.4%	31.4%	—	—	3.19

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara over 2.5 corners	84.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Santa Clara over 3.5 corners	72.4%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Santa Clara under 6.5 corners	67.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Santa Clara over 4.5 corners	58.4%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Santa Clara under 5.5 corners	55.2%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Santa Clara over 5.5 corners	44.8%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Santa Clara under 4.5 corners	41.6%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Santa Clara over 6.5 corners	32.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Santa Clara under 3.5 corners	27.6%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Santa Clara under 2.5 corners	15.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara under 3.5 goals	96.1%	96.3%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
Santa Clara under 2.5 goals	86.7%	87.2%	80.8%	1.08×	1.15
Santa Clara over 0.5 goals	71.5%	74.2%	74.0%	1.00×	1.35
Santa Clara under 1.5 goals	64.3%	63.4%	57.3%	1.11×	1.58
Santa Clara over 1.5 goals	35.8%	36.6%	42.7%	0.86×	2.73
Santa Clara under 0.5 goals	28.5%	25.8%	26.0%	0.99×	3.88
Santa Clara over 2.5 goals	13.3%	12.8%	19.2%	0.67×	7.83
Santa Clara over 3.5 goals	3.9%	3.7%	6.5%	0.56×	27.39

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara under 1.5 in 1st half	89.7%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Santa Clara under 0.5 in 1st half	58.3%	57.3%	—	—	1.74
Santa Clara over 0.5 in 1st half	41.7%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Santa Clara over 1.5 in 1st half	10.3%	9.9%	—	—	10.07

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.0%	51.6%	45.9%	1.12×	1.94
Rio Ave FC (home no bet)	47.0%	48.4%	54.1%	0.89×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara even goals	54.1%	50.7%	54.6%	0.93×	1.97
Santa Clara odd goals	45.9%	49.3%	45.4%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	42.1%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
HT 1-0	23.0%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	13.7%	11.1%	—	—	9.03
HT 1-1	7.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.11
HT 2-0	6.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.12
HT 0-2	2.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.77
Any other HT score	2.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.77
HT 2-1	2.0%	2.2%	—	—	44.78
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.85
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.2%	—	—	44.92

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara at HT / Santa Clara at FT	27.3%	26.6%	—	—	3.75
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Draw at HT / Santa Clara at FT	18.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Rio Ave FC at HT / Rio Ave FC at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Rio Ave FC at FT	11.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Santa Clara at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.11
Rio Ave FC at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.13
Rio Ave FC at HT / Santa Clara at FT	1.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.22
Santa Clara at HT / Rio Ave FC at FT	1.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.24

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara to score last	53.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Rio Ave FC to score last	34.4%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
No goal scored	12.0%	9.4%	—	—	10.59

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.0%	90.6%	—	—	1.10
Santa Clara to lead by 1 at any time	59.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Rio Ave FC to lead by 1 at any time	37.8%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	36.0%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Santa Clara to lead by 2 at any time	25.6%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Rio Ave FC to lead by 2 at any time	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Santa Clara to lead by 3 at any time	8.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.26
Rio Ave FC to lead by 3 at any time	2.3%	1.6%	—	—	63.62

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara most corners	52.6%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Rio Ave FC most corners	37.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Corners level	10.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	90.0%	0.97×	1.14
1-4 goals	82.2%	83.5%	83.2%	1.00×	1.20
1-3 goals	72.7%	72.4%	65.4%	1.11×	1.38
2-6 goals	59.6%	59.2%	73.3%	0.81×	1.69
2-5 goals	58.3%	59.2%	70.3%	0.84×	1.69
1-2 goals	54.1%	53.2%	42.5%	1.25×	1.88
2-4 goals	54.3%	53.2%	63.5%	0.84×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.8%	43.6%	45.8%	0.95×	2.29
3-6 goals	33.4%	35.4%	50.5%	0.70×	2.83
3-5 goals	32.0%	35.4%	47.6%	0.74×	2.83
3-4 goals	28.1%	30.2%	40.8%	0.74×	3.31
4-6 goals	14.8%	14.9%	27.7%	0.54×	6.73
4-5 goals	13.5%	14.9%	24.7%	0.60×	6.73
5-6 goals	5.3%	8.7%	9.9%	0.88×	11.46
7+ goals	0.5%	2.5%	0.9%	2.73×	39.56

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Santa Clara never behind	50.2%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Rio Ave FC never behind	29.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.2%	50.8%	50.1%	1.01×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.8%	49.2%	49.9%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.7%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.3%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.1%	95.5%	96.1%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	89.3%	1.03×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.0%	87.7%	93.7%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	84.7%	82.4%	71.6%	1.15×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	66.1%	66.3%	48.7%	1.36×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	60.1%	61.7%	74.0%	0.83×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	39.9%	38.3%	26.0%	1.47×	2.61
Over 2.5 goals	33.9%	33.7%	51.3%	0.66×	2.96
Over 3.5 goals	15.3%	17.6%	28.4%	0.62×	5.67
Under 0.5 goals	12.0%	12.3%	6.3%	1.95×	8.11
Over 4.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	10.7%	0.72×	12.96
Over 5.5 goals	1.9%	4.5%	3.9%	1.16×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.5%	97.3%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.1%	97.3%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	93.6%	92.5%	87.0%	1.06×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	81.2%	81.1%	63.1%	1.28×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	54.0%	51.8%	33.6%	1.54×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	46.0%	48.2%	66.4%	0.73×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	18.8%	18.9%	36.9%	0.51×	5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	6.4%	7.5%	13.0%	0.58×	13.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.0%	2.7%	4.1%	0.66×	36.39
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.5%	2.7%	1.0%	2.87×	36.43

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.3%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	78.8%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	57.9%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	42.1%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Over 1.5 in 1st half	21.2%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.7%	7.0%	—	—	14.28

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	88.0%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.1%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.6%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.4%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.9%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.0%	14.6%	—	—	6.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC not to score in both halves	89.5%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Santa Clara not to score in both halves	78.7%	78.5%	—	—	1.28
Santa Clara to score in both halves	21.3%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Rio Ave FC to score in both halves	10.5%	13.9%	—	—	7.17

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	38.7%	39.9%	48.1%	0.83×	2.51
Only Santa Clara scores	32.9%	33.4%	26.1%	1.28×	3.00
Only Rio Ave FC scores	16.5%	16.1%	19.8%	0.81×	6.21
Neither team scores	12.0%	10.9%	6.3%	1.73×	9.14

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	27.9%	25.0%	19.8%	1.26×	4.01
Exactly 2 goals	26.2%	25.0%	22.9%	1.09×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	18.6%	17.5%	23.0%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	12.0%	12.1%	6.3%	1.90×	8.29
Exactly 4 goals	9.5%	7.6%	17.9%	0.42×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	3.9%	4.4%	7.0%	0.64×	22.61
6 or more goals	1.9%	4.4%	3.9%	1.14×	22.64

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.7%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
2+ goals in 2nd half	33.4%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	29.9%	29.7%	—	—	3.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC not to win both halves	96.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Santa Clara not to win both halves	88.0%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Santa Clara to win both halves	12.0%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Rio Ave FC to win both halves	3.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.15

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to win neither half	64.2%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Santa Clara to win either half	57.8%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Santa Clara to win neither half	42.2%	40.6%	—	—	2.47
Rio Ave FC to win either half	35.8%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC not to win to nil	83.5%	83.0%	80.2%	1.03×	1.21
Santa Clara not to win to nil	67.1%	69.6%	73.9%	0.94×	1.44
Santa Clara to win to nil	32.9%	30.4%	26.1%	1.16×	3.29
Rio Ave FC to win to nil	16.5%	17.0%	19.8%	0.86×	5.88

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.7%	27.8%	26.6%	1.05×	3.59
Santa Clara by 1	26.4%	27.8%	20.1%	1.38×	3.59
Rio Ave FC by 1	17.1%	16.9%	17.8%	0.95×	5.90
Santa Clara by 2	13.9%	11.8%	12.1%	0.98×	8.46
Santa Clara by 3+	7.5%	7.2%	10.4%	0.70×	13.80
Rio Ave FC by 2	5.7%	7.2%	7.1%	1.02×	13.81
Rio Ave FC by 3+	1.7%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	37.01